The sanctions imposed by Western states on Russia due to the Ukrainian War put Moscow at risk of being isolated from the international system. However, with the influence of some regional powers and actors Moscow has gained a manoeuvring room where it can move freely despite the sanctions. When we look at the states that provide this opportunity to the Kremlin administration, China, India, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) come to the fore.
The energy needs of China and India, and the energy policies of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, ensure that Russia maintains its active role in the energy market against embargoes. Among these actors, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are considered the “weak points” in the policies of the Western World, which wants to push Russia into a corner. Indeed, if these countries produced more oil, it would lead to a decrease in energy prices, which lately have reached record levels. Thus, it was thought that decreasing energy prices would accelerate the collapse of the Russian economy. However, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the OPEC+ group, which includes some producer countries apart from OPEC, decided to reduce daily oil production by 2 million barrels on 5 October 2022.[1]
The decision taken by OPEC and the OPEC+ group was met with a reaction from the United States of America (US). Before the decision, the US officials established various contacts with the Gulf countries and demanded an increase in production. In this context, it was known that the aim of the US was to alleviate the economic problems in the country with increased oil production and to push Russia into a corner. However, despite the US, Saudi Arabia extended the OPEC+ cooperation agreement until the end of 2023 and announced that the supply restrictions would continue until this period.[2]
It is obvious that this decision will harm the economy of Western states as well as low and middle-income countries. Currently, Russia produces below the determined amount due to the sanctions. For this reason, it is thought that the 2-million-barrel cut will address the production of the Gulf countries. In its statement regarding this decision, Saudi Arabia declared that the decision aimed at protecting the country’s interests and did not have political aims.[3]
Following these developments, some members of the Democratic Party in the US House of Representatives presented a draft plan for the withdrawal of the soldiers in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. If the bill becomes law, it would require the withdrawal of American troops, of which 2,700 are positioned in Saudi Arabia and 2,000 in the UAE, as well as air defence systems such as the Patriot within ninety days.
The names presenting the bill stated that the security of Saudi Arabia and the UAE was provided by the US, therefore, it could not be accepted that these countries were working against the US. Washington sought alternatives to the oil produced by OPEC in this process, and once again opened to discussion the introduction of strategic oil reserves to the market and increasing oil production. In addition, the White House began to harden its rhetoric towards the Gulf countries after this decision. In the statements of the US officials, “untrustworthy state” and “dictator” remarks draw attention.[4]
On October 10, 2022, the Chairman of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Bob Menendez, made a written statement on OPEC’s production restriction decision. Menendez, who took the criticism of the US against Saudi Arabia one step further, argued that Riyadh made a choice between the US and Russia and that all relations with Saudi Arabia, including arms sales and security, should be frozen. Menendez also emphasized that unless Saudi Arabia reconsiders its position regarding the war in Ukraine, relations should not be re-established.[5]
It is known that Riyadh-Washington relations are strained lately. As a matter of fact, a tense atmosphere was observed during the visit of US President Joe Biden to Saudi Arabia. Moreover, the decision to reduce oil production not only led to a further deterioration in relations between the two countries but also gave Russia more power.
As it is known, while Western states are discussing the price cap for Russian oil; they aim at limiting Moscow’s revenues and depriving it of the financial resources to wage the war in Ukraine. However, the decision to reduce production within OPEC and OPEC+ has led to an increase in oil prices in the world. This will result in favouring Russia’s energy resources, at least for a while. Moreover, it will lead the West to import energy at a higher price.
To summarize briefly, it is seen that the relations between Russia and the Gulf countries have deepened. In fact, news has been published indicating that Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and President of Russia Vladimir Putin have many common aspects.[6] In addition, Moscow-Riyadh relations in the field of energy have gained momentum. For example, while the two states adopt a common stance on energy prices; Saudi Arabia is turning into an active actor in the Arctic Region through Russia. In this context, a memorandum of understanding was signed between Saudi Aramco and Novatek in January 2018; Riyadh has begun to play an important role in the Arctic in natural gas production and in the field of liquefied natural gas (LNG).[7]
It is obvious that all these developments were met with tensions in the US. The Washington administration does not only think that the relations established between the two countries have relieved Russia; it also believes that Moscow, improving its relations with the Gulf countries, has reached the potential to influence energy and world politics. Moreover, considering that rising energy prices negatively affect the US economy, a situation that will weaken Biden’s hand in the next presidential elections is emerging. As a result, Washington, which has established good relations with the Gulf countries for many years, is losing another region.
[1] Salma El Wardany-Grant Smith-Fiona MacDonald- Golnar Motevalli, “OPEC+ Rebuked by US After Cutting Output to Keep Prices High”, Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-05/opec-panel-recommends-2-million-barrel-cut-to-output-limits, (Date of Accession: 13.10.2022).
[2] Ibid.
[3] Wassim Samih Seifeddine-Mahmut Geldi, “Suudi Arabistan OPEC+ Grubunun Petrol Üretimini Düşürme Kararıyla ABD’yi Neden Karşısına Aldı?”, Anadolu Ajansı, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/ekonomi/suudi-arabistan-opec-grubunun-petrol-uretimini-dusurme-karariyla-abdyi-neden-karsisina-aldi/2710267, (Date of Accession: 13.10.2022).
[4] Deirdre Walsh, “Some Democrats Push to Punish Saudi Arabia after OPEC+ Move to Cut Oil Production”, NPR, https://www.npr.org/2022/10/06/1127212442/democrats-saudi-arabia-opec-cut-oil-production, (Date of Accession: 13.10.2022).
[5] “Chairman Menendez Statement on Future of United States-Saudi Relationship”, Foreign Relations Committee, https://www.foreign.senate.gov/press/dem/release/chairman-menendez-statement-on-future-of-united-states-saudi-relationship, (Date of Accession: 13.10.2022).
[6] Martin Chulov, “Putin and the Prince: Fears in West as Russia and Saudi Arabia Deepen Ties”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/05/putin-mohammed-bin-salman-russia-saudi-arabia-deepen-ties, (Date of Accession: 13.10.2022).
[7] Richard Clifford, “When the Kingdom Comes: Saudi Arabia in the Arctic”, The Polar Connection, https://polarconnection.org/saudi-arabia-arctic/, (Date of Accession: 13.10.2022).
