Russia, which is the successor of the Soviet Union, is a state with both imperial and superpower ideals in mind. In Russia, the public is also expected to have the same mindset. However, many things have changed for the Russian people since the end of the Cold War. The most important proof of this is people leaving the country in order to not be recruited following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statement on “partial mobilization.” It is seen that thousands of people move to various parts of the world, especially to nearby geographies.
This situation reveals that Putin’s decisions create discomfort for the Russian people. The fact that the population raised in the country moves out of the border and does not join the army indicates that Russians do not approve of the decisions taken, causing a manpower shortage needed by Russia to continue the war.
As it will be remembered, Russia held a controversial referendum in Crimea on 16 March 2014, which was not recognized by the vast majority of the world. Similarly, controversial referendums were held in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson recently. These referendums, which have not been accepted by the international community, were held in an environment where demography is disrupted and the referendum process was not controlled adequately. In the statement made on 27 September 2022, it was claimed that the results of the ballot box showed that all four regions wanted to join Russia.
In the regions corresponding to approximately 15% of the territory of Ukraine, through referendums, Russia tries to declare that the territory in question belongs to itself rather than legitimizing the status quo of the places occupied to reassure its international credibility. In short, as it happened in Crimea, Russia aims to conduct the same “fait accompli policy” in the regions it has annexed in violation of international law. Moscow is aware that it will not get to make the international community accept its demands with controversial referendums. Putin’s goal is rather to convince the Russian people about the war.
The Kremlin’s rhetoric that Russians have been assimilated in other parts of the world is also caused by the reasons before. In this case, referendums are presented as the request of the Russians in the regions to join Russia. Thus, the hypothesis that the annexed places constitute the historical lands of Russia is being spread. In other words, the Kremlin spreads the argument that the Russian people are being recruited to defend their own homeland, not against the occupied lands. As a matter of fact, Russia is trying to establish the idea of self-defence over the historically Russian territory that would be re-joined to the homeland through referendums. In other words, Moscow wants to ensure the internal legitimacy of the war through referendums. Therefore, it can be said that the Kremlin uses referendums as a tool.
On the other hand, Russia stated before that it was conducting a “special operation” in Ukraine, claiming that its purpose in the early days of the war was a regime change in Kyiv. Since this goal could not be achieved to this day, Moscow declared that it has connected these regions to itself with controversial referendums. In addition, threats related to the use of nuclear weapons have also come to the fore.
Starting from the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine War, the Moscow administration has stated that it would use nuclear weapons in the event of an attack on its own territory. In this context, Moscow tries to make the annexation accepted with the threat of nuclear weapons, and to prevent any foreign power from intervening in the region, based on the discourse that the referendum regions are joined to Russia.
It can be argued that Russia uses referendums as a strong argument for the threat of nuclear weapons rather than persuading the international community or giving legal ground to its annexation decisions. Indeed, the Ukrainian War is not going as planned for Russia. Thus, the progress of the Ukrainian Army in various regions has led Moscow to set a new policy. In this sense, Russia, which cannot tolerate a defeat in Ukraine, says that it can resort to nuclear weapons when necessary to protect the regions it claims to be Russia’s property, and aims to deter Kyiv and its Western allies from attacking.
To conclude, it is known that from the beginning of the Ukrainian War, part of the Russian people has opposed the war. Both the sanctions and the partial mobilization declaration have further increased opposition to war in Russian society. In addition, the fact that the Russian Armed Forces, which was considered as one of the most powerful armies in the world until 2022 has failed in Ukraine, gives Russian people another “Afghanistan Syndrome.” As one may recall, the Soviet Union had not achieved any success despite nearly a decade of occupation in Afghanistan. This was instrumental in the Dissolution of the Soviet Union. Likewise, in the Ukrainian War, the Russian Army cannot achieve any concrete success. For this reason, the Moscow administration tries to become permanent in the regions it controls by organizing referendums and to convince its people in this regard. In this respect, it can be argued that Putin focuses on preventing the occurrence of a second “Afghanistan Syndrome” and reducing the pressure of the internal public opinion. Statements on the use of nuclear weapons are then made to show Moscow’s determination.
