The supply of gas to Europe through Ukraine via Soviet Union-era pipelines came to an end on the first day of 2025 when Ukraine did not renew its transit agreement. While many argue that this ends Russia’s decades-long dominance of the European energy market, these comments are understandable on one level and controversial on another.
In 2022, as a result of the sanctions imposed against Russia after the Russia-Ukraine War, Moscow reduced its gas supplies to Europe, which led to a serious crisis in Europe. Since then, as the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has stated, European countries have started to increase their gas stocks and have taken precautions against Russian gas supplies being cut off from the south as early as 2025. In addition, countries like Poland have diversified their options and moved away from being dependent on a single country for energy.
Slovakia is one of the countries most affected by this process. Gas from Ukraine was reaching the European market through Slovakia. This made Slovakia a geopolitically essential country. A significant part of the country’s income was also provided through this route. Therefore, the interruption of this gas supply was a great disappointment for Robert Fico’s country. The Prime Minister of Slovakia, Robert Fico, had made threatening comments about the possibility of taking countermeasures against Kiev’s refusal to renew the agreement with which they had been supplying electricity. On the other hand, Poland stated that it was ready to supply electricity to Ukraine in case of any loss of electricity. As can be seen, the political dimension of the process crystallizes the cracks within the European Union (EU). Therefore, Fico, who stated that the current situation would have a negative impact not only on Slovakia but also on all EU countries, realized that the agreement would not be renewed at the end of the day and stated that his country would continue to supply electricity to Ukraine.[1]
In contrast, Hungary continues to use Russian gas from the Black Sea via TurkStream. Other countries are also trying to diversify alternatives before their stocks run out.
But the biggest crisis in this process was felt in Moldova. Gas supplies to Moldova were halted because of its huge debts. The separatist region of Transnistria, where Russia has more than 1,000 troops, was supplied free of charge, but this also ended on January 1. Moldova, for its part, offered to supply the region’s rulers with gas from the European market, but this was rejected on the grounds that switching to non-Russian gas would mean switching from Gazprom’s stable supply to a more expensive gas purchase on speculative terms. Many homes in the region are now without hot water and heating, leading to a crisis, especially in Transnistria. One of the main motivations for Russia’s position is to use this development as leverage for pro-Kremlin parties in Moldova’s parliamentary elections next year.[2]
Russia has been criticized for using its energy power as a political tool. However, it is inevitable that a country that has been subjected to endless sanctions for a war whose causes are disputed and in which multiple parties serve as stimulants will take such countermeasures. Considering that it has lost influence in the field of energy, one of its most important strengths, such provocative steps will only increase.[3]
At this point, it is essential for the EU to focus on the Caucasus. Sources need to be diversified, and apart from Russia, the biggest candidates are the United States of America (USA) and energy sources in Central Asia. Recently, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky called for the US to provide more energy supplies to Europe. This could be cheaper for Europe, but it could also act as a disincentive for the continent and the bloc countries, which are concerned about their dependence on the United States. Therefore, for a Europe that wants to move away from the US umbrella, it may not be a very rational choice to move away from one source, Russia, and back to another, the US. By comparison, it is a more rational choice than Russia, but for a continent already dependent on the US to extend this to the energy sector at a higher level undermines Europe’s goals in terms of self-sufficiency. Given that, at the end of the day, the battle is now in Europe, it would not be surprising if they give the US this opportunity at the expense of postponing Russia.
Azerbaijan is another prominent and promising country. Slovakia has recently started buying gas from Azerbaijan. But in general, Baku offers a great opportunity for continental Europe to diversify its energy ties. On the other side of the Caspian Sea, Baku’s importance is crucial for the transportation of Central Asian energy resources to Europe through initiatives such as the Lapis Lazuli Corridor. When Azerbaijan’s stocks are included, Azerbaijan is seen as one of the biggest alternatives for Europe. However, the steps taken by the EU leadership regarding Azerbaijan have been small-scale and have not prevented them from passing resolutions against the country over the Karabakh issue.
Finally, although these developments threaten Europe with an energy crisis, it can be said that most countries are prepared for this outcome. However, there has been a significant increase in the excitement quotient of both people and politicians in light of the developments. As a result of the failure to take more decisive steps to diversify sources and expand stocks, Europe, and Transnistria in particular, will soon face difficult times. At the end of the day, war is on the doorstep and instead of diversifying resources, decisions and policies such as focusing on the closest resource, as mentioned above, can also be carried out. It is a fact that Europe is preparing for the end of this 5-year transit agreement, both propagandistically and to a certain extent as a stockpile, even if the initial effects are not as great as the crisis in 2022. However, it is noteworthy that continental politicians have recognized the growing importance of the Caucasus and Azerbaijan in particular, as well as Turkey as a transit country.
[1] Starcevic, Seb (2025), “Cutting off Russian gas to EU will have ‘drastic’ impact, Slovak PM warns”, POLITICO, https://www.politico.eu/article/robert-fico-vladimir-putin-cutting-off-russia-gas-to-the-eu/, (Erişim Tarihi: 06.01.2025).
[2] Gavin, Garbiel (2025), “Pro-Russian Moldovan separatists refuse EU gas despite humanitarian crisis warnings”, POLITICO, https://www.politico.eu/article/moldovan-separatists-refuse-eu-gas-despite-warnings-humanitarian-crisis-transnistria/?utm_source=LinkedIn&utm_medium=social, (Erişim Tarihi: 07.01.2025).
[3] Soldatkin, Vladimir & Peleschuk, Dan (2025), “Russian gas era in Europe ends as Ukraine stops transit”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-halts-gas-exports-europe-via-ukraine-2025-01-01/, (Erişim Tarihi: 07.01.2025)
