Relations between China, Russia, and North Korea exhibit a complex dynamic, shaped by historical, strategic, and geopolitical contexts. Within the framework of existing and potential co-operation, these relationships significantly influence the balance of power in the international system. Over recent years, China’s sway over North Korea has diminished while Chinese concerns over Pyongyang’s inability to curtail its nuclear ambitions mounted. These apprehensions have been presumably exacerbated by North Korea’s significant tightening of ties with Russia this year.
In June 2024, North Korea and Russia signed a new alliance agreement, pledging mutual military assistance in the event of an attack on either nation. By October, various news and intelligence sources reported that Pyongyang had sent troops to Russia to bolster its efforts in Ukraine.[1] While official confirmation of North Korean troop deployments remains absent, the allegations, coupled with indications of potential support, underscore the deepening ties between the two countries. Such developments might have profound geopolitical ramifications on both regional and global scales.
Unlike the 1950s, a time when the Soviet Union surpassed China in all dimensions of hard power, Russia has, since the war in Ukraine, become a comparatively junior partner in its relations with China. Meanwhile, North Korea remains economically reliant on Beijing, importing almost all its trade and a significant portion of its energy from China since the post-Cold War era.[2] Within this context, the trilateral and bilateral interactions among China, Russia, and North Korea –three adjacent countries who are known to support each other in various means– play a pivotal role in shaping the balance of power in East Asia. For Beijing, this alliance presents both opportunities and risks. Consequently, the recent rapprochement between Russia and North Korea has amplified geopolitical concerns across the region.
China has refrained from making an official statement regarding allegations that North Korea has sent troops to Russia. It’s typical of Beijing to adopt a cautious stance on such claims. On 21 November 2024, during a routine press briefing, prompted by a question about the presence of North Korean soldiers in Russia, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated it had no information on the matter.[3] Some analysts believe that Beijing’s reticence signals dissatisfaction with the evolving military alliance between Pyongyang and Moscow. This silence is likely to reflect an awareness of the precariousness and potential perils of the situation.[4]
As North Korea’s primary trading partner, China plays a critical role in Pyongyang’s economic and political stability, perceiving the smaller country as a strategic buffer against US influence in the region. Simultaneously, Western sanctions stemming from the war in Ukraine have driven Russia to fortify its ties within Asia. Moscow’s rapprochement with North Korea represents a calculated move to mitigate its isolation and secure practical benefits, such as arms procurement.
Allegations of North Korea providing arms and military aid to Russia in the Ukrainian conflict might place China in a diplomatically challenging position. Given the fact that many politicians have already targeted China, Beijing was expected to react negatively to its two allies and neighbours. The US has been pressuring China to leverage its influence over North Korea to limit Pyongyang’s military alliance with Moscow. However, openly opposing this alliance risks pushing North Korea further into Russia’s sphere of influence, while overt support could provoke widespread international backlash. Although Beijing consistently advocates peaceful solutions, it is unlikely to adopt a hard-line stance against its two close neighbours, given its vested interests. This intricate balancing act narrows China’s room for manoeuvre in the realm of international relations.
China regards its alliance with Russia as a valuable counterbalance in the international sphere. Openly opposing the Russia-North Korea partnership could jeopardise Beijing’s relations with Moscow. At the same time, Beijing seeks to safeguard its commercial interests and preserve its standing on the global stage by steering clear of any indirect involvement in North Korea’s role in the conflict in Ukraine. It is anticipated that diplomatic channels will be employed and a carefully calibrated policy of balance maintained to uphold strategic alliances and protect China’s international reputation. The measures Beijing adopts in this context will be guided by its objectives of sustaining influence over North Korea, preserving its alliance with Russia, and ensuring regional stability. In this regard, China may adopt a stance of discreet criticism towards the Russia-North Korea alliance, articulating its concerns subtly rather than through overt opposition. Nonetheless, China’s strategy encounters several significant challenges. The increasingly autonomous and unpredictable leadership of North Korea’s Kim Jong Un is emerging as a critical factor undermining Beijing’s leverage over Pyongyang. Moreover, sustained Western criticism could lead to accusations that China is indirectly supporting North Korea, potentially resulting in sanctions.
Within this context, it is crucial to acknowledge China’s significant influence over both Russia and North Korea. Both nations rely on China’s support to mitigate the effects of Western sanctions. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, North Korea has become profoundly dependent on China across various domains. Experts posit that Beijing could leverage this influence to temper the burgeoning alliance between North Korea and Russia.[i]
Thus far, China has pursued a meticulously balanced approach to the Russia-North Korea partnership, striving to safeguard its own interests while averting conflict. From the perspective of regional stability, the increasing sway of Russia over North Korea introduces complexities to China’s strategic calculations in the region. Beijing’s prospective measures might encompass diplomatic overtures as well as the application of economic leverage. While the challenges inherent in this process may constrain the efficacy of China’s strategy, it is evident that Beijing will endeavour to manage the risks posed by the Russia-North Korea alliance, all while striving to uphold its stature as a regional power.
[1] Zhang, F. (2024, November 25). “Is China being played by North Korea and Russia?”, Responsible Statecraft, https://responsiblestatecraft.org/china-russia-north-korea/, (Date Accession: 26.11.2024).
[2] Ibid.
[3] McCarthy, S. (2024, October 25). “Analysis: As North Korea, Iran and China support Russia’s war, is a “new axis” emerging?”, CNN, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/24/asia/russia-china-north-korea-iran-new-axis-intl-hnk/index.html (Date Accession: 26.11.2024).
[4] Press, T. A. (2024, November 1). “U.S. calls on a silent China to use its sway over Russia and North Korea”, NPR, https://www.npr.org/2024/11/01/g-s1-31427/us-china-north-korea-russia-ukraine, (Date Accession: 26.11.2024).
[i] Porter, T. (n.d.). “China is increasingly unnerved by Russia and North Korea’s growing alliance, says top US official”, Business Insider, https://www.businessinsider.com/china-unnerved-north-korea-russia-alliance-us-official-kurt-campbell-2024-11, (Date Accession: 26.11.2024).
