On April 11, 2023, there were reports that documents containing Pentagon reports on the Russia-Ukraine War were published on a Discord server. The Pentagon has not made a clear statement as to who published the documentsHowever, from the reaction of the Kremlin and the White House, it is understood that the documents are likely to be correct. In particular, it is a matter of curiosity how the documents containing contents related to the use of nuclear warheads will affect the course of the Russia-Ukraine War.
It is understood that Ukraine, which continues to defend within the framework of speculations and positive opinions, with the ammunition aid it has received recently, its membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the European Union (EU) and its great resistance on the front line, is concerned about the nuclear threat that may come from Russia. Moreover, it seems that not only Ukraine feels this concern; the entire Western Bloc, especially the United States (USA), feels it.
On the Moscow side, it is often emphasized that the war continues with the support of countries such as China and India, and that Russia will continue the war without compromising its goals. As it will be remembered, Russian President Vladimir Putin, in his statements, was signaling that he might use nuclear warheads as a reflection of his deterrence policy. However, it is also stated in the leaked documents that these nuclear warheads can be used if the situation on the battlefield starts to work against Russia.
Recently, the abstemious attitude of some Asian countries, including South Korea, to providing war assistance or selling weapons to Ukraine has been drawing attention. South Korea based this stance on the principle that “it cannot sell weapons to countries that are actively at war”. The United States, on the other hand, often put pressure on the South Korean government and, as a last resort, was preparing to suggest that weapons could be sold to Poland.
The emergence of all this information in the leaked documents can be described as a turning point in South Korea’s relations with Russia and the United StatesBecause South Korean dissidents, in particular, consider the situation as a major security weakness and convey that this is an element that can damage not only the Russia-Ukraine War, but also the independence of South Korea.
On the other hand, against the US and Ukraine’s search for ammunition, the Russian mercenary group Wagner was also in search of weapons. Along with the leaked documents, it has been revealed that Wagner has been negotiating arms sales with various formations and some NATO member countries. In such a case, it can be argued that NATO member countries do not fulfill their responsibilities towards the Western Bloc. However, it is not clear which parts of the documents are correct.
Another element contained in the documents suggests that there are groups of some Western countries fighting in Ukraine. For this matter, it is believed that Britain hosts the most troops in Ukraine. However, although it is known that England has helped Ukraine many times since the beginning of the war and continued to increase its ammunition support, no clear statement has been made from the London administration.
On the other hand, there is also a US dimension to the event. Washington is aware that China has recently improved its diplomatic relations. Leaking the documents may cause the dollar, which is the reserve currency that it always boasts in the world, to lose its former popularity in the future. On the other hand, the message of autonomous action given by EU countries to the United States after the AUKUS Pact against China may evolve into a process that will scare Washington.
While China’s trust and support for Russia is evident; The economic agreements signed by French President Emmanuel Macron with China and the statements he made on Taiwan also indicate that the United States has lost its unifying power and that China may become even stronger diplomatically. However, the support of Ukraine as NATO and the billions of dollars spent on defeating Russia alone may have led the United States to evaluate this issue. Because the Pentagon has not yet clearly denied the incident. This raises a doubt that many of the documents, perhaps even all of them, are correct.
The possibility that the Pentagon may have voluntarily disseminated these documents may be due to the thought that the Russia-Ukraine War should be ended through diplomatic relations. While the support received by Ukraine is gradually increasing, the fact that Russia has not achieved a clear success strengthens Kiev’s hand. However, it should be noted that this situation increases the possibility of Russia turning to the use of nuclear warheads. Since the suspension of the New Start Agreement, there have been concerns that the Moscow administration may use nuclear warheads. With Finland’s recent NATO membership, the possibility of Russia seeing a NATO country as a threat on its border is getting stronger.
In addition to all these, the USA may have wanted to reveal that one of the parties has not yet achieved a clear gain in the war with these documents it has published. This may be an approach to prevent attempts that could escalate on the front line in the coming days and cause major destruction.
As a result, it is seen in the documents leaked from the Pentagon that Russia could not make a clear gain in the region in the Russia-Ukraine War that has been going on for more than a year. The possibility that Putin will use nuclear warheads to achieve his goals may be intimidating the United States. On the other hand, while the war was going on, the diplomatic negotiations between some countries and Western countries with Asian countries show that the USA lost its former unifying power. Nevertheless, the documents may increase the desire to end the war by diplomatic means.
