In France, the legislative elections held this year took place from June 30 to July 7, 2024. In these elections, 577 members of the 17th National Assembly of the Fifth French Republic were elected. The decision to hold early elections was made following President Emmanuel Macron’s dissolution of the National Assembly, significant gains by the National Rally (RN), and Macron’s substantial loss of seats in the 2024 European Parliament elections.[i]
First Round Results and Voter Turnout
On June 9, 2024, French President Emmanuel Macron announced the dissolution of the National Assembly. With this move, Macron aimed to create a new republican barrier against the divisions of the left and the rise of the far-right that emerged during the European elections. However, Macron’s strategy did not yield the expected results. The unification of the left and the rise of the National Rally (RN) led to Macron’s Ensemble coalition finishing third with 20.04% of the vote in the first round on June 30. The New People’s Front (NFP) received 27.99%, and the RN and its allies garnered 33.15% of the vote.[ii]
Political Implications of the Dissolution Decision
Macron hoped to apply the strategy he had successfully used three times in the past. This strategy was aimed at creating a barrier against the far-right in the second rounds of the 2017 and 2022 presidential elections against Marine Le Pen, as well as securing a majority in the second round of the 2022 general elections. However, the effectiveness of this strategy had significantly diminished two years ago; at that time, the RN had achieved a record number of 89 deputies. Nevertheless, Macron and his advisory group believed that this strategy would be successful once again.
In a statement to Le Monde on June 10, Macron confidently described his strategy as “a hand grenade with the pin pulled thrown at his opponents’ feet.” However, the inevitability of defeat soon began to spread among the candidates and leaders of Macron’s Ensemble coalition. On June 20, former Prime Minister and leader of the Horizons Party, Édouard Philippe, commented, “The President has killed the majority,” while Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin expressed his certainty about Macron’s downfall.[iii]
Believing he could turn his situation around, Macron engaged in various media interventions, including major press conferences, field visits, letters to the French people, and a lengthy podcast interview. However, it was observed that his candidates preferred not to feature him in their campaign brochures.
The contrast between the sweeping victory in the first round of the 2017 elections and the 2024 campaign is striking. This situation reflects the decline of Macron and Macronism after seven years in power, particularly following the imposition of the pension reform at the beginning of his second term and the increasingly controversial immigration law, which resonated even within his own ranks.
In the first round of elections held on June 30, the presidential coalition earned the right to participate in the second round in 290 to 330 constituencies. Pollsters predicted that by the end of the second round on July 7, the coalition would secure only 70 to 100 seats in the National Assembly.
Macron’s main goal was to prevent the RN from achieving an absolute majority. Failing to do so and facing a decisive defeat, Macron found himself having to intervene in the race between the RN and the NFP. According to the polls, a record number of three-way races were expected in 285 to 315 constituencies, and the attitude of the Ensemble candidates and voters would determine the election outcome.
Macron declared that it was “time for a clear, democratic, and republican broad alliance against the National Rally for the second round.” Prime Minister Gabriel Attal condemned the RN’s “sinister project,” stating, “The lesson of this evening is that the far-right is on the brink of power” and emphasized the need to “prevent the RN from achieving an absolute majority in the second round.” Attal urged candidates finishing third to support other candidates against the RN.
These statements marked a departure from the presidential coalition’s previous approach of equating all extremisms and explicitly targeted the RN. However, they created uncertainty regarding candidates from La France Insoumise (LFI). On June 30, Ensemble candidate Albane Branlant, who finished third in the first constituency of Somme, withdrew in favor of NFP candidate François Ruffin, who was in second place, to prevent an RN victory. Following this political and electoral defeat, Macron’s biggest challenge is to avoid handing the keys of power to the far-right.[iv]
2017-2022 Legislative Elections and Background
The 2022 French legislative elections were held on June 12 and 19. These elections took place after the 2022 presidential election and marked a significant turning point in French history, resulting in the incumbent president’s party losing its absolute majority. The Ensemble coalition, led by Emmanuel Macron, won 245 seats, making it the party with the most seats but falling short of an absolute majority. This led to the formation of France’s first minority government since 1993.
In the first round of the elections, both Ensemble and the left-wing New Ecological and Social People’s Union (NUPES) received around 26% of the vote. The far-right National Rally (RN) garnered 19%, while the center-right Union of Democrats and Independents (UDI) received 11%. These elections resulted in a “hung parliament,” where no alliance achieved an absolute majority, for the first time since 1988.[v]
In the second round, although Macron’s party won the most seats, coalition negotiations and political uncertainties came to the forefront. Macron’s government saw its majority shrink from 115 seats to 38, marking the largest minority situation for a French government since 1958.
The 2017 French legislative elections resulted in Macron’s party, La République En Marche! (LREM), and its allies gaining a substantial majority in the National Assembly. LREM won 308 seats, becoming the largest group in the assembly, while the Democratic Movement and allied Democrats group secured 42 seats, and Agir Ensemble won 9 seats. These results indicated a strong majority for Macron right after his first presidential term. Despite this, Macron’s proposed changes to the French parliamentary system, promised during the 2017 elections, were not implemented.
