In the statement made by the United States of America (US) Department of State, it has been announced that a delegation headed by Donald Lu, the US Deputy Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, will visit Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, on May 23-27, 2022, to strengthen the relations of the US with Central Asian countries.[1] The fact that Eric Green, the Senior Director of the US State Department’s National Security Council for Russia and Central Asia, and US Department of Defense officials also took part in the delegation reveals that the Washington administration attaches great importance to this visit.[2]
As it is known, Central Asia is in the center of the Eurasian region, that is, in the heart of the world. This situation brings along the fact that the region in question is of great importance in projects and policies related to Europe, the Middle East and South Asia, especially in the energy and transportation corridors. This, in turn, increases the interest of the global powers that want to dominate the geopolitics of Eurasia in the region.
In this context, it can be said that Russia and China are the two main actors operating in the region with the effect of geographical proximity. While Russia does not want Western actors to gain influence in Central Asia, which it sees as its backyard within the scope of the Near Abroad Doctrine, also known as the Primakov Doctrine, China is developing its relations with the regional states through the Belt-Road Project and seeking ways to increase its influence on the countries of the region through its economic power.
Both actors believe that an instability that will occur in the states of the region will also spread to them. For this reason, it is seen that Russia is trying to bring the regional states together around common security policies through the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and China through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
On the other hand, one of the actors who wants to be effective in Central Asia is the US. In fact, Washington wants the states of the region to become pro-Western actors, believing that thus it can suppress and limit both China, which is challenging its global hegemony, and Russia, its traditional “other”.
At this point, to understand the goals of the US in its Central Asia policy, it is necessary to refer to the document entitled “United States of America Strategy for Central Asia 2019-2025: Improving Sovereignty and Economic Prosperity”[3]. In this document, the US described Central Asia as a highly strategic region in terms of its national security policies.[4] As the name of the document suggests, the Washington administration sees the strengthening of the independence and sovereignty of the Central Asian states as a situation that will serve to break the Russian influence over these countries. In addition, the White House advocates to increase the economic welfare of the peoples of the region and, as can be expected, thinks that this prosperity can be achieved through economic liberalization. The liberalization of the states in the region essentially means that they are moving away from Russia and China.
In the document, it is seen that six goals have been determined regarding the Central Asian policy of the American foreign policy. It is also necessary to interpret the visit of the American delegation to the region based on these goals. The goals in question can be listed as follows:[5]
- Supporting and strengthening of the sovereignty and independence of the Central Asian states
- Reducing terrorist threats in Central Asia
- Developing cooperation at the regional level and conducting joint studies with regional states to establish stability in Afghanistan
- Promoting Central Asia-Afghanistan connectivity and developing projects for it
- Supporting made reforms in the field of human rights with the aim of forming state structures based on the rule of law
- The USA’s encouraging of the development of the region by making investments in Central Asia
In fact, although these goals of the USA in regional policy are reflected in the strategy document covering the years 2019-2025, the main reason for the creation of the C5 + 1, the foundations of which were laid on September 26, 2015, was that the US wanted to negotiate with the Central Asian countries on issues of common interest. The format in question is still in use. Therefore, it is possible to talk about a continuity in the regional policy of the US.
At this stage, if it is necessary to return to the Central Asia visit of the delegation headed by Lu, it can be said that two factors were effective in the visit conjunctural. The first of these is the Russian-Ukrainian War. The US may want to use Russia as turning its face to Ukraine and even Eastern Europe and the Baltics as an advantageous situation in Central Asia.
The second is the reform processes in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Because these countries are taking important steps to strengthen their democracy and increase the welfare level in their countries through the reforms they have realized. The reforms that can be described as liberalization, in essence, mean that Nur-Sultan and Tashkent turn to the West. Therefore, it can be said that Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will come to the fore in the context of the reform processes during the visit of the American delegation. In addition, it is seen that Kyrgyzstan has also made moves to strengthen its independence through the steps it has taken in the context of nation building, especially about the Kyrgyz language. Undoubtedly, these moves do not go unnoticed by the US either. It can be argued that moves that consolidate the sovereignty and independence of Kyrgyzstan will be supported by Washington, and this situation will be evaluated as breaking the Russian influence on Kyrgyzstan.
On the other hand, the presence of officials of the Defense Ministry in the American delegation is a harbinger that Afghanistan-based developments and threats will also have a wide place in the negotiations to be held. Undoubtedly, the Central Asian countries are also affected by the instability experienced in this country due to their close geography with Afghanistan. Moreover, it is also known that the terrorist organization Devlet al-Iraq and al-Sham (DAESH), which the regional states have identified as a terrorist organization, has pledged allegiance to the so-called Emirate of Khorasan (ISKP). This, in turn, indicates that DAESH, whose activities in Afghanistan are increasing, may become an element of regional instability. As a matter of fact, DAESH claims that it has carried out attacks on Tajikistan and Uzbekistan recently. In this context, it can be predicted that Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, which are bordering states to Afghanistan, will come to the fore in the security part of the topics to be discussed during the visit. In particular, the open support of Tajikistan to the Panjshir Movement may open the door to an Afghanistan-based cooperation process in the relations on the Dushanbe-Washington line. Because the Washington administration maintains its human rights-based criticism of the Taliban and does not take any steps to recognize the government established by the Taliban and wants an administration to be established that will cover all identity groups in Afghanistan.
As a result, the US delegation is making a visit to Central Asia to discuss the reform processes in Central Asia and the Afghan Problem. Looking at the timing of the visit, it can be said that Russia’s focus on the Ukrainian War was intended to be turned into an opportunity by the Washington administration. Because the goal of the US in Central Asia policy is to limit the influence of Russia and China.
[1] “Межведомственная делегация США посетит Казахстан, Кыргызстан, Узбекистан и Таджикистан”, Sputnik, https://ru.sputnik.kz/20220523/mezhvedomstvennaya-delegatsiya-ssha-posetit-kazakhstan-kyrgyzstan-uzbekistan-i-tadzhikistan-24978169.html, (Date of Accession: 24.05.2022).
[2] Ibid.
[3] “United States Strategy for Central Asia 2019-2025 Advancing Sovereignty and Economic Prosperity”, Departmant of State United States of America, https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/FINAL-CEN-Strategy-Glossy-2-10-2020-508.pdf, (Date of Accession: 24.05.2022).
[4] “United States Strategy…”, op. cit., p. 3.
[5] Ibid.
