Donald Trump’s possible second presidential term has the potential to have a profound impact not only on US domestic politics but also on transatlantic relations and global democratic values. The leaked memorandum of Andreas Michaelis, the German Ambassador to Washington, assessed that Trump’s policies would undermine the principle of separation of powers and undermine democratic norms in the US. Moreover, his relations with technology giants and Elon Musk’s open support for far-right populist movements in Europe risk seriously affecting the political balance in Europe. In this framework, Germany’s diplomatic approach in the face of Trump’s policies and populist fluctuations in Europe provides important clues to understand how this period will shape transatlantic relations.
Andreas Michaelis’ confidential diplomatic report to the German Foreign Ministry and Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s office detailed the impact of Trump’s policies on democratic institutions. Michaelis stated that Trump would aim to concentrate power in the presidential office during his second presidential term, which would weaken key elements of the democratic system such as congressional, state and judicial independence. The memorandum argued that Trump’s plans to redefine the constitutional order would be characterized by a “policy of revenge” aimed at disrupting the established political order and bureaucratic structures.[1]
The threat that such policies pose to the US democratic checks and balances has been a source of concern for transatlantic partners such as Germany. The erosion of the separation of powers and the endangerment of media independence risk undermining not only US domestic politics but also global democratic values. These concerns, highlighted in Michaelis’ report, played a critical role in shaping Germany’s diplomatic strategy for Trump’s second term.
Trump’s close ties with tech giants such as Elon Musk is another important issue highlighted in Michaelis’ memorandum. Musk’s power in media and communication has the potential to be used as a tool to support Trump’s policies. In particular, Musk’s support for Germany’s far-right AfD party has raised Berlin’s concerns about foreign interference in democratic processes.
Musk attended an AfD rally in the eastern German city of Halle via video link, describing the party as “Germany’s best hope” and emphasizing the need to protect national pride.[2] Musk participated in the AfD’s election campaign via video link and stated that Germany needs to overcome its guilt over its Nazi past. Stating that children cannot be held responsible for the sins of their parents or grandparents, Musk argued that focusing on the past goes too far.[3] These statements overlapped with the AfD’s long-standing discourse of leaving Germany’s Nazi past behind.
Musk’s anti-immigrant rhetoric and statements that “multiculturalism dilutes everything” deepened the social polarization in Germany.[4] These statements resonated widely not only in Germany but also across Europe and strengthened populist discourses. In response to these statements, tens of thousands of people organized anti-AfD protests in cities such as Berlin and Cologne. The protests condemned racism and far-right rhetoric and demonstrated strong social opposition to these movements. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk described Musk’s comments as “dangerous” and “familiar”, especially as they came ahead of the anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz.[5] German Chancellor Olaf Scholz emphasized that freedom of expression applies to everyone in Germany and Europe, but support for far-right positions is unacceptable.
As the AfD is gaining more and more support in Germany’s largest economy, this rise is seen as a significant threat to democratic processes in Germany. Although the party has been ostracized by mainstream political parties due to its anti-immigrant stance, its recent successes show that right-wing populist movements are gaining strength in Germany.
Elon Musk’s influence in European politics has become increasingly evident in recent years, not only on the ground but also on social media. By purchasing the X platform, Musk has used it as a personal propaganda tool. In particular, his support for far-right figures and the spread of disinformation has raised serious concerns for governments in Europe. Increasing anti-immigrant and populist movements in countries such as Germany and the UK have been further strengthened by the content on Musk’s platform.[6] Moreover, Musk’s close relations with the Trump administration and his statements criticizing European leaders negatively affected the political balance on the continent. European Union leaders failed to develop an effective strategy against this situation.
European governments have struggled to take measures against Musk’s interventions. Under the Digital Services Act, investigations were launched against the X platform and large fines were imposed.[7] However, Musk’s closeness to Trump has led to slow progress. In the UK and Germany, there has been growing criticism that Musk’s platform has increased social unrest by spreading misinformation. Musk’s support for populist parties in Europe and his stance against institutional regulations threaten the continent’s balance in both political and economic terms.
In another case, his hand gesture at an event in the US was criticized for resembling a Nazi salute, but Musk used dismissive expressions against these reactions. In addition, his Nazi-themed jokes on social media also drew great reaction. Musk’s rhetoric and actions have been widely criticized for normalizing far-right ideas and increasing social polarization.
Elon Musk’s support for the AfD risks affecting the political balance not only in Germany but also across Europe.European governments have stated that Musk’s support for populist movements could harm democratic processes. Musk’s statement that “this is an election that will decide the fate of Europe and perhaps the world” reveals how critical the international implications of this process are.
Musk’s use of media power to promote populist rhetoric could have a devastating impact on democratic norms.This has led countries like Germany to adopt a cautious approach to transatlantic relations. At the same time, such external interference highlights the need for stronger international cooperation to protect democratic structures in Europe.
In conclusion, the possible second presidential term of Donald Trump and the support of figures such as Elon Musk for populist movements in Europe pose serious threats to transatlantic relations and global democratic values. Although Germany has adopted a cautious diplomatic line against Trump’s policies and the rise of right-wing populism in Europe, these dynamics foreshadow new tensions in the transatlantic partnership.
The weakening of the separation of powers and the erosion of democratic norms highlighted in Michaelis’ memorandum could have significant consequences not only for the US but also for global democracy. In Europe, the support of actors such as Elon Musk for populist movements has increased social polarization and reinforced fears of foreign interference in democratic processes. In this context, European governments need to develop a stronger strategy to protect democratic values.
[1] ‘’German ambassador warns Trump will test the US constitutional order, report says’’, AP News, https://apnews.com/article/germany-us-trump-7b47360c97f8f6ac11052303dd58e0c5 (Date of Access: 27.01.2024).
[2] Mitchell McCluskey & Sebastian Shukla, ‘’Elon Musk speaks at Germany’s AfD campaign launch as thousands protest the far-right party’’, CNN, https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/25/europe/elon-musk-germany-afd-protests-intl-latam/index.html (Date of Access: 27.01.2024).
[3] Sophie Tanno, ‘’Musk’s comments that Germany should ‘move beyond’ Nazi guilt are dangerous, says Holocaust memorial chair’’, CNN, https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/27/europe/israel-holocaust-memorial-chair-musk-criticism-intl/index.html (Date of Access: 27.01.2024).
[4] Emma-Victoria Farr, ‘’ Elon Musk tells far-right German political party ‘there is too much focus on past guilt’’’, USA Today, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2025/01/26/elon-musk-germany-nazis-guilt/77956196007/ (Date of Access: 27.01.2024).
[5] Same page.
[6] Rob Picheta, ‘’Elon Musk is causing trouble in Europe. What’s in it for him?’’, CNN, https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/23/europe/elon-musk-europe-politics-x-disinformation-gbr-cmd-intl (Date of Access: 27.01.2024).
[7] Same page.
