In March 2025, the agenda of Bosnia and Herzegovina was very active in the light of domestic political developments. Milorad Dodik, the President of the Republika Srpska (RS), which is part of Bosnia and Herzegovina but has its own autonomous region, and two other leaders were sentenced to 1 year in prison and 6 years of exclusion from politics for violating the constitutional order of Bosnia and Herzegovina and disobeying the decisions of the The Office of the High Representative (OHR). Dodik said that he did not recognise the decisions taken against him, and in response, he passed even more separatist resolutions through the RS parliament, leading to increased tensions. This situation has brought the issue of the state structure in Bosnia and Herzegovina back to the agenda, the functionality of which has always been discussed since the establishment of the country.
As a result of the Dayton Peace Agreement signed after the war that took place in Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1992-1995, Bosniaks, Croats and Serbs, the three founding ethnic groups of the country, reached an agreement to govern the country together. According to this agreement, Bosnia and Herzegovina consists of a federation where Croats and Bosniaks live predominantly and a unitary republic where Serbs constitute the majority. Although the Dayton Peace Agreement ended the bloody conflict of the 1990s, it also opened the door to an unstable and non-functional system of governance for Bosnia and Herzegovina that would make it easier for ethnic elements to play politics with their own agendas. Since then, Serbian ideas of separatism and even unification with Serbia have been on the agenda from time to time. However, the events of March have made it clear that the Serbs now seriously want to fulfil these ideas.
The Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina sentenced Dodik to 1 year of imprisonment and 6 years of prohibition from office after long trials for Dodik, who had been expressing his separatist ideas without hesitation for a long time and did not comply with the decisions of the OHR. Instead of taking a step back against these steps, Dodik tried to institutionalise his separatist views by taking more radical decisions. The RS National Assembly agreed on a draft constitution for the entity, according to which the entity can enter into confederation and federation relations with other countries. According to the same text, the entity will also have its own army. It also granted the Republika Srpska entity the right to own and operate all assets within its borders. It announced a number of measures to restrict the activities of Bosnia and Herzegovina institutions in the entity of Republika Srpska. According to decisions adopted by the RS National Assembly, the activities of the Supreme Judicial and Prosecutorial Council of Bosnia and Herzegovina (VSTV), the Prosecutor’s Office of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Agency for Investigation and Protection of Bosnia and Herzegovina (SIPA) are prohibited. In addition to these decisions, the RS also established its own border police organisation.[1] The Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina announced that it suspended these laws after these decisions.
It is obvious that Dodik’s decisions have become a turning point for himself and the future of the RS. Dodik may have thought that he could make some gains through separatism at a time of intense international conjuncture and regional events. Indeed, the Donald Trump administration in the United States of America (USA) and the new right-wing, populist and anti-NATO movements emerging in Western Europe have encouraged Dodik.[2] However, Dodik may have been disappointed that he did not find the support he expected for his decisions. Even the Trump administration, from which he expected the most support, harshly criticised Dodik and declared that it did not want a further crisis after the Ukraine Crisis. Russia, on the other hand, could not support Dodik’s initiatives enough as it was focussed on the war in Ukraine. The European Union (EU) declared its support for the territorial unity of Bosnia and Herzegovina and condemned Dodik’s decisions. Another reaction came from Mark Rutte, Secretary General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). Rutte reminded that NATO would not allow the power gap experienced in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the 90s to happen again and stated that they support the unity of Bosnia and Herzegovina.[3] Finally, in Serbia, where he perhaps hoped for the most support, massive protests and the resignation of the government in recent months have prevented Dodik from being strongly supported. Nevertheless, Serbian President Vucic and government officials visited Dodik in Banja Luka and declared their support.
President Dodik, who failed to make the impact he expected, has entered an unrecoverable path. Dodik’s decisions have become less and less likely to be successful and have isolated the Serbian entity internationally.[4] The opposition in the Serbian entity, despite having separatist ideas, did not support Dodik in his decisions and declared that the entity had isolated itself. In the upcoming period, while the application of Dodik’s sentences will continue to be debated, how to reduce tensions in the society will continue to be on the agenda. If Dodik succeeds, the regional balance of power may be shaken and other separatist political and social movements may become active in neighbouring countries.
[1] “Objavljujemo Nacrt novog ustava RS-a: Republika Srpska može sklopiti (kon)federaciju sa susjednim zemljama”, Istraga, https://istraga.ba/objavljujemo-nacrt-novog-ustava-rs-a-republika-srpska-moze-sklopiti-konfederaciju-sa-susjednim-zemljama/, (Date Accessed: 20.03.2025).
[2] “Is the separatist Serb leader in Bosnia and Herzegovina encouraged by the far-right winds in Europe?”, Timebalkan, https://timebalkan.com/bosna-hersekteki-ayrilikci-sirp-lider-avrupadaki-asiri-sag-ruzgarindan-mi-cesaret-aliyor/, (Date Accessed: 21.03.2025).
[3] “Statement by NATO Secretary-General Rutte on the events following the sentencing of Serbian leader”, Timebalkan, https://timebalkan.com/nato-genel-sekreteri-rutteden-sirp-lider-dodikin-aldigi-ceza-sonrasinda-yasananlara-iliskin-aciklama/, (Date Accessed: 22.03.2025).
[4] “Dodik’s Assault on Bosnia’s Justice System Can Only Lead to Chaos” BalkanInsight, https://balkaninsight.com/2025/03/10/dodiks-assault-on-bosnias-justice-system-can-only-lead-to-chaos/, (Date Accessed: 21.03.2025).
