The war initiated by Russia against Ukraine in 2022 not only altered the geopolitical balance in Eastern Europe but also had repercussions extending to the Far East. Seeking to counter the economic and diplomatic impacts of Western sanctions, Moscow enhanced its cooperation with China and North Korea in the Asia-Pacific region, thereby increasing its strategic significance in the area. Joint military exercises with China and a deepening strategic partnership with North Korea have been interpreted as a challenge to U.S.-led alliances. Simultaneously, Russia’s pivot toward Asian markets reflects its efforts to bolster economic independence and create alternatives to Western sanctions. The repercussions of the war in Eastern Europe have led to significant shifts in the balance of power in the Far East, both economically and in terms of security, with long-term implications for the global strategic system.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol strengthened the U.S.-led alliance structure through sanctions against North Korea, efforts to resolve historical disputes with Japan, and a firm stance against China. However, the sudden imposition of martial law and the lack of public support during this process led to Yoon’s removal from office, weakening his foreign policy legacy. In the event of a Democratic Party government, foreign policy is expected to focus on dialogue with North Korea, more balanced relations with China, and a tougher approach toward Japan.[1] This scenario complicates Washington’s alliance strategies in Northeast Asia, creating significant uncertainties in regional security and trade dynamics. Progress in relations with Japan lacked public support, and Yoon’s harsh rhetoric toward China drew criticism from the international community. These criticisms not only reflected backlash against China’s economic and diplomatic power but also raised questions about the sustainability of U.S.-led alliances in the region. The transactional approach of the Trump administration and the uncertainties surrounding regional alliances contributed to perceptions of Yoon’s policies as a bold yet destabilizing legacy.
The joint military activities of China and Russia around South Korea are viewed as clear evidence of escalating power struggles in the Asia-Pacific region. On November 30, 2024, the ninth joint strategic air patrol over the Sea of Japan showcased the coordinated military capabilities of the two countries in a noteworthy operation.[2] The inclusion of H-6N strategic bombers in the operation aimed to enhance the two nations’ military technologies and power projection capabilities. These activities served as a clear deterrent message against U.S. plans to deploy intermediate-range missiles in Japan. However, countries such as Taiwan and South Korea have regarded these operations as provocative and threatening. South Korea’s firm response, including scrambling jets in reaction to air defense identification zone violations, further intensified the already complex security dynamics in the region.
Operations conducted by China and Russia are not limited to testing their military capabilities but are also regarded as a strategic challenge to U.S.-led alliances. This situation has the potential to reshape regional power balances while profoundly affecting global strategic equations. Joint activities by China and Russia push U.S. allies in the region to seek closer cooperation while deepening instability in the Asia-Pacific region.
Russia’s deepening strategic partnership with North Korea holds the potential for long-term impacts on the balance of power in Northeast Asia. Pyongyang’s active support for Moscow in the Ukraine war, by sending over 11,000 troops and expanding this assistance with military capacities such as artillery ammunition and missiles, underscores the extent of strategic dependence between the two countries.[3] This partnership partially mitigates North Korea’s international isolation while contributing to Russia’s efforts to overcome Western sanctions. Pyongyang’s positioning of its nuclear program as a non-negotiable matter significantly narrows policy options for the U.S. and its allies on this issue. Such collaboration not only complicates the U.S. strategy of containing China and North Korea but also risks triggering an arms race in the region. In response to these dynamics, the U.S. has strengthened its security cooperation with South Korea and Japan, which is critical for the continuity of regional alliances. However, joint military maneuvers by Russia and North Korea test this cooperation and further complicate the U.S.’s strategic position in the region.
Meanwhile, in the East, one of the region’s leading states, India, continues its commitment to preserving and expanding strategic ties with Russia despite Western pressure. At the 2024 India-Russia Intergovernmental Military Cooperation Commission meeting held in Moscow, India sent strong signals of its intent to maintain its strategic partnership with Russia.[4] Following the Ukraine war, India increased its oil imports from Russia by 40%, highlighting the economic dimension of this strategic dependence. However, rising transportation costs and diminishing discounts on energy imports have pushed India to seek alternative sources, such as the U.S. The decline in India’s defense imports from Russia is a result of policies emphasizing domestic production. U.S. sanctions threats have heightened sovereignty concerns in India and bolstered demands for foreign policy independence. In this context, Washington must adopt a more pragmatic approach that considers India’s historical ties with Russia. Additionally, India’s role as a mediator in the Ukraine crisis is seen as a critical move to maintain strategic balance in the region.
