Analysis

Decline of French Military Presence in Africa and Regional Dynamics

Chad and Senegal’s decision to end military cooperation with France marks a historic turning point in Africa’s pursuit of sovereignty and independence.
The reduction of France’s military presence in the Sahel could lead to profound changes in the continent’s security and foreign policy dynamics.
Africa’s process of independence from France may open the door to a stronger position in the international system.

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Significant shifts have occurred in recent years regarding France’s military presence in Africa. Particularly, the decisions by Chad and Senegal to terminate their defense cooperation agreements with France signal a new political atmosphere on the continent. These steps are significant as they highlight a growing emphasis on independence from former colonial powers and the strengthening of national sovereignty policies. While African countries strive to build a more resilient structure against external interventions, such decisions also have the potential to reshape geopolitical balances in the region. The Chadian government reinforced its emphasis on national sovereignty with this decision, made during Independence Day celebrations, while the Senegalese government has taken a similar stance. This new approach adopted by both countries towards France can be interpreted not only as a military strategy but also as an effort to redefine Africa’s position in global politics. Indeed, these changes in the region clearly reflect the desire of African leaders and peoples to confront and move beyond the remnants of colonial structures.”Formun Altı

Chad’s decision to terminate its military cooperation agreement with France on its 66th independence anniversary has reverberated across the continent. This move can be seen as a critical step toward reducing France’s influence in the Sahel region. For a long time, France maintained a significant military presence in the area under the pretext of counterterrorism, notably through Operation Serval and later Operation Barkhane. However, these operations have faced increasing backlash from local populations in recent years. Not only have France’s efforts failed to achieve complete success, but they have also inadvertently amplified the influence of separatist and terrorist elements in the region. In this context, Chad’s decision to end France’s military presence reflects growing anti-French sentiment among its people. Similarly, Senegal has announced the closure of French military bases in line with its independence and national interests, a move that has been closely watched on the international stage. Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye’s emphasis on the importance of ending France’s military presence for national sovereignty highlights the firm stance regional leaders are taking on this issue.

The decline of France’s influence in the Sahel region is not limited to Chad and Senegal. France’s forced withdrawal from countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger has dealt a significant blow to its strategic objectives in the region. Military coups in these countries, accompanied by rising anti-French rhetoric, have substantially weakened France’s influence. Particularly, the withdrawal of French forces following the military coup in Niger has sparked debates over the disruption of counterterrorism coordination. While French media and sources emphasize that this withdrawal has created significant gaps in the regional security architecture, they have also criticized other international actors’ attempts to fill the void. In this process, Russia’s growing influence through the Wagner Group (now known as the African Corps) and China’s investments in infrastructure projects have intensified a new climate of competition in the region.

On the other hand, the decisions by Chad and Senegal have the potential to reshape the continent’s security architecture. The roles of regional organizations such as the African Union and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) have become increasingly significant in this process. For example, ECOWAS’s decision to impose economic sanctions following the coup in Niger reflects its efforts to strengthen internal security mechanisms. However, the impact of such decisions on regional security can lead to negative outcomes if adequate coordination is not achieved. The Sahel States Federation stands as a prime example of this. Formed by Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, the federation has made notable progress within approximately one and a half years.

France’s withdrawal also presents African countries with a significant opportunity to achieve economic independence and manage their resources more efficiently. With the closure of French bases, local governments have gained greater potential to implement their own economic projects in the areas previously occupied by these installations. For instance, the Senegalese government plans to fill the economic gap left by the closure of French bases through incentives aimed at supporting local entrepreneurs. In this context, there are plans to increase investments in infrastructure projects and the tourism sector.

The decline in investments from French companies has created an opportunity for African countries to diversify their economic relations and develop new partnerships in global markets. Economic collaborations with countries like China, Turkey, and India have stimulated activity across the continent in sectors such as infrastructure, energy, and technology. For example, China’s Mombasa-Nairobi Railway Project in Kenya has revitalized regional trade and provided employment for thousands of people. Such projects enable African countries to enhance their own economic capacities.

