The diplomatic landscape in the Maldives is undergoing a significant realignment as President Mohamed Muizzu embarks on his inaugural state visit to China, highlighting a discernible shift in the balance of influence between India and China in the region. This strategic visit, scheduled from January 8 to 12, has raised eyebrows, particularly in Indian media, where concerns about the diminishing Indian influence in the Maldives and the growing sway of China are gaining prominence.
India’s longstanding ties with the Maldives are multifaceted and historically rooted. The Maldives holds strategic importance for India, not only due to geographic proximity but also owing to shared ethnic, linguistic, and cultural ties. India was one of the first countries to recognize the Maldives’ independence, establishing resident missions in 1979. Economically, the Maldives is a crucial partner for India, with the two countries sharing close economic and political ties. Indian military personnel have been stationed in the Maldives, and India has played a key role in training the Maldivian soldiers under the Defence Cooperation Agreement since 1988.[1] Furthermore, the Indian Coast Guard conducts regular Dornier sorties over the Maldives, enhancing maritime security and cooperation.
President Muizzu’s decision to prioritize China over India for his maiden state visit has fueled speculations about a recalibration of the Maldives’ foreign policy. The fact that he is the first foreign head of state to visit China in 2024 underlines the profound importance both nations attach to fostering bilateral relations, marking a departure from the conventional practice of Maldivian leaders choosing India as their primary diplomatic destination. The Maldives’ growing economic and infrastructural dependence on China, highlighted by Chinese investments totalling $1.37 billion since the Maldives joined the Belt and Road Initiative in 2014, signifies a potential pivot away from India.[2]
The expansion of Velana International Airport stands out as a testament to the collaborative efforts under the Belt and Road Initiative. This vital project not only contributes to the modernization of the Maldives’ aviation capabilities but also positions the country as a crucial hub in the broader regional connectivity envisioned by the BRI. The upgraded airport facilitates increased air traffic, promoting tourism and trade – key components of the BRI´s overarching goals. Another significant project that underscores the deepening ties between China and the Maldives is the construction of the China-Maldives Friendship Bridge, also known as the Sinamalé Bridge. Spanning across the sea, this bridge links the capital city, Malé, with the neighbouring Hulhulé Island. The bridge serves as a vital transportation artery, fostering efficient connectivity and easing the movement of people and goods between these two key islands.
These infrastructural contribute substantially to the Maldives’ economic development, fortifying the nation’s position as a burgeoning hub in the ever-evolving geopolitical and economic dynamics of the Indian Ocean region. The improved transportation links facilitate smoother trade routes, making the Maldives a more attractive destination for investments and trade partnerships. Additionally, the enhanced connectivity supports the Maldives’ tourism industry, a cornerstone of its economy, by making the archipelago more accessible to international visitors.
The comprehensive discussions during President Muizzu´s visit touched upon a wide spectrum of diplomatic endeavours, resulting in the formalization of significant agreements that solidified the strategic partnership. Economic agreements took centre stage, building upon the foundations laid by the Belt and Road Initiative.[3] These economic endeavours are set to further fortify the economic ties between China and the Maldives, paving the way for sustained growth and development.
Besides, in the political realm, President Muizzu reiterated Maldives’ firm commitment to the “One China” policy during the recent high-level discussions with President Xi Jinping. President Muizzu’s affirmation serves as a crucial diplomatic statement, signaling the Maldives’ unwavering support for China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.[4]
Overall, the recent meetings between President Xi Jinping and President Muizzu not only marked a significant leap forward in China-Maldives relations but also underscored a notable shift in the geopolitical landscape of the region. The anticipated agreements and collaborations between the two nations go beyond mere diplomatic niceties, signalling a tangible deepening of their strategic partnership. The geopolitical dynamics in the Indian Ocean are witnessing a transformation, and India, historically positioned as a dominant influence in the Maldives, is now grappling with a diminishing role.
[1] “Navigating the Geopolitical Waters: India-Maldives Relations in a Shifting Global Landscape”, The Geopolitics, https://thegeopolitics.com/navigating-the-geopolitical-waters-india-maldives-relations-in-a-shifting-global-landscape/, (Date of Accession: 17.01.2024).
[2] “Maldives president courts investors in China as Indian ties sag”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/maldives-president-courts-investors-china-ties-with-india-sag-2024-01-09/, (Date of Accession: 17.01.2024).
[3] “Maldives, China agree to ‘elevate’ strategic cooperation”, The Hindu, https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/maldives-china-agree-to-elevate-strategic-cooperation/article67730447.ece, (Date of Accession: 17.01.2024).
[4] “China y Maldivas elevan sus lazos durante conversaciones de presidentes”, Diario del Pueblo, http://spanish.peopledaily.com.cn/n3/2024/0111/c31621-20120416.html, (Date of Accession: 17.01.2024).
