The last few years have been eventful for the South Caucasus region, here we can recall the beginning of a full-scale war in Ukraine, which affected all neighboring countries, and Azerbaijan’s anti-terror operation in Karabakh. First, we would like to characterize the situation in which Georgia is now. Georgia has specific relations with Russia, on the one hand Russia sponsored separatists in Georgia, then in 2008 there was a war and part of Georgia is still actually occupied. These events influenced the attitude of Georgians towards Russians, for example, when Russian citizens left their country because of mobilization, many Georgians met them negatively.
At the same time, the Georgian government helps to circumvent Russia’s sanctions and has good relations with the Kremlin. This position during the war in Ukraine is not only the cause of misunderstanding with the West, but also leads to internal instability. Especially in the last year, the opposition and the ruling Georgian Dream party were constantly in conflict, the country was shaken by internal political battles not without the participation of external players interfering in the internal affairs of Georgia, which, first of all, was required to open a “second front” against Russia and impose sanctions against it, the authorities did not take such a step, the Prime Minister of Georgia stated that these sanctions will not have an impact on the Russian economy, but for his country trade turnover with the Russian Federation is critically important.[i] But despite this, the government retained power and was able to capitalize on being between the two opposing sides.
Georgia still has good relations with the West and plans to integrate into the EU. And by the end of this year, Georgia finally received EU candidate status, which was a dream of a significant part of the population. [ii] In Tbilisi, tens of thousands of people took to the streets to celebrate this “historic EU decision.” The latter was probably forced to accept it in order not to sever ties with the country and to prevent Georgia from moving even closer to Russia, leaving Georgians without political alternatives.
It is worth clarifying why Georgia is so important for external actors. The South Caucasus has an important geopolitical significance because it is located near major regions such as Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia. Georgia is a very important part of this region as it has access to the sea and borders with Russia, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey. The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia is not over despite Azerbaijan’s successful military operation and its attempts to resolve relations, and until this conflict is over and the Zangezur corridor is fully operational, Georgia remains a logistically important country.
Georgia is also important in the context of geopolitical struggle. For Russia, Georgia is important for circumventing sanctions and maintaining influence in the South Caucasus region, as its influence has begun to decline in recent years. It is also important for Russia to prevent Georgia from gaining stability and joining the EU, because then the influence of Russia’s rivals will increase and it may bring a threat to Russia in the region in the long run. At the same time, it is important for the EU to prevent Russia from consolidating its influence in the region, because then it will be easier for Russia to circumvent sanctions and trade with Iran through the territory of Georgia. Since the EU and the US are more interested in the Caucasus, it is very important for them to increase their influence on Georgia and strengthen the relationship between the EU and Georgia, which will bring not only economic and political benefits, but will also help in confronting Russia.
It is worth noting that many young people in Georgia really want to pursue a pro-Western course, integration with the EU. The Georgian government also wants integration with the EU, but at the same time they do not want to give up relations with Moscow and are negotiating a “strategic partnership” agreement with China.[iii] All external players are aware of their capabilities in Georgia and understand how unstable the situation can be, therefore the importance of Georgia in the region will remain high and major geopolitical actors will only intensify their struggle for influence in this state, which may cause unforeseen consequences in the future.
- “Georgia Will Not Sanction Russia”, Al-Jazeera, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/24/where-is-the-logic-georgia-will-not-sanction-russia-says-pm, (Date of Accession: 24.05.2023).
- “Georgia Celebrates Gaining EU Candidate Status”, Euronews, https://www.euronews.com/2023/12/16/georgia-celebrates-gaining-eu-candidate-status, (Date of Accession: 24.05.2023).
- “Georgians Say They Want To Join Europe, But Not Like This”, POLITICO, https://www.politico.eu/article/georgia-european-union-russia-candidate-status-bidzina-ivanishvili-mikhail-saakashvili/, (Date of Accession: 24.05.2023).
