In Germany, the traffic light coalition government led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), named after the colors of the parties, came to an end in November 2024 after Scholz asked for the dismissal of Christian Lindner of the Free Democratic Party (FDP), who served as Finance Minister. In asking the President of the Republic to implement this decision, Scholz said that he and Lindner did not have enough common ideas on economic policies. Subsequently, Scholz’s government, which lost its majority in the parliament, officially ended in December after it failed to win a vote of confidence in the parliament.
As Germany prepares to go to early general elections on February 23, 2025, it is thought that the election results will have an impact on many of the EU’s policies as it is the biggest determining power of the European Union (EU). The most important of these issues is the EU enlargement process, which is being carried out in the shadow of the Russia-Ukraine War and developments in the Middle East.
Given the re-election of Donald Trump as the President of the United States of America (USA) and the rising new-right and populist movements in Europe, the enlargement policy is viewed negatively by EU skeptics, but still seen as a hope for many countries that want to get rid of Russian influence and come under the umbrella of the EU. Despite all these developments, it has been stated that enlargement will remain a priority for the EU Commission under the second Von der Leyen presidency after the European Parliament elections in 2024. While it is true that the enlargement process is led by the European Commission, the role of the European Council is just as important, as it requires all member states to be in agreement and willing to enlarge. Therefore, it remains to be seen whether the results of the upcoming German parliamentary elections will give momentum to enlargement policies. In the run-up to the elections, the parties have announced their stance on this issue in their election programs.
In its party program, Chancellor Scholz’s party, the SPD, emphasized the transformative power and geopolitical necessity of enlargement. It is a process for peace, democracy, the rule of law and the spread of wealth across the continent. To this end, it was stated that the EU had already achieved successes in enlargement and that this should continue. The program also stated that EU enlargement has the potential to narrow the playing field of other actors in the candidate countries. It was envisaged that if the Western Balkan countries make the most of this process, people will realize that it is a valuable process. Ukraine and Moldova should be part of the EU, and it was stated that these countries share common values and a common future. It is reminded that democratic forces in Georgia are supported and it is suggested that Georgia, like any other country, should fulfill the Kophenhag criteria. Turkey, a candidate country, was not included in the program.[1]
The Greens, another partner in the traffic light coalition, share similar views with the SPD. The Greens say that enlargement has been a success story and that it is in the Union’s interest. The program includes support for the Western Balkan countries, Ukraine and Moldova to become part of the EU as soon as the criteria are met. It was also emphasized that democracy in Georgia and support for pro-democracy and pro-EU forces are important for Georgia’s future in the EU.[2]
The FDP, the partner of the coalition that left the government, drew attention to the necessity of institutional reforms for EU enlargement. Once these preparations were made, it was stated that it would be in German and European interests for the Western Balkans, Ukraine and Moldova to become member states once the criteria were met.[3]
The Christian Democratic and Christian Social Union Parties (CDU and CSU), the main opposition party and the parties expected to produce a Chancellor according to the polls, want to put enlargement policies on a sound and realistic footing. The CDU also calls for a new neighborhood policy. The EU membership of the Western Balkan countries, Ukraine and Moldova is seen by the CDU as a security and geopolitical issue. It is argued that these countries should be motivated for reforms during the accession process.[4]
The AfD, a far-right and populist party with a rapid upward momentum in the polls, believes that Germany should leave the EU and opposes any EU and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) enlargement. Sarah Wagenknecht and her party, the Union of Sarah Wagenknecht (BSW), who left the Left Party and founded a new party named after her, believe that the enlargement of the EU should end as soon as possible. This also applies to Ukraine. BSW was forced to leave her party due to her skepticism of the EU and NATO, criticism of current immigration policies and opposition to military aid to Ukraine.
Enlargement policies have been a trump card that the EU has played from time to time, especially in the wake of geopolitical developments. Although the EU has had many enlargements in its history, it has not experienced any enlargement since Croatia became a member in 2013. While the EU wants to add dynamism to this process with its enlargement policy, it will also have to deal with rising far-right movements. It is an undeniable fact that the will that will emerge as a result of the elections in Germany will change this balance to one side.
[1]“Mehr Für Dich. Besser Für Deutschland”, SPD, https://www.spd.de/bundestagswahl, (Erişim Tarihi: 13.01.2025).
[2] “Zusammen Wachsen”, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, https://www.gruene.de/artikel/zusammen-wachsen, (Erişim Tarihi: 13.01.2025).
[3] “Alles lässt sich andern”, FDP, https://www.fdp.de/das-wahlprogramm-der-freien-demokraten-zur-bundestagswahl-2025, (Erişim Tarihi: 13.01.2025).
[4] “Politikwechsel für Deutschland”, CDU und CSU, https://www.politikwechsel.cdu.de/, (Erişim Tarihi: 13.01.2025).
