Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu made his first state visit to Beijing on January 11, 2024. During this visit, important steps were taken in enhancing bilateral relations. Chinese President Xi Jinping described Muizzu as an “old friend” in his speech at the Great Hall of the People and approved the “comprehensive strategic cooperation partnership” that paves the way for further investment in the Indian Ocean islands.[i] Xi Jinping stated, “China and the Maldives are facing a historic opportunity to move forward into the future.”
Muizzu took office in November 2023 and had characterized India’s significant influence as a “regional competition” in his election campaign. Muizzu has also highlighted investment opportunities in Beijing.[ii] With the strengthening of relations between the two countries, China is laying the groundwork for increased investment in the Indian Ocean region, considering Sri Lanka, another neighbor of India, has already gravitated towards China. According to the statement by the Maldives Presidential Office; “Muizzu expressed his gratitude for China’s significant role in the Maldives’ economic success and its contributions to infrastructure development. In addition, 20 important agreements were signed between the two countries.”[iii]
According to World Bank data, the Maldives has $1.37 billion worth of trade relations with China. This situation makes China significant partner for the Maldives. According to the American Enterprise Institute, the Maldives decided to join China’s Belt and Road Initiative in 2014. Since then, Chinese companies have invested $1.37 billion in the Maldives. Regarding the issue, Xi Jinping stated, “China is determined to support the Maldives in safeguarding its national sovereignty, independence, and national pride,” and also conveyed that Beijing is “ready to share its experiences in state governance.”.[iv]
This investment places the Maldives in a key position within China’s cross-border diplomatic efforts. It can be argued that the relations between Male and Beijing, which are likely to start as commercial and then develop into political, military and diplomatic efforts, will have a significant impact on China’s regional leadership role. The Maldives holds a crucial geopolitical position in the Indian Ocean. Moreover, its proximity to India, the Middle East, the African continent, and the Red Sea strategically positions it within this geography.
Before meeting Xi Jinping, Muizzu toured the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Museum in Beijing, a video of which was shared on Twitter by the Presidential Office. Xi expressed his support for increasing the number of direct flights between the two countries. This could be an advantage for the Maldives’ travel and tourism sector and, according to the Asian Development Bank, could represent a potential boost to the industry, which accounted for 79% of economic growth in 2022.[v]
The relationship between the Asian Development Bank and the Maldives could later lead to a rapprochement between the Maldives and BRICS. Geopolitically, the Maldives is close to Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). At this point, it can be said that the geography that BRICS wants to expand to includes the Maldives. However, potential tensions and increasing levels of competition between Malé and New Delhi could act as a barrier to the Maldives joining BRICS.
China’s decision to increase its investment in the Maldives could impact the geopolitical balance in the region. Tensions with India and the Maldives’ tendency to establish a strategic partnership with China could lead to shifts in the regional power balance. This could limit India’s influence in the region and increase China’s presence in the Indian Ocean.
The new Maldivian leader’s campaign, which views India as a rival, reflects the broader India-China competition in the region. This could lead to tensions in India-Maldives relations and affect other countries in the region. India’s response to this situation and its efforts to collaborate with other regional actors could significantly impact the regional balance.
China’s economic investments in the Maldives, especially infrastructure projects and cooperation in the tourism sector, can increase the country’s economic growth potential. This may lead China to present its cooperation with the Maldives as an example to its other allies. After all, the Maldives’ strategic position in the Indian Ocean means that China’s increasing interest in the country could impact regional maritime security dynamics.
[i] “Maldives Upgrades Ties with China Amid Pivot from India”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/maldives-upgrades-ties-with-china-amid-pivot-india-2024-01-10/, (Access Date: 11.01.2024).
[ii] “China, Maldives Upgrade Ties with Infrastructure Deals in Pivot from India”, Al Jazeera, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/11/china-maldives-upgrade-ties-with-infrastructure-deals-in-pivot-from-india, (Access Date:: 12.02.2024).
[iii] “Maldives Upgrades Ties with China Amid India Pivot”, MarketScreener, https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/Maldives-upgrades-ties-with-China-amid-India-pivot-45717993/, (Access Date: 11.01.2024).
[iv] Ibid.
[v] Ibid.