More than 70% of Russia’s industrial exports are directed toward Asia, which is viewed as part of its strategy to counterbalance Western sanctions and integrate into Asian markets.[5] Increased trade with major economies such as China, India, and South Korea contributes to sustaining Russia’s economic activity; however, this dependence renders Moscow economically vulnerable. At the same time, Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru’s proposal for a NATO-like collective security alliance is perceived as a challenge to Russia’s strategic interests in the Asia-Pacific. Nonetheless, Russia’s potential to deepen military and economic ties with China in response to this initiative should not be overlooked.
In this context, while Russia’s strategy, spanning from Eastern Europe to the Asia-Pacific region, focuses on security and economic cooperation, the dynamics within the Asia-Pacific have become increasingly complex amid strategic competition between Russia, China, the United States, and regional actors. The strategies pursued by each country hold the potential to reshape regional balances, yet the long-term effects remain an ongoing and uncertain process.
Following the Russia-Ukraine War, Moscow has sought to enhance its influence in the Asia-Pacific as a strategic response to Western sanctions. In this regard, Russia’s deepening military cooperation with China and North Korea has been interpreted as part of a balancing strategy against U.S.-led alliances. North Korea’s military support for Russia during the Ukraine War demonstrates how the ties between the two countries have evolved into mutual strategic dependence. However, this cooperation risks exacerbating the ongoing arms race in the Asia-Pacific, further destabilizing regional security. Simultaneously, Russia’s pivot in energy trade and its established and potential economic ties with major economies such as China, India, and South Korea have increased its integration into Asian markets while deepening mutual interdependence with these countries. Yet this process places Moscow in a more vulnerable position, especially against major actors like China.
South Korea’s search for a balancing policy in response to these dynamics could reshape regional geopolitical equations. The Trump administration’s distance from multilateral security mechanisms like NATO and the possibility of the U.S. adopting a more transactional strategy in the region may encourage South Korea to develop balanced relations with China and Russia. Seoul could consider restarting relations with Moscow; however, such a step might depend on conditions like the loosening of military ties between North Korea and Russia. South Korea’s concerns over energy security and regional isolation make such an initiative more likely. This scenario indicates that while Moscow seeks strategic opportunities in the Asia-Pacific, its actions also complicate U.S.-led efforts to strengthen alliances in the region. Ultimately, Russia’s multifaceted strategic moves in the Asia-Pacific hold the potential to create lasting impacts on global geopolitical balances.
[1] Choe Sang-Hun, “Impeachment in South Korea Has Cost Washington a Staunch Ally”, New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/16/world/asia/south-korea-us-diplomacy.html, (Access Date: 21.12.2024).
[2] “China And Russia Intensify Military Maneuvers Near South Korea”, The Pinnacle Gazette, https://evrimagaci.org/tpg/china-and-russia-intensify-military-maneuvers-near-south-korea-73445, (Access Date: 21.12.2024).
[3] Edward Howell, “Any new Trump–Kim summit risks another no deal. The US must nurture old alliances to contain North Korea”, Chatham House, https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/11/any-new-trump-kim-summit-risks-another-no-deal-us-must-nurture-old-alliances-contain-north, (Access Date: 21.12.2024).
[4] Rushali Saha, “US Needs to Accept the Reality of India-Russia Relations”, The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2024/12/us-needs-to-accept-the-reality-of-india-russia-relations, (Access Date: 21.12.2024).
[5] “Boleye 70% Rossiyskogo Nesyryevogo Eksporta v Aziyu Sostavlyayut Promyshlennyye Tovary”, Kommersant, https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/7384518?erid=F7NfYUJCUneP51LXRazh, (Access Date: 21.12.2024).