With France’s withdrawal, the reduction of external dependence on local economies and the more efficient utilization of local resources (especially natural resources) have become possible. This situation not only supports Africa’s efforts for economic independence but can also contribute to achieving sustainable development goals. The emergence of a more balanced and diversified structure in Africa’s economic relations can be seen as a significant step toward making the continent a stronger actor in the international system.

The rising anti-French wave in Africa has become increasingly evident, largely influenced by the continent’s young leaders and dynamic political movements. The youth population has developed a Pan-Africanist consciousness that critiques Africa’s dependence on France, and this has directly impacted the political decisions of leaders. Given that, as of 2022, 60% of Africa’s population is under 25, it is clear how this demographic will shape the continent’s politics in the future.  The growing presence of young leaders on the political stage is ensuring that national independence and economic reforms are more strongly advocated. In this context, Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye’s emphasis on independence through a young leadership approach, while prioritizing regional cooperation, serves as an example.

This leadership model is seen as a herald of a new political understanding that represents the continent’s future direction. The increasing political awareness among the youth carries potential not only at the national level but also within the decision-making bodies of continental organizations such as the African Union. Investments in areas like education, technology, and digitalization could further enhance this generation’s contribution to Africa’s independence efforts. This new wave represents not only a challenge to former colonial powers like France but also an awakening to Africa’s will to shape its own future.

The end of France’s military presence has opened the door to a new era of developing local solutions to Africa’s security issues. France’s withdrawal presents a significant opportunity for African countries, allowing local armies to operate more independently. Furthermore, it will provide African countries with the chance to enhance their own security capacities. This transformation could encourage the continent to develop more unique and independent strategies in its fight against terrorism. In Burkina Faso, the increase in the national defense budget and investments in local security forces are signs of efforts to close security gaps following France’s withdrawal. These developments highlight the importance of local leadership and the search for solutions, while limiting the influence of external actors.

Although private security entities like the ‘African Corps’ may have a short-term impact, this situation has made the necessity of local solutions even more apparent in the long run. For African countries to effectively utilize their own resources to address these issues is one of the most important steps in supporting the continent’s independence goals. This new process can not only ensure Africa’s security stability but also enable it to emerge as a stronger political actor on the international stage.

The independence efforts of African countries are being closely monitored on the international stage. The gradual reduction of France’s military presence has accelerated the continent’s efforts to strengthen its resistance to external interventions. This situation indicates that Africa is progressing from being a regional power to becoming a global actor in terms of its geopolitical significance. However, this process has also brought about economic and political uncertainties. Adopting an approach that prioritizes their national interests could play a key role for African countries in overcoming these uncertainties. If countries like Chad and Senegal support their independence efforts with sustainable development projects and regional cooperation, these changes could be solidified. The international community’s support for Africa’s transformation process could enhance the continent’s influence on global politics and economics. If managed correctly, Africa will not only shift the existing geopolitical balance but also take significant steps toward becoming a global power center.

In conclusion, Chad and Senegal’s decisions to end military cooperation with France represent not only a continental transformation process but also a reshaping of global politics. These decisions bring an opportunity for Africa to reach a stronger position in the international system, while also carrying risks and uncertainties. If Africa proceeds with internal reforms and fosters regional solidarity in a coordinated manner, it can transform its independence movements into a global success story. With sustained will and determination, Africa will shape its own future and establish itself as a continent that determines the direction of global politics.

Göktuğ ÇALIŞKAN
Göktuğ ÇALIŞKAN
Göktuğ ÇALIŞKAN, who received his bachelor's degree in Political Science and Public Administration at Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt University, also studied in the Department of International Relations at the Faculty of Political Sciences of the university as part of the double major program. In 2017, after completing his undergraduate degree, Çalışkan started his master's degree program in International Relations at Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli University and successfully completed this program in 2020. In 2018, she graduated from the Department of International Relations, where she studied within the scope of the double major program. Göktuğ Çalışkan, who won the 2017 YLSY program within the scope of the Ministry of National Education (MEB) scholarship and is currently studying language in France, is also a senior student at Erciyes University Faculty of Law. Within the scope of the YLSY program, Çalışkan is currently pursuing his second master's degree in the field of Governance and International Intelligence at the International University of Rabat in Morocco and has started his PhD in the Department of International Relations at Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli University. She is fluent in English and French.

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