Georgia witnessed violent protests between March 6-10, 2023. The reason for the protests was the protests against the draft law on Transparency of Foreign Influence, which was to be passed by the Georgian Parliament. Allegations that the law is a Russian law have been raised. For this reason, the protesters took to the streets, combined with the march on March 8, Women’s Day, and the events widened. Undoubtedly, it would be incomplete and wrong to read these events as a Georgian issue only.
As it will be recalled, Georgia witnessed the Rose Revolution led by Mikheil Saakashvili in 2003. After this process, the Tbilisi administration turned its face towards the West. It is obvious that this development in the post-Soviet geography disturbed Russia. By 2008, the Russo-Georgian War took place, marking a major break in both regional and global geopolitics.
After the aforementioned period, Georgia tended to pursue a more balanced policy. Because there was a period when the Russian Army was approaching Tbilisi and Abkhazia and South Ossetia were trying to become independent and the support of the West remained limited. Afterwards, Georgia continued to struggle with economic problems, its territorial integrity was damaged and Europe maintained its relations with Russia.
It is possible to say that this situation has created disappointment in Georgia. Especially in the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine War, it can be argued that the Western World’s total support for Kiev deepened the resentment in Tbilisi.
Acting on the fact that a power like Russia is right next to it, the Tbilisi administration is careful not to adopt an attitude that would take a direct front against Moscow. From a realist point of view, it is obvious that it is not right to engage in a potentially losing conflict. For this reason, it is worth noting that Georgia is trying to improve its relations with actors without taking any steps that would harm its national security and is cautious about Western policies that would pit it against Russia.
However, instead of relying solely on the West, Tbilisi has turned its geopolitical position into a tool in a changing world and aims to become an important hub within the scope of projects such as the Central Corridor, the Belt and Road Initiative and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).
This policy of Tbilisi actually involves a positioning that the West does not want. Because Georgia’s evolution into a more independent and autonomous actor acting on the basis of the balance of power is a significant loss for the West in terms of Russia’s containment in both the Black Sea and the South Caucasus. Moreover, the increasing influence of different actors in Georgia within the scope of the Belt and Road Initiative and INSTC also worries the West.
At this point, one can clearly argue that the protests in Georgia are a reflection of a geopolitical rupture. In particular, one protester allegedly said, “As we all know, this is a Russian law. We don’t want to be part of the former Soviet Union. We want to be part of the EU. We want to get closer to the West.” These words summarize how foreign policy and thus geopolitics affect the street.[1]
As is known, the United States of America (USA) made a threatening statement regarding the protests. On March 7, 2023, US State Department Spokesperson Ned Price stated that Georgia has taken important steps towards democratization and has become closer to the Euro-Atlantic world, but that this situation is changing and that people have tools they can use if they are prevented from exercising their democratic rights.[2] This situation reveals the discomfort of the US, which has the potential to use “sanctions” as a tool.
In parallel to the US, the European Union (EU) also announced its opposition to the draft law. Josep Borrell, the High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, described the bill as a bad development for the Georgian people and underlined that it is incompatible with the values and standards of the EU. In this context, the law is “contrary to Georgia’s goal of joining the EU” and will affect relations.[3]
Russia, on the other hand, is disturbed by these protests. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that the events in Georgia reminded him of the protests in Ukraine in 2014 that toppled a Kremlin-friendly government. He also likened the events to a coup attempt planned to create tension on the Russian borders.[4] On the other hand, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that they had nothing to do with the law and that it was not their fault.[5] Peskov claimed that an “invisible hand” wanted to involve anti-Russian elements in the protests, referring to the West. In addition, Russia is concerned about the risk of provocations against Abkhazia and South Ossetia.[6]
It should also be noted that China has recently started to pay more attention to Georgia. As one of the hubs of the Belt and Road Initiative’s Central Corridor extending to Europe via the Black Sea, Georgia is an important geopolitical, geostrategic and geoeconomic actor. Increasing trade in the South Caucasus and the corridors being discussed more and more encourage Georgia to pursue an independent policy. While Beijing’s relations with the world are disturbing Washington, the US is using the growing Chinese investments in Georgia as an argument to turn the region into a competitive arena.[7]
As a result, Georgia is affected by the changes and transformations in the world system. In this process, Tbilisi’s disappointment in 2008 and its policy development by taking into account its national interests are viewed negatively by the West. To emphasize, the West’s concern is the weakening of its instruments of influence in Georgia. Russia, on the other hand, is happy with Tbilisi’s strained relations with the West. China, on the other hand, is trying to increase its bilateral and regional relations and trade volume. All these data prevent the interpretation of the developments in Georgia as a purely domestic political development.
[1] “Gürcistan’da ‘Yabancı Ajan Yasa Tasarısı’ Protestoları Sürüyor; Polis, Eylemcileri Tazyikli Suyla Dağıttı”, BBC Türkçe, https://www.bbc.com/turkce/articles/cv2vjz0ygk4o, (Date of Accession: 24.03.2023).
[2] “Department Press Briefing-March 7, 2023”, U.S. Department of State, https://www.state.gov/briefings/department-press-briefing-march-7-2023/, (Date of Accession: 24.03.2023).
[3] “Georgia: Statement By the High Representative on the Adoption of the “Foreign İnfluence” Law”, European Union External Action, https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/georgia-statement-high-representative-adoption-%E2%80%9Cforeign-influence%E2%80%9D-law_en, (Date of Accession: 24.03.2023).
[4] “Russia Denounces Georgia Protests as Coup Attempt”, Le Monde, https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/03/10/russia-denounces-georgia-protests-as-coup-attempt_6018876_4.html, (Date of Accession: 24.03.2023).
[5] “Kremlin Spokesman Says Unrest in Georgia Cause for Concern, not Russia’s Fault”, TASS, https://tass.com/politics/1586441, (Date of Accession: 24.03.2023).
[6] “Kremlin Points to ‘Visible Hand’ Seeking to Add Anti-Russia Elements to Georgia’s Unrest”, TASS, https://tass.com/politics/1587009, (Date of Accession: 24.03.2023).
[7] “Interest in Georgia’s Port Infrastructure up 250% Amid Ukraine War”, Agenda.ge, https://agenda.ge/en/news/2022/952, (Date of Accession: 24.03.2023).
