The year 2024 has gone down in history as a critical period in which transformational effects are experienced in the field of energy, changes are increasing and energy geopolitics is being reshaped. Investments in renewable energy have intensified, the reuse of nuclear energy has increased and interest in artificial intelligence has increased. While global geopolitical tensions shape energy dynamics, they have also become the pioneer and trigger of energy technologies.
In this period when the role of renewable energy continues to be discussed, it is determined that one of the biggest countries that stands out is China. It is seen that the largest share in clean energy investments, with 680 billion dollars, comes from China, followed by the European Union (EU) and the United States of America (USA). It is seen that these three components constitute 60% of the total global capacity in the global clean energy transformation.[1]
It can be said that all kinds of R&D development and technological studies to be carried out in energy play a more key role in energy security than geopolitics. Especially in the field of raw materials, China’s economic paradigms on the super commodity cycle determine the strengthening of the global demand side, supply and, more importantly, forecasts. However, while the world’s globalization efforts are being dragged into failure with increasing migration crises, the withdrawal of academic studies to national borders may prevent the spread of technological development to the global level.
On the other hand, the increasing use of energy storage signals that countries have started new energy economy models and will be the leading actor of the development economy in the coming years. The development and introduction of advanced energy storage systems such as lithium-ion batteries and network-scale energy storage solutions will increase the resilience of energy systems. It will help create a more stable economic environment by reducing the risk of energy supply disruptions by balancing the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources.
Another area, the opening of hydrogen, contributes to supply security with new alternatives. Focusing on green hydrogen production will open up new industrial sectors, especially in regions such as Europe, Japan and the Middle East. This will provide new supply chains, job creation and economic diversification. The potential of hydrogen as a clean energy carrier for industries such as steel, cement and heavy transport will reduce carbon footprints and support the growth of global industrial economies.
Major companies in the oil and gas sector have taken significant steps to increase clean energy investments in order to adapt to the energy transition. In 2024, these investments reached $30 billion, approximately 50% of which was directed to mergers and acquisitions. This shows that transformation efforts in the sector are not limited to financial support, but also include strategic partnerships and reorganization of company assets. Despite this increase in absolute values, clean energy investments account for only 4% of total capital expenditures. This rate reveals that the sector has not yet reached the desired level of prioritizing the energy transition.
With real figures, it is seen that the world is still far from the 2050 targets. It is not even remote that the global demand for natural gas will increase, especially with the transformation of natural gas infrastructures, where oil and gas will continue to lead. However, the peak consumption of fossil fuels expected in 2030 will increase the dependence of countries on these resources in the future and will solidify the demand for fossil fuels. Here, the dominance of liquefied natural gas (LNG), one of the most important components of natural gas, in the energy sector is seen to be ahead of most fuels as of 2024.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) analyzes this situation and states that the risk of overinvestment casts a shadow over the sector. The world must act quickly to achieve net zero emissions targets by 2050 and combat climate change. The energy transition is of critical importance not only for the purpose of achieving climate targets, but also for maintaining economic efficiency in the sector and preventing financial losses. The energy transition is of critical importance not only for the purpose of achieving climate targets, but also for maintaining economic efficiency in the sector and preventing financial losses. Apart from this, it also shows that countries are leaving welfare economies behind and moving to security economies within the framework of geopolitical tensions experienced in 2024. For example, the fact that the “energy supply security” file is now being processed among the articles of the Munich Security Conference is cited as evidence.[2]
On the other hand, it is seen that countries are returning to the capacity increase of nuclear energy as a real policy. In 2024, 31 countries committed to triple the global nuclear energy capacity by 2050. The USA plans to increase its capacity by 200 GW by 2050 in line with the goal of at least tripling its current nuclear capacity.[3]It is expected that large nuclear energy projects will start in developing countries in the coming days. Moreover, the installation of new generation reactors in these countries may be a sign that modern nuclear energy will rise from developing countries. In particular, Turkey’s statements on the installation of SMR (Small Modular Reactor) are evidence for the given assessment.[4]
The year 2024 stands out as a period in which major challenges continue on a global scale in terms of energy security. While the increasing conflicts in the Middle East and the Russo-Ukrainian War are among the main factors threatening energy supply, this situation has made energy security risks even more apparent worldwide. Although the immediate effects of the global energy crisis have partially diminished in 2023, the risk of interruptions in energy supply is still high and increasing.
Experience in recent years has shown that energy supply dependencies can quickly become fragile. This lesson applies not only to traditional fossil fuels, but also to clean energy technologies. As of 2020, more than 200 trade measures (mostly restrictive) affecting clean energy technologies have been introduced worldwide, compared to only 40 in the previous five years. This highlights the increasingly fragmented nature of clean energy markets, increasing the fragility of supply chains.
Energy security is gaining more importance every year as a core mission of the IEA. As the impacts of climate change once again highlight the need for clean energy transitions, it is becoming clear how these transitions will shape energy security. More efficient and cleaner energy systems have the potential to reduce energy security risks. However, this requires not only independence from traditional energy sources, but also the resilient clean energy supply chains.
Finally, it is expected that Chris Wright, who is expected to be the Minister of Energy in the cabinet formed during Trump’s second term after the US elections, will implement Trump’s energy dominance doctrine in terms of fossil fuels. It is observed that more LNG is formed on the supply side, and that strong signals are given that the policies of preserving the US leadership in oil production will continue. In particular, the EU’s increasing need for US LNG may pave the way for the market to be expanded in this area and to open up to Asia via Turkey. However, it is inevitable that the US will compete with China, which has become stronger in oil and gas during the Biden period, in return for the energy steps it will take in this area.
[1]“Clean energy soars but IEA warns of ‘fault line’ in World Energy Investment 2024”, IIGCC, https://shorturl.at/ibUIg, (Access Date: 30.12.2024).
[2]“Munich Security Report 2024”, MSC, https://securityconference.org/en/publications/munich-security-report-2024/?utm_source=chatgpt.com, (Access Date: 30.12.2024).
[3]World Energy Outlook 2024: The IEA predicts continued nuclear growth until 2050”, Foro Nuclear, https://shorturl.at/jdlVc, (Access Date: 30.12.2024).
[4]“Modular Reactor Technologies: The Future of Nuclear in Türkiye”, NBP, https://shorturl.at/mXM0T, (Access Date: 30.12.2024).
