Upon the invitation of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul visited Beijing on 13-14 May 2024. This is also important as it is the first visit of a South Korean foreign minister to China after six years. In addition to bilateral relations, the parties discussed various issues, including the details of the trilateral meeting with Japan, regional issues and the latest developments on the Korean Peninsula.
South Korea under the Yon Suk-yol administration, which won the presidential election in March 2022; Due to new security risks arising from North Korea, it began to improve its relations with the United States (USA) and also put aside its historical disagreements with Japan and began to explore opportunities for cooperation. In this context, the resumption of joint military exercises between the USA, Japan and South Korea starting from 2023 and the acceleration of the dialogue between the parties pointed out a critical development in the regional security conjuncture.
Moreover, Seoul offered to receive nuclear defense support from Washington in order to create nuclear deterrence against Pyongyang. At that time, South Korea planned to hold a joint nuclear exercise with the United States to respond to nuclear attacks from North Korea. However, such exercises or related discussions were denied by US sources. [1] In any case, the deepening of US-South Korea cooperation has become a major source of concern for China. As a matter of fact, the USA and South Korea have increased their military exercises in the region, including Japan, since last summer. [2] From Beijing’s perspective; Such steps may be part of a “self-siege” strategy.
As a matter of fact, the security of the Asia-Pacific is in danger due to North Korea’s ballistic missile tests. In the face of such moves that threaten regional stability and security, the increasing US defense support to countries such as South Korea, Japan and the Philippines leads to a further escalation of North Korea’s threat to South Korea. So there is clearly a security dilemma here. Because of the increasing threat from North Korea, South Korea is increasingly channeling itself into regional military alliances led by the United States. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and AUKUS are among these. Seoul has been attending NATO’s leaders’ summit as an observer for the last two years. At the same time, South Korea’s participation in the second pillar of AUKUS is also on the agenda. All these moves lead to a great reaction from China.
For example, in his statement on February 7, 2024, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called on South Korea to pursue a “positive, objective and friendly” regional policy. [3] In a telephone conversation with his South Korean counterpart Cho Tae-yul, Wang said that the two countries have close economic ties and should work together to maintain the stability and security of supply chains.[4] Cho Tae-yul stated that they expect China to play a “constructive role” in containing North Korea’s military threats. In general, the Seoul administration expects Beijing to help it restrain Pyongyang’s dangerous moves. Therefore, the main determining factors in South Korea-China relations are; “Threats originating from North Korea” and the recently rapidly developing “US-Japan-South Korea military partnership.”
Under normal circumstances, South Korea does not want to escalate the crisis further by joining US alliances. However, it can be said that normal conditions have disappeared in the region and an extraordinary situation has occurred. Seoul sees Pyongyang’s missile tests and military exercises as the reason for this. But more importantly, South Korea accepted [5] the claims of the Western World, especially regarding China, Russia and North Korea, and started to develop a policy based on this. In this context, on issues such as the East and South China Seas and the Taiwan Strait; South Korea’s increasing policy in favor of Western powers, for the first time like them its publication of the Indo-Pacific Strategy Document, and its interest in defense alliances lead to a serious deterioration in its relations with China. China urges South Korea to stay away from getting involved in issues, especially those related to the South China Sea. In a statement made on March 5, 2024, the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that it was “deeply concerned” about the tension between the Philippines and China in the seas in question. [6] Thereupon, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs called on “South Korea to make the right choice, avoid following others to exaggerate the issue, and avoid placing unnecessary burden on China-South Korea relations.”[7]
In Beijing’s view; Western actors, especially the USA, are making provocations in the South China Sea and other regional issues, exacerbating the problems and trying to create division and polarization in the region. As a result, regional states, including South Korea, feel they have to choose sides.
China’s aim is to soften the crisis environment caused by the polarization policy in question and to reduce regional tension in this context. In this context, China attaches great importance to the development of dialogue with South Korea and Japan. Indeed, regional issues can only be resolved by regional states and through dialogue and various negotiation channels among themselves. Apart from this, the moves of non-regional states deepen the divisions in the Asia-Pacific. If South Korea fails to establish a balance between China, its largest trading partner, and the United States, its main military ally, significant difficulties may await the Yoon Government in the coming period.
[1] “South Korea Says Talks Underway On U.S. Nuclear Operations Planning”, Nikkie, https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/N-Korea-at-crossroads/South-Korea-says-talks-underway-on-U.S.-nuclear-operations-planning, (Date of Access: 10.05.2024).
[2] “S. Korea, Us, Japan Stage Joint Naval Drill Involving Aircraft Carrier”, Korea Times, https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2024/01/205_367061.html, (Date of Access: 10.05.2024).
[3] “Beijing calls for ‘positive, objective, friendly’ China policy from South Korea”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/beijing-calls-positive-objective-friendly-china-policy-south-korea-2024-02-06/, (Date of Access: 10.05.2024).
[4] Ibid.
[5] “South Korean minister says China must push Pyongyang to curb nuclear plans”, FT, https://www.ft.com/content/2e5f9c78-ae3e-450b-b7ce-76bd6e9f03d6, (Date of Access: 10.05.2024).
[6] “China urges S.Korea to refrain from hyping up SCS issue”, Global Times, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202403/1308673.shtml, (Date of Access: 10.05.2024).
[7] Ibid.
