Donald Trump, set to assume the presidency of the United States on January 20, 2025, has asserted that he will conclude the Russia-Ukraine War within 24 hours of his inauguration and that American assistance to Ukraine will be diminished. These declarations highlighted the potential for settling the conflict through negotiations, resulting in the entrenchment of the parties’ policies aimed at consolidating their positions in the discussions; in essence, it precipitated an escalation of the war. In this environment, Russia has expedited its progress in eastern Ukraine and obtained military assistance from North Korea. Ukraine has solicited further assistance from its friends, expressing its willingness to welcome European forces within its borders, and has obstructed the transit of Russian gas to Europe via Ukrainian territory. Europeans are approaching this situation from two perspectives: actions to be taken in anticipation of potential peace and the position to adopt should the conflict persist.
The prospective peace process is inherently complex. Consequently, to engage in negotiations, Putin must secure a benefit that preserves his prestige, or the military assistance provided to Ukraine must escalate to a level that dissuades him. Nonetheless, Trump asserts that he would address the conflict between Russia and Ukraine; however, he fails to elucidate the methods and conditions necessary for achieving a ceasefire. Nonetheless, Trump’s remarks concerning a ceasefire initiative have expedited deliberations among European nations, which maintain the view that “European security is unattainable without European participation,” contemplating the deployment of a peacekeeping contingent in Ukraine. The proposition to deploy soldiers to Ukraine was put forth by French President Emmanuel Macron in February 2024; yet, it failed to get approval. Following Trump’s electoral triumph, the matter has resurfaced; discussions over the potential for France and England to spearhead a military coalition in Ukraine have commenced.[1]
On December 12, 2024, during Macron’s visit to Warsaw, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk declared that they had no preparations concerning the issue. Boris Pistorius, Germany’s Defense Minister, indicated that the deployment of a peacekeeping force would be assessed contingent upon a potential ceasefire. EU nations, who hold divergent views on the peacekeeping mission in Ukraine, are unable to operate cohesively. Conversely, even with the approval of member states, the EU lacks the capacity to send a mission including 40,000 to 100,000 troops in Ukraine. Consequently, the implementation of a peacekeeping operation capable of effectively implementing a ceasefire in Ukraine is deemed an impractical strategy for the EU. A coalition of European nations, including England, can be established. Trump has suggested delaying Ukraine’s accession to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) by 20 years and establishing a European peacekeeping force in Ukraine that incorporates British personnel.
From Putin’s viewpoint, it seems that Russia has secured a strategic superiority over Ukraine regarding military capabilities and personnel. This environment also provides Putin the ability to assert ceasefire conditions. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov expressed dissatisfaction with the Trump administration’s proposals to postpone Ukraine’s NATO membership by 20 years and to deploy British and European peacekeeping forces to Ukraine; he articulated that Trump’s objective was to halt hostilities along the contact line and shift the responsibility for the conflict with Russia to the Europeans.[2] From this viewpoint, it is evident that a ceasefire will not transpire as rapidly as asserted by Trump. Consequently, on a continent beset by ongoing conflict, Europe has no alternative but to assist Ukraine in its struggle against Russia, deemed the paramount threat to European security. The economic crisis confronting European nations, precipitated by the energy crisis stemming from the Russia-Ukraine War and compounded by the lingering consequences of the Covid-19 outbreak, may impede the provision of adequate support to Ukraine. Conversely, the expenses associated with the conflict, approaching its third year, should not be regarded only as economic concerns for Europe. Since February 24, 2022, Europe, motivated to support Ukraine, has began to encounter challenges in democracy.
Support for far-right factions in Europe, characterized by their estrangement from democratic institutions, has risen since the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The socioeconomic repercussions of the war have precipitated political and economic challenges in France and Germany, seen as the principal engines of the EU. Simultaneously, the geopolitical landscape of Europe, previously characterized by a prevailing sense of peace following World War II, commenced its transformation. During the Cold War, Sweden and Finland, which maintained their neutral status, joined NATO claiming the “Russian menace”; Germany has commenced rearmament. Nuclear armament has emerged as a prominent issue in the election campaign, exemplified by German Chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz. Likewise, the EU, recognized for its normative influence, has designated 72 billion euros for defense investments. The European Defence Agency regards this figure as a precedent in EU history.
