Armenia’s efforts toward integration with the European Union (EU) have created significant impacts on both its domestic and foreign policies. In terms of domestic policy, democracy and reforms come into focus. The process of rapprochement with the EU contributes to encouraging democratic reforms in Armenia. Within the framework of the European Neighbourhood Policy, the EU’s institutional relations with Armenia have historically been examined in the context of promoting democracy, analyzing to what extent the EU has employed mechanisms of conditionality and socialization.
The first significant step was taken in 1991 with the signing of the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement. This agreement encompassed economic cooperation, human rights, justice, and security issues. Integration with the EU has led to a transformation in Armenia’s economic structure. Under the European Neighbourhood Policy and the Eastern Partnership Program, the EU’s increasing attention to Armenia encourages the country to pursue economic reforms.
From a foreign policy perspective, Armenia’s integration process with the EU has led to tensions in its relations with Russia. This move by Armenia has particularly disturbed Russia in the region. Entering into a process of integration with the EU increases Western pressure on Armenia to clarify its alignment. Armenia’s decision to officially initiate its EU accession process can be seen as a reflection of global and regional developments, including the Russia-Ukraine war and events in Syria. This decision is undoubtedly expected to significantly impact the balance of power in the South Caucasus. While Armenia’s efforts toward EU integration promote democratic reforms and economic transformation in domestic policy, they have also led to tensions in foreign policy with Russia and shifts in regional power dynamics.
Armenia’s EU accession process has caused significant changes in its foreign policy, particularly leading to notable tensions with Russia. This indicates Armenia’s desire to distance itself from its traditional ally Russia and to establish closer relations with the West. Although Armenia gained independence following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, it maintained strong military, economic, and political ties with Russia. In this context, Armenia became a full member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) in 2015 and remains part of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Furthermore, Russia’s 102nd Military Base in Gyumri has been a vital component of Armenia’s security architecture.
However, Armenia’s joint military exercises with the United States and its alignment with the West during the Russia-Ukraine War have brought its relations with Russia to a breaking point. In 2024, following tensions with Russia, Armenia decided to gradually take control of its borders with Iran and Turkey. This step reflects Armenia’s desire to strengthen its sovereignty and adopt a more independent approach to its security policies. The signing of a strategic partnership agreement with the United States deeply impacted Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus. This agreement includes provisions for increasing Armenia’s defense capacity and receiving training on defense systems compatible with Euro-Atlantic institutions.
Armenia’s EU accession process has the potential to reshape geopolitical balances in the South Caucasus. This process is particularly shaped by the policies of neighboring actors such as Turkey, Azerbaijan, Iran, and Georgia. Relations between Turkey and Armenia have been tense for a long time due to historical and political reasons. However, recent years have seen attempts at normalization between the two countries. Armenia’s EU accession process is closely monitored by Turkey. This process could contribute to the normalization of bilateral relations and increase opportunities for regional cooperation. In 2024, Armenia and Turkey took steps toward opening their border crossings and normalizing diplomatic relations. On July 30, 2024, representatives of both countries held a symbolic meeting at a border checkpoint that had been closed for 30 years.
Turkey’s experience with the EU accession process and its strategic position in the region could play a significant role in Armenia’s integration efforts with the EU. Azerbaijan is also closely watching Armenia’s EU accession process. The Karabakh conflict between the two countries directly affects regional stability. Azerbaijan hopes that Armenia’s rapprochement with the EU will positively contribute to the peace process. However, Armenia’s military aid and arms purchases from the West are viewed with concern by Azerbaijan. This situation may hinder the signing of a peace agreement and increase tensions in the region.
The EU has been making diplomatic efforts to support the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Following the Second Karabakh War in 2020, the European Commission established direct contacts with both Armenia and Azerbaijan to facilitate peace negotiations. Since 2021, European Council President Charles Michel has held multiple meetings with Baku and Yerevan. In 2022, the EU launched a Border Assistance Mission (EUBAM) to reduce tensions in the border areas. However, this mission drew criticism from Azerbaijan, which accused the EU of taking a biased position in favor of Armenia.
The EU provides funds to Armenia for economic reforms and infrastructure projects. In 2021, the EU announced a €2.6 billion aid package for Armenia. Since Azerbaijan is a major exporter of natural gas to the EU, the Union must balance its relations with Baku. The Azerbaijani government emphasizes that the EU should maintain a neutral stance and criticizes any strategic support directed at Armenia. Iran, as Armenia’s southern neighbor, closely monitors developments in the region. Armenia’s EU accession process may impact Iran’s strategic interests in the region. Iran is concerned that Armenia’s rapprochement with the West could reduce its sphere of influence. Additionally, Armenia’s desire for EU membership may lead Iran to reassess its regional policies.
In conclusion, Armenia’s EU accession process may lead to significant changes in the country’s economic and social structure. EU membership could support Armenia in terms of economic development, increased investment, and democratization. However, the reforms and alignment processes required by this path may create short-term challenges. The Armenian people’s adaptation to these changes and their support for the process are crucial for its success. Armenia’s EU accession process deeply affects regional dynamics. The attitudes of Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Iran will be key factors in shaping the course of this process.
Supporting regional cooperation and peace efforts would benefit all parties. The normalization process between Turkey and Armenia could ease Armenia’s access to the sea and trade routes. This, in turn, could strengthen regional economic integration and increase stability. However, solving existing problems and building trust between countries are critical for the success of this process. Armenia’s EU accession process may also have global effects. This move could be seen as part of the West’s efforts to increase its influence in the South Caucasus. Additionally, Armenia’s EU membership aspirations may prompt other regional countries to reconsider their foreign policy choices. This could lead to the emergence of new dynamics in international relations. The accession process has the potential to create profound effects on both regional and global levels. Therefore, it must be approached as a multidimensional issue in the context of Armenia’s foreign policy strategies, regional actors’ responses, and international relations.
