The streets of Ecuador have undergone a spiral of violence since one of the country’s most notorious gangsters and head of the criminal band Los Choneros, José Adolfo Macías Villamar, better known as Fito, managed to escape last 7th of January from the Guayaquil Regional prison. Following this event, criminal groups have been out of control from the government’s rule. They have been involved in several city riots and unbridled rampages. On Tuesday 9th of January, gunmen broke into a Guayaquil TV studio during a live broadcast, threatening the employees and creating chaos among the audience. In the aftermath of this assault, the young Ecuador President, Daniel Noboa, declared an official 60-day state of emergency, while also announcing that the country had just entered into an “internal armed conflict”.
Judging by Noboa´s words, everything seems to point out that Ecuador is going to attempt to follow El Salvador´s combative path to fight organized crime in the country. With 1.6%[i]of its total population in prison, El Salvador, under merciless president Nayib Bukele, has been since 2022 engaged in an incessant war on gangs. The Government has deployed army forces all over the country, persecuting criminal groups relentlessly and hunting down any dubious suspect.
This controversial strategy has presented itself as the perfect dichotomy between peace and security. Although this approach to fighting organized crime has been sternly criticized outside El Salvador, national citizens praise Bukele´s strategy as having brought peace to the country. Nonetheless, even if these policies have scored good results for San Salvador, breaking records in low numbers of homicides and violence across the country, it is highly unlikely that Ecuador is going to share the same blessed fate.
Ecuador’s strategic position, located between two of the largest cocaine producers in the world -Colombia and Peru- amplifies the country’s role as a transit hub for transnational drug trafficking networks. The country also has some valuable key ports that serve as crucial transit points for drug shipments destined for international markets. These circumstances are further compounded by the presence of powerful Mexican drug cartels within its borders. Unlike smaller, localized gangs in El Salvador, these transnational criminal organizations possess substantial economic resources, sophisticated logistical networks, and access to advanced weaponry.
The financial clout of these cartels enables them to corrupt public officials, intimidate local communities, and perpetuate violence with impunity, posing a formidable challenge to law enforcement agencies tasked with dismantling their operations. In addition, Ecuador’s significantly larger size compared to El Salvador exacerbates the challenges of law enforcement and security operations. Covering a vast territory with diverse landscapes, Ecuador’s law enforcement agencies face logistical hurdles in combating organized crime effectively.
President Daniel Noboa of Ecuador faces significant political challenges as he endeavors to address the escalating issue of organized crime in the country. Notably, Noboa’s tenure began just three months ago -after Guillermo Lasso’s suspension-, and he is operating within a limited timeframe due to the upcoming end of his mandate in early 2025. This places immense pressure on him to deliver tangible results in the fight against organized crime within a relatively short period.
In summary, while Ecuador may attempt to emulate the combative strategy seen in countries like El Salvador, the unique challenges and circumstances facing Ecuador may hinder its success. Without effective cooperation with neighboring countries such as Peru and Colombia, whose proximity and involvement in the drug trade significantly impact Ecuador’s security landscape, efforts to combat organized crime are likely to fall short. The absence of a coordinated regional approach not only hampers Ecuador’s ability to disrupt criminal networks operating across borders but also perpetuates the cycle of violence and instability in the region.
[i] “El Salvador in the grip of the ‘Bukele system’”, Le Monde, https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/07/16/el-salvador-in-the-grip-of-the-bukele-system_6055512_4.html, (Date Accessed: 31.01.2024).
