Among the most recent debates in the Western world about the Russo-Ukrainian War, the question is whether Ukraine will launch an attack on Russian territory. Other important discussions include: Whether Ukraine can use weapons belonging to Western countries against Russia and send trainers to Ukraine from North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member states to provide Ukrainian Army troops with combat training against Russia.
On 28 May 2024, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron met at the French-German Defense and Security Council in Meseberg to show their common support for Ukraine, saying that Ukraine could strike military sites within Russia. [1] To remind you, Scholz has long been reluctant to let Ukraine invade Russian territory. Scholz’s main concern here was that these attacks might lead to a direct conflict with a nuclear-armed Russia.
The United States has long opposed both Ukraine attacking Russian territory and the use of American weapons in these attacks. However, the Biden administration, under increasing pressure, allowed Ukraine to use American weapons to hit targets in Russia. However, it was restricted to Kharkiv. [2]
Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to intimidate the West, saying the move could have serious consequences and could lead to a global conflict. Dmitry Medvedev, the vice-president of the Russian Security Council, said Moscow could go to war with NATO if Ukraine attacked Russia with US weapons. [3]
Despite Russia’s warnings, Western actors take their decisive support for Ukraine one step at a time. France, for example, has also announced that it will send troops to train the Ukrainian Army. [4] The move is expected to encourage other Western allies to take similar steps. So Paris is trying to pioneer the Western world in increasing support for Kiev. In fact, the rhetoric and actions of Britain and the United States have so far been prominent in the case of decisive support for Ukraine. So it’s remarkable that France wants to extend its support to Ukraine one step at a time, and to give way to Western actors. This could be seen as an example of Macron’s populist manifestations of domestic politics, as well as part of France’s quest to strengthen its leading position within Europe.
Indeed, such decisive outflows by France could trigger a domino effect in the Western world, with the United States and Britain also increasing their support for Ukraine. The United States, for example, has said that negotiations are under way for a 10-year bilateral security agreement with Ukraine. [5] Kiev, with the help of Britain over the past several months, has started negotiations with several Western actors to sign bilateral defense agreements, signed with some, and is about to sign with others. However, a US-led agreement with Ukraine on the issue will be a major psychological factor, at the point when Western actors follow similar steps.
Led by France, Britain, the United States and Germany, NATO is now close to extending support to Ukraine a step further. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg emphasizes that Ukraine is not an obstacle to attacking Russian territory, and that rules for the use of Western weapons should be eased. [6]
Washington supports limiting Ukraine’s attack against Russia. Because in a possible NATO-Russia confrontation, the primary responsibility lies with the United States. Because Europe relies on the United States for the security of the continent, and the Pentagon will have to follow the strategy of the war in Ukraine. On the other hand, each NATO country is free to decide whether its weapons will be used by Ukraine in an attack against Russian territory. However, should any NATO country’s military elements be targeted by Russian forces in Ukraine, NATO would have to unanimously decide to activate Article 5, the collective defense clause.
France argues that Ukraine should be able to use Western weapons when hitting targets in Russia. [7] London believes such a strategy is reasonable. In other words, Paris and London are in favor of extending support to Kiev a step further. Washington and Berlin are more concerned about a possible confrontation between NATO and Russia. The basic plan is to maintain Western military-financial support for Kiev until the best conditions for peace in Ukraine are established. Steps taken in this direction point to a potential escalation that could pit NATO and Russia against each other.
As a result, to list these risks, one might mention: It is highly risky that weapons belonging to NATO countries are used by Kiev in a possible attack on Russian soil. In addition, NATO countries sending military instructors to Ukraine could further make them Russia’s target. France seeks to boost its effectiveness in post-war Ukraine by leading such steps. But the real risk here is that Western actors can often act on their political motives in Ukraine, rather than on a military strategy. Macron’s recent rhetoric and actions may be a clear sign of this.
[1] “Germany and France agree Ukraine may strike Russian military targets”, Euronews, https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/05/29/germany-and-france-agree-ukraine-may-strike-russian-military-targets, (Date of Accession: 03.06.2024).
[2] “Biden allows Ukraine to hit some targets in Russia with US weapons”, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy770l9llnzo, (Date of Accession: 03.06.2024).
[3] “Kremlin official threatens war against NATO if Ukraine uses US weapons against Russia”, Yahoo News, https://tinyurl.com/53wdudvk, (Date of Accession: 03.06.2024).
[4] “Kyiv says talks on France sending military instructors to Ukraine are ongoing”, France 24, https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240527-kyiv-says-talks-on-france-sending-military-instructors-to-ukraine-are-ongoing, (Date of Accession: 03.06.2024).
[5] “US Nears Bilateral Security Pact With Ukraine in Show of Support”, Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-30/us-nears-bilateral-security-pact-with-ukraine-in-show-of-support, (Date of Accession: 03.06.2024).
[6] “NATO’s boss wants to free Ukraine to strike hard inside Russia”, Economist, https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/05/24/natos-boss-wants-to-free-ukraine-to-strike-hard-inside-russia, (Date of Accession: 03.06.2024).
[7] “Macron says Ukraine should be able to target Russia with western arms”, FT, https://www.ft.com/content/24804516-b67c-40cc-8684-ccbf06b38268, (Date of Accession: 03.06.2024).