In light of current developments and the intricate consequences of the Russia-Ukraine War for Europe, encompassing economic, security, and liberal values, resolving the war is a prudent plan from Europe’s perspective. Europe seeks to aid Ukraine in attaining a lasting ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war. In response to Trump’s request for a ceasefire, European leaders, keen to unite with the Trump-Putin alliance, assembled and declared, “Peace negotiations in Ukraine cannot go without the participation of Ukrainians and Europeans.[3] This statement signifies that the aim is to aid Ukraine in a way that forces Putin to abandon his maximalist aspirations, leading to negotiations with European stakeholders.
For Putin to be compelled to negotiate through deterrence, Trump must strengthen European nations by supplying military aid to Ukraine. Trump’s primary objective is to diminish the financial burden of European security on the US and concentrate on the Asia-Pacific region. Nonetheless, this does not imply that the U.S. will entirely disengage from European security. The historical connections, economic interactions, current circumstances, and established partnerships with Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran preclude the United States from fully disengaging from European security. In this context, Trump may facilitate the creation of a coalition like to AUKUS, referred to as the NATO of the Asia-Pacific, within Europe. Given the current circumstances, European nations recognize the imperative of enhancing Europe’s security and defense but have resorted to minilateral security coalitions due to the inability to establish a unified policy within the EU; thus, a European AUKUS that incorporates Ukraine and receives support from the USA may be established.
This coalition may convince Ukraine, which aspires to NATO membership for security reasons but has challenges in the short term, to participate in an endeavor outside of NATO membership, despite its stated reluctance to engage in such an initiative. Conversely, it may alleviate the United States’ responsibilities concerning European security. From Europe’s viewpoint, a security partnership featuring a limited US participation might mitigate apprehensions regarding European defense. By enhancing European defense through collaboration, Ukraine’s military capabilities can be augmented with the offered assistance, thereby establishing a buffer zone against the potential persistence of the Russian threat in Eastern Europe. Although Ukraine obtains the anticipated assistance from its friends against Russia, this coalition could dissuade Russia and compel it to concede on its extreme objectives. The persistent security problem between the West and Russia may expedite the peace process. In this context, it is imperative to acknowledge Russia’s apprehensions, viewing Ukraine’s NATO membership as a potential catalyst for conflict; it should be characterized as a coalition addressing security issues rather than a military assurance from the West. The involvement of nuclear powers among the direct and indirect participants in the Russia-Ukraine War amplifies the need of maintaining a balance between deterrence and credibility.
In conclusion, while it appears improbable to occur swiftly as Trump asserted, a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine War is expected in 2025. Europeans seek to remain integral to the process, whether prior to negotiations or during a potential ceasefire. European backing for Ukraine is ongoing, with the objective of establishing a robust and allied Ukraine at the negotiation table. The subsequent phase involves the formation of a peacekeeping force in Ukraine. Nevertheless, although the parties have failed to reach consensus on the negotiation parameters, the establishment of a deterrent security coalition featuring the United States may be expedited in lieu of the concept of a European peacekeeping mission. A ceasefire is imperative for Europe; yet, it is important that this ceasefire is attained in a manner that safeguards European interests. In this regard, they are formulating strategies to avert the creation of a bargaining table that would confer more advantages to Putin.
[1] Chloé Hoorman, Elise Vincent ve Philippe Ricard, “Discussions over sending European troops to Ukraine reignited”, Le Monde, https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/11/25/discussions-over-sending-french-and-british-troops-to-ukraine-reignited_6734041_4.html, (Access Date: 01.03.2025).
[2] “Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s interview with TASS news agency, December 30, 2024”, The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of The Russian Federation, https://mid.ru/en/press_service/photos/meropriyatiya_s_uchastiem_ministra/1989723/, (Access Date: 01.03.2025).
[3] “Joint Declaration by the Foreign Ministers of Germany, France, Italy, Poland, Spain, the United Kingdom as well as the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (12 December 2024)”, France Diplomacy, https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/country-files/ukraine/news/article/joint-declaration-by-the-foreign-ministers-of-germany-france-italy-poland-spain, (Access Date: 01.03.2025).
