The new migration agreement reached between El Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele and US President Donald Trump allows the US to hold deportees in El Salvador. The most striking aspect of the agreement is that not only illegal immigrants, but also people who have committed crimes and been convicted in the United States, and even some American citizens, will be held in controversial mega-prisons in El Salvador. This development could profoundly affect not only relations between the two countries, but also migration and security dynamics in Latin America.
The rapprochement between Trump and Bukele can be seen as a strategic cooperation shaped by the political goals of both leaders. While the Trump administration plans to take tougher measures to restrict migration and accelerate deportations, Bukele seeks to forge strong ties with the United States to consolidate his authoritarian rule in El Salvador and increase his influence on the international stage.
Bukele’s proposal to the Trump administration includes the admission of people in the US illegally and even some prisoners.[1] For Trump, this agreement offers a great opportunity to speed up deportations and reduce the prison burden in the US. Especially for Trump, who often uses the rhetoric of fighting gangs like MS-13, this deal is presented as a new tool in the fight against crime. Although the US repatriation of Salvadoran migrants is nothing new, this is the first time that the idea of permanently transferring people convicted in the US to the prisons of another country has been brought to the agenda.
With this agreement, Bukele aims to gain the support of the United States while at the same time making economic gains. The Salvadoran Government plans to receive financial support from the United States in exchange for keeping deported prisoners in the country. However, given the current prison conditions and allegations of human rights violations in El Salvador, this raises major ethical and legal questions.
With Bukele’s coming to power, relations between El Salvador and the United States have taken on a new dimension. The Biden administration has criticized Bukele for human rights abuses and democratic backsliding, while the Trump administration sees him as a strong security partner. If this agreement is implemented, the US’s consistency on human rights could be seriously questioned.
It is likely that this agreement will not be limited to El Salvador and the United States. Other countries in Latin America may also be affected by the hardening of US migration policies.
Mexico is a key transit point for Central American migrants trying to reach the US. Such an agreement with El Salvador could increase pressure on Mexico if the US activates the option to send deported prisoners to that country. Without a migration agreement with the US, Mexico may have to adopt new strategies in terms of border security and diplomatic relations. In particular, if the US offers Mexico a similar agreement, this could lead to a major shift in migration policies.
On the other hand, countries like Guatemala and Honduras could also be directly affected by this agreement. El Salvador’s cooperation with the United States could force these countries into similar agreements. The US could expand this policy by offering economic incentives to countries that accept deported migrants. However, the reception of such prisoners by countries such as Guatemala and Honduras could also undermine internal security. The return of migrants and prisoners could cause social and economic instability in these countries.
One of the biggest risks in the region is that criminal organizations will take advantage of these developments. Some of the people deported from the United States and sent to El Salvador may be linked to organized crime groups such as MS-13 or Tren de Aragua. While El Salvador has cracked down on these gangs through Bukele’s tough security policies, new criminals sent to prisons could strengthen gang structures from within. This could lead to a further spread of gang activity not only in El Salvador, but throughout the Central American region. The possibility that prisoners deported from the US could be radicalized in prisons, creating a more dangerous criminal network should not be ignored. The agreement is therefore likely to have far greater repercussions for regional security and stability.
The Trump administration’s idea to deport US citizens and permanent residents could face serious legal obstacles. Legal experts emphasize that US-born persons cannot be deported to another country.[2] However, those who have acquired US citizenship later in life, or who have been linked to crimes such as gang membership, can be stripped of citizenship through the process of “denaturalization”.[3]
From the perspective of international law, it is highly controversial for a state to send its citizens to another country to be imprisoned. Given El Salvador’s prison conditions and human rights abuses, this could pose serious ethical and legal problems. While the international community has already criticized the mass detentions in Bukele’s mega-prisons, the U.S. support for these practices could provoke a backlash.
This agreement between Bukele and Trump appears to be a pragmatic cooperation for political gains. While Trump is trying to send a message to his voter base by maintaining his tough stance on immigration policies, Bukele is focusing on consolidating his power internationally and making economic gains. However, the enforceability of this agreement will depend on US domestic law and international human rights standards. If the transfer of prisoners to El Salvador goes ahead, it will create a major ethical and legal debate at the global level.
[1] Buschschlüter, Vanessa. “Could US Criminals Be Sent to El Salvador’s Mega-Jail?” BBC News, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg4jx8xyjgo, (Accessed Date: 02.09.2025).
[2] Rascius, Brendan. “Can US Citizens Be Deported? El Salvador Offers to Take American Criminals, Rubio Says.” Miami Herald, https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article299705834.html, (Accessed Date: 02.09.2025).
[3] “SEC. 6. Denaturalization of Criminal Gang Members and Supporters.” H.R.1995 — 117th Congress (2021-2022), In the House of Representatives, https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/1995/text, (Accessed Date: 02.09.2025).
