United States of America (USA) Foreign Minister Antony Blinken went to Astana on February 28, 2023 to attend the “C5+1” meeting, which is the main mechanism by which the Washington administration conducts its contacts with Central Asian capitals. Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan also attended.
The meeting in question is very important in terms of revealing the increasing importance of Central Asia in American foreign policy. Because, especially after the Russia-Ukraine War that started on February 24, 2022, the USA intensified its contacts with the Central Asian states. For the USA, the development of relations with Central Asia has three purposes. The first of these is related to the role that the states of the region can play in overcoming the energy crisis, the effects of which were felt at the global level after the Russia-Ukraine War. The USA wants Central Asian countries to take responsibility for meeting the energy needs of the West.
The second goal is related to the desire to evaluate the power vacuum created in the region by Russia’s focus on the war in Ukraine, and not being able to focus much on post-Soviet countries. In other words, Washington wants to be present in the region that the Moscow administration describes as the “near environment” within the framework of the Primakov Doctrine.
Thirdly, the USA is trying to develop its relations with the states of the region in terms of security in order to maintain its influence in Eurasia after its withdrawal from Afghanistan. In this sense, the issue of combating terrorism and radicalization comes to the fore.
On the other hand, it can be argued that Central Asian countries also want to gain some gains through relations with the USA. In this sense, it can be said that the states of the region have three basic expectations. First of all, the regional states carry out democratization reforms aimed at strengthening the state-nation unity. These reforms, on the other hand, mainly contain the tendency of liberalization and therefore Westernization. The regional capitals should ensure that their political stance serves economic development in a way that strengthens the state-nation unity; that is, the reforms aim to increase the welfare of the people. For this reason, it can be stated that states with a tendency towards Westernization expect investment from the USA, the leading actor of the Western World. In fact, the basis of the C5+1 format is the development of commercial relations.
Secondly, the states of the region, since they are post-Soviet countries, have started to be more sensitive about their national security, sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence after Russia’s intervention in Ukraine. Therefore, these countries have begun to see the USA as an important partner in their balance policies as part of their multi-vector foreign policy. This is in Washington’s interests.
The third expectation is cooperation in the fight against extremism and separatism against the increasing terrorist threats in the region within the framework of the Afghan Problem. Undoubtedly, this situation coincides with the expectations of the USA.
Within the framework of all this information, when we look at the messages given by Blinken during the C5+1 Meeting, it is seen that the US Secretary of State focused on the Russia-Ukraine War. In this sense, Blinken declared that all five Central Asian states would support their independence.[1] For this reason, the summit can be interpreted as a concrete step taken by the Washington administration to move Central Asian capitals away from Moscow.
In addition, Blinken met with his Kazakh counterpart Mukhtar Tileuberdi during his visit to Kazakhstan. At the joint press conference held by the two ministers after the meeting, Tileuberdi said:[2]
“The bilateral trade volume between Kazakhstan and the USA exceeded 3 billion dollars in 2022 and this figure is 37.2 percent higher than the results of the previous year. Exports are increasing; because the USA has been one of the biggest investors in Kazakhstan’s economy since 1993. Total foreign direct investment inflows from the USA to Kazakhstan exceeded $62 billion… With the participation of the American capital function, about 590 enterprises are located in Kazakhstan, showing that more US companies are interested in the Kazakh market.”
The statements of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan can be interpreted as investment in Astana’s main expectation regarding relations with Washington. Blinken, on the other hand, used the following statements at the same press conference:[3]
“We appreciate Kazakhstan for continuing to host more than 200,000 Russian citizens who fled their country after Putin started the war. I would also like to thank the people of Kazakhstan for generously providing Ukraine with food, clothing, medicine and other humanitarian supplies, and for establishing invincibility dorms in Kiev and Bucha.”
Blinken’s statements, on the other hand, indicate that the priority of the USA is to distance Kazakhstan from Russia and to persuade Ukraine to support it more. On the other hand, Blinken also met with the President of Kazakhstan, Mr. Kasım-Cömert Tokayev. In this meeting, Blinken emphasized the support given by the USA to the sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence of Central Asian countries; Mr. Tokayev also thanked the open support of the USA in the aforementioned issues.[4]
As it can be understood, the Washington administration is trying to turn its distance from Russia into an opportunity due to the distrust they feel about the sovereignty and independence of the post-Soviet countries after the Russia-Ukraine War. Kazakhstan is at the forefront of this insecurity. Because there is a serious Russian population in the north of Kazakhstan. This situation causes concern in Astana. Because, as in Ukraine, Russia may choose to use the Russian population as a reason for intervention.