In the 2017 election, Macron defeated far-right leader Marine Le Pen with 66% of the vote to her 34%, becoming President. In the 2022 presidential election, Macron did not achieve an absolute majority in the first round, leading to a second round where he once again defeated Le Pen, this time with 58% to 41%. In the first round, Macron received 27.9% of the vote, while the Republican candidate Valérie Pécresse garnered less than 5%, marking one of the lowest results in the party’s history. The Socialist Party candidate, Anne Hidalgo, obtained 1.75% of the vote, resulting in the worst outcome in the party’s history.[vi]
Connections Between the 2017 and 2022 Elections
In the 2017 elections, Macron’s party secured a strong majority in the assembly. However, the loss of this majority in the 2022 elections highlighted emerging political uncertainties. Following the 2017 elections, Macron made changes leaving his government and appointed Élisabeth Borne as prime minister. The political impacts of these changes became evident in the 2022 elections. The formation of new political balances, due to the unification of the NUPES coalition and other left-wing blocs, led to more pluralism and a minority government in the parliament, contrasting with Macron’s first term.
The 2017 elections represented Macron’s innovative and pluralistic approach, while the 2022 elections showcased how this approach was tested and the changes in the political landscape. The 2022 results reflected the challenges faced by Macron’s government and party after a strong start in 2017 and the evolving political dynamics. This process is considered a significant turning point in France’s political history.[vii]
Reactions to the 2024 Elections
RN leader Jordan Bardella interpreted the significant difference between the RN and L’Europe Ensemble lists in the European Parliament elections as a “strong rejection” of Macron and stated that the results marked “the first day of the post-Macron era.” The President of the RN group in the National Assembly, Marine Le Pen, and La France Insoumise leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon both celebrated the election results and welcomed the announcement of early elections with satisfaction.[viii]
Former President Nicolas Sarkozy criticized Macron, describing the decision to dissolve the National Assembly as a “serious risk for the country.” Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo responded extremely negatively to Macron’s decision, stating that the elections would not only “dismay the entire nation” but also increase the risk of uprisings and protests in the streets. Hidalgo also highlighted that the situation posed a serious threat to the 2024 Summer Olympics.[ix]
The decision to hold early elections came as a surprise to external observers and was considered risky for Emmanuel Macron’s presidential majority. Some commentators suggested that Macron aimed to force a decision between the RN and the opposition, while others assessed that Macron intended to regain the majority. Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné, as soon as the dissolution was announced, tried to persuade moderate current MPs from both the left and the right to join his coalition.[x]
Most international media approached Macron’s decision with deep surprise, labeling the early elections as a “desperate risk.” Overall, Macron’s decision was negatively assessed, and expectations for his coalition’s success in the elections were low. La Libre Belgique described Macron as a “wounded political animal.” According to the BBC, Macron’s call for early elections endangered the democracy of the Fifth Republic and brought risks of violence in the streets and institutional collapse. The Guardian suggested that Macron took these measures to avenge his previous defeat in the European Parliament elections, which could lead to the rise of radicals and the country’s division. Die Zeit claimed that Macron had “lost his cool” and, as a result, had “handed the country over to Marine Le Pen.” The Greek newspaper Kathimerini deemed Macron’s decision as “reckless” and indicated it would not lead to a favorable outcome. French media also raised concerns about organizing the 2024 Summer Olympics amidst political instability.[xi]
Public Reaction to the Election Process
Protests began immediately after the results of the European elections on June 9, 2024. Several hundred people gathered at Place de la République in Paris, demonstrating against the RN’s victory and calling for a “left-wing alliance.” In Lille, a few dozen individuals chanted anti-Jordan Bardella slogans. Many labor unions, student groups, human rights organizations, and political parties called for rallies to oppose the National Rally’s anti-immigrant and anti-European policies and to offer “progressive alternatives for the business world.” Political parties supporting the call for rallies included the Socialist Party, the Communist Party, the Greens, and La France Insoumise, while union groups involved were the French Democratic Confederation of Labour (CFDT), the General Confederation of Labour (CGT), the National Union of Autonomous Trade Unions (UNSA), the Federation of Trade Unions (FSU), and Solidaires. These groups encouraged “the largest possible” demonstrations.[xii]
On June 18, 2024, the General Confederation of Labour (CGT) issued a call to support voting for the left-center New Popular Union (NUPES) alliance. This marked the first time CGT specifically directed votes towards a particular candidate or party. [xiii]
In the 2024 election campaign in France, incidents of violence and protests increased. Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin reported that 51 candidates, alternates, or militants were physically attacked during the campaign. The violence, particularly between far-left and far-right groups, has been noted, although no major eruption is anticipated. Concerns are growing about increased violence and unrest in Paris and its surroundings following the election results. Security forces have taken extensive measures to prevent such incidents, and protests have been banned in some cities.