On the other hand, as it is known, Kazakhstan has focused on reform processes especially after Mr. Tokayev became President. Therefore, it can be said that liberalization processes were discussed in the negotiations between the parties. In this context, it can be predicted that the USA will continue to support the reform processes in Kazakhstan and increase its investments in Kazakhstan. In addition, it can be stated that the search for energy-based cooperation between the parties, especially the Caspian, will intensify.
The second Central Asian country that Blinken visited before going to New Delhi to attend the G20 Summit was Uzbekistan. Because, just like Astana, Tashkent carries out reform processes with the aim of westernization. Therefore, it is not a coincidence that Blinken’s visit calendar includes two countries that stand out in terms of reforms. As a matter of fact, the first statement of the US Secretary of State, who went to Tashkent on March 1, 2023, was that he was looking forward to discussing bilateral relations and Uzbekistan’s reform plans.[5] Moreover, it is known that Blinken consulted with his Uzbek counterpart, Bakhtiyor Saidov, on this issue during the C5+1 Meeting in Astana. As a matter of fact, Saidov made the following statements regarding Blinken’s visit:[6]
“We appreciate the US administration’s interest and support for President Mirziyoyev’s reform agenda aimed at deepening good and friendly relations with our neighbors, as well as ensuring good governance, the rule of law, and human rights.”
As can be understood, Uzbekistan attaches importance to the support of the Washington administration regarding the reform processes. The USA is also aware that the reform processes carried out in Uzbekistan are at one point an effort to westernize. Of course, this situation is due to the decrease in the influence of Russia in Central Asia and the West in general; In particular, it means increasing the influence of the USA. This indicates a situation in line with the messages given by Blinken on the occasion of the C5+1 Meeting. As a reflection of this, the interest of the USA in Uzbekistan is increasing. The most important expectation of the Tashkent administration is to attract investment to the country within the framework of the 2030 Development Strategy. For this reason, it can be argued that the investments of US companies towards the country will increase.
On the other hand, it can be said that the fate of the helicopters and planes that came to Uzbekistan with the soldiers of the deposed regime, which were given to the ousted regime of Afghanistan by the USA and fled after the Taliban entered Kabul, were discussed during the negotiations between the parties. Currently, the transfer of these military vehicles to Uzbekistan by the USA is on the agenda. Therefore, it is possible to claim that this issue has also been discussed, although it is not clearly reflected in the press. This, in turn, may open the door to the development of security-based cooperation in US-Uzbekistan relations. At the same time, the process may create an environment in which US-Uzbekistan relations will deepen in the context of the Afghan Problem.
As a result, Blinken is trying to take advantage of the C5+1 mechanism to break Russia’s influence in Central Asia. While doing this, it attaches special importance to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, which have taken important steps towards Westernization. In this context, the expectation of the USA; while being shaped by energy, geopolitical and security factors, regional capitals, especially Astana and Tashkent; It has expectations such as attracting foreign direct investment, supporting the reform processes, developing cooperation in the field of security in the context of the Afghan Problem and supporting their territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence by the USA.
[1] “Blinken Warns Central Asia of Dangers from War in Ukraine”, AP News, https://apnews.com/article/politics-kazakhstan-government-kassym-jomart-tokayev-antony-blinken-uzbekistan-53c2b369350d2870aae2356ade4434f1, (Date of Accession: 01.03.2023).
[2] “Secretary Antony J. Blinken and Kazakhstan Foreign Minister Mukhtar Tileuberdi At a Joint Press Availability”, U. S. Department of State, https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-and-kazakhstan-foreign-minister-mukhtar-tileuberdi-at-a-joint-press-availability/, (Date of Accession: 01.03.2023).
[3] Ibid.
[4] “Blinken in Kazakhstan for Central Asia Talks Amid Ukraine War”, Daily Sabah, https://www.dailysabah.com/world/asia-pacific/blinken-in-kazakhstan-for-central-asia-talks-amid-ukraine-war, (Date of Accession: 01.03.2023).
[5] “Blinken to Discuss Reforms in Uzbekistan Visit”, Voice of America, https://www.voanews.com/a/blinken-to-discuss-reforms-in-uzbekistan-visit/6984637.html, (Date of Accession: 01.03.2023).
[6] Ibid.