The political polarization between extremes in France and the manipulation of social media have created significant uncertainty and tension in the country. These events, both before and after the elections, highlight how internal and external factors are shaping France’s political environment.[xiv]
Russia’s Influence on Social Media
It has been revealed that Russia targeted social media during France’s election process. Campaigns conducted especially on X (formerly Twitter) indicate that Moscow aimed to push French politics towards the extremes and to break the traditional “Republican front.” According to a study by CNRS, the Kremlin’s strategy is focused on legitimizing far-right groups and weakening existing governments. The research shows that Russia used various methods, such as fake websites and targeted advertisements, to destabilize Macron’s government and support far-right forces.[xv]
As a result, these elections have the potential to bring about fundamental changes in France’s political landscape. Macron’s policies and strategies have been disrupted, particularly by the strengthening of the RN and the unification of the left. This situation highlights the challenges Macron faces in the latter part of his presidency and reflects the changing dynamics among French voters. In the coming years, new alliances and movements are anticipated on France’s political stage. Macron’s leadership will be tested by the rise of the far-right and the efforts of the left to regroup. This process should be closely monitored for its impact not only on France’s internal political balance but also on its influence in Europe and the world.
[i] “Macron calls snap French election and Belgian PM to resign after disastrous poll results”, Sky News, https://news.sky.com/story/president-emmanuel-macron-dissolves-french-national-assembly-and-calls-for-snap-election-13150407, (Date of Access: 23.07.2024).
[ii] “Résultats des législatives 2024”, France Tv Info, https://t.ly/D2EaF, (Date of Access: 23.07.2024).
[iii] “La chute d’Emmanuel Macron après le pari raté de la dissolution”, France 24, https://www.france24.com/fr/france/20240630-la-chute-d-emmanuel-macron-après-le-pari-raté-de-la-dissolution, (Date of Access: 24.07.2024).
[iv] “Why has French President Emmanuel Macron announced snap elections after EU Parliament poll defeat?”, Euronews, https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/06/10/french-president-emmanuel-macron-announces-anticipated-elections-after-stinging-eu-electio, (Date of Access: 24.07.2024).
[v] “Macron’s bloc falls short of absolute majority, leftist coalition second, large gains for far right”, France 24, https://www.france24.com/en/france/20220619-live-france-votes-in-parliamentary-election-second-round, (Date of Access: 24.07.2024).
[vi] “Carte des résultats des élections législatives 2022: les députés élus, circonscription par circonscription”, Le Monde, https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2022/06/20/carte-des-resultats-des-legislatives-les-deputes-elus-circonscription-par-circonscription_6131057_4355771.html, (Date of Access: 24.07.2024).
[vii] “An Institut Montaigne Explainer: Understanding Legislative Elections in France”, Institut Montaigne, https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/expressions/institut-montaigne-explainer-understanding-legislative-elections-france, (Date of Access: 24.07.2024).
[viii] “Macron gambles on snap election after crushing loss to French far right in EU vote”, CNN, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/09/europe/macron-dissolves-french-parliament-europe-intl/index.html, (Date of Access: 24.07.2024).
[ix] “Macron ‘spoiled the party’ by calling snap vote before the Olympics, Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo says”, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/france-emmanuel-macron-olympics-snap-election-paris-anne-hidalgo/, (Date of Access: 24.07.2024).
[x] “Législatives anticipées : ‘On commence ce matin une campagne, rien n’est joué, ce sera projet contre projet’, assure Clément Beaune”, France Tv Info, https://t.ly/tHB5T, (Date of Access: 24.07.2024).
[xi] “The Guardian view on Macron’s snap election: France on the brink”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/24/the-guardian-view-on-macrons-snap-election-france-on-the-brink, (Date of Access: 24.07.2024).
[xii] “VIDÉO. Européennes: plusieurs centaines de personnes place de la République à Paris contre le RN” , Ouest France, https://www.ouest-france.fr/elections/europeennes/video-europeennes-plusieurs-centaines-de-personnes-place-de-la-republique-a-paris-contre-le-rn-b3182cc2-575a-4dc0-99ce-047600067f7f, (Date of Access: 24.07.2024).
[xiii] “Législatives”, LCP, https://lcp.fr/actualites/legislatives-la-cgt-appelle-a-voter-pour-le-nouveau-front-populaire-que-disent-les, (Date of Access: 24.07.2024).
[xiv] “Législatives: 51 candidats ou militants “agressés” durant la campagne, rapporte Gérald Darmanin”, France 24, https://www.france24.com/fr/france/20240705-législatives-51-candidats-ou-militants-agressés-durant-la-campagne-rapporte-gérald-darmanin, (Date of Access: 24.07.2024).
[xv] “La Russie à l’assaut des réseaux sociaux durant la campagne des législatives”, Euroactiv, https://www.euractiv.fr/section/politique/news/la-russie-a-lassaut-des-reseaux-sociaux-durant-la-campagne-des-legislatives/, (Date of Access: 24.07.2024).
