United States of America (USA) Secretary of State Antony John Blinken is conducting a series of diplomatic engagements in Laos, Vietnam, Japan, the Philippines, Singapore, and Mongolia as part of his working visit from July 25 to August 3, 2024.[i] In the wake of U.S. President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the upcoming presidential election in November, Blinken’s visits to Asia hold considerable significance, as they underscore the United States’ robust and unwavering commitment to its allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific region. Indeed, this visit represents the continuation of the commitment to Asia by both President Biden and his endorsed successor, Vice President Kamala Harris.
Despite the Biden administration’s commitment to address every corner of the region as articulated in the 2022 Indo-Pacific Strategy, it has also been preoccupied with conflicts in Ukraine and Israel. This situation demonstrates the extensive scope of the United States’ global commitments and highlights the necessity for it to operate effectively across multiple regions concurrently. On the other hand, the United States’ engagement in other global conflicts has raised concerns about its ability to adequately focus on the Indo-Pacific region. Blinken’s visit to Asia provides a crucial opportunity for the U.S. to reaffirm its strategic priorities in the Indo-Pacific and to reassure its allies in the region.
During his Asia tour, Blinken is expected to emphasize the significance of the United States’ initiatives to enhance security and prosperity with its allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific, as well as to articulate the vision of a free and open region.
From July 26 to 27, 2024, Blinken attended the annual ASEAN-U.S. Post Ministerial Conference, the 14th East Asia Summit Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, and the 31st ASEAN Regional Forum Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Laos.[ii] These meetings are pivotal for Blinken to underscore the United States’ central commitment to ASEAN and its support for ASEAN’s Indo-Pacific Outlook. This emphasis highlights the shared fundamental principles between the United States’ Indo-Pacific Strategy and ASEAN’s Indo-Pacific Outlook.
Both strategies share similar objectives concerning regional security, economic cooperation, and the rule of international law. Blinken’s articulation of these messages will serve as an indication of the United States’ efforts to reinforce its diplomatic and strategic presence in the region. In this context, Blinken’s statements can be seen as an endeavor to maintain the U.S.’s leadership role in the Indo-Pacific and to develop policies that align with ASEAN.
It is anticipated that Blinken will address several critical issues during these meetings, including economic cooperation, the fight against global climate change, crisis in Myanmar, importance of adherence to international law in the South China Sea, and Russia’s illegal war against Ukraine. ASEAN countries contend that the violence in Myanmar directly impacts regional peace and stability, believing that this issue should be prioritized on the agenda. Cooperation with neighboring countries such as China, India, and Thailand is essential for resolving the problems in Myanmar. In this context, the participation of China and India in the ASEAN meetings is intended to strengthen regional cooperation.
On July 28, 2024, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd James Austin accompanied Blinken in a meeting with Japan’s Minister for Foreign Affairs Kamikawa Yoko and Minister of Defense Kihara Minoru as part of the Foreign and Defense Ministers’ (2+2) Dialogue in Tokyo.[iii] The discussions underscored the significance of the U.S.-Japan alliance in addressing bilateral, regional, and global issues. The sustained support for trilateral cooperation between the U.S.-Japan-South Korea and U.S.-Japan-Philippines can be viewed as a strategic measure to bolster military deterrence in the region, thereby forming a strong defense line against potential aggressions.
Additionally, a ministerial meeting on extended deterrence was held. This meeting outlined a framework for enhancing bilateral cooperation to bolster the U.S. extended deterrence strategy, supported by Japan’s defense capabilities. In this context, it is aimed to enhance strategic deterrence, preserve regional security balances, and establish a more effective defense mechanism against potential threats.
It is worth recalling that during Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s visit to the White House on April 10, 2024, the two countries updated their military security alliances. According to this update, Japan intends to appoint a four-star U.S. commander to head a new Japanese headquarters overseeing all military operations from 2025 onwards. These visits are crucial for discussing the roles, missions, and capabilities related to the planned command and control structures in Japan and for determining how the alliance will address these challenges.
Following their visit to Japan, Secretary of State Blinken and Secretary of Defense Austin will conduct a 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue in Manila with Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo and Philippine Secretary of National Defense Gilberto Teodoro.[iv] In this meeting, both countries are expected to reaffirm their vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific region and their commitment to international law. Additionally, they will engage in comprehensive discussions to deepen coordination on mutual challenges in the South China Sea and to advance the bilateral economic agenda.
During Blinken’s visit to Vietnam, he is expected to offer condolences to the family of the late Nguyễn Phú Trọng, the chairman of the ruling Communist Party, and extend his sympathies to the Vietnamese people. In his meetings with government officials in Hanoi, he is anticipated to emphasize the strength of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between the two countries. This visit can be seen as a significant diplomatic step that underscores the deep cooperation and mutual respect in U.S.-Vietnam relations.
U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell has described Vietnam as the “swing state” of the Indo-Pacific, comparing this situation to the critical battleground states in U.S. presidential elections.[v] Just as these states will determine the next American leader in November, Vietnam’s support is considered a significant factor in the U.S.-China competition in the Indo-Pacific.[vi] Therefore, Vietnam’s position plays a critical role in shaping the balance of power in the region. In this context, Blinken aims to further strengthen the strategic partnership between the two countries through his engagements with Vietnam’s political leadership.
Blinken will subsequently meet with Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong, and Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan in Singapore to evaluate the progress of bilateral cooperation on shared goals in the areas of security, economy, climate, and technology. This meeting is of critical importance for strengthening cooperation with Singapore, a key partner in regional security and economic development. The increasing bilateral discussions on emerging technologies underscore the importance of the U.S.-Singapore strategic partnership in promoting a free, open, connected, prosperous, secure, and resilient Indo-Pacific region.
As is well known, Singapore is a strategic actor in regional and global diplomacy. As an ASEAN member, Singapore develops policies that promote regional integration and cooperation. Through its relationship with Singapore, the United States can establish stronger ties with ASEAN and play a more active role in regional diplomatic initiatives. This strategic partnership between the U.S. and Singapore can serve as a model for other countries in the region, significantly contributing to the strengthening of international cooperation and technological innovation.
Lastly, during the visit to Mongolia, Blinken is scheduled to meet with senior Mongolian officials to reaffirm the importance of the U.S.-Mongolia Strategic Partnership. In the course of this visit, Blinken is expected to reiterate the United States’ commitment to Mongolia as a “Third Neighbor.” As is known, Mongolia is geographically surrounded by two large neighboring countries, Russia and China. Mongolia’s “Third Neighbor” policy aims to strengthen its relations with countries other than these two, particularly democratic and developed nations such as the United States, Japan, South Korea, India, and the European Union. This strategy seeks to provide Mongolia with diversity and balance in economic, political, and security realms. Through this, Mongolia aims to play a more active role on the international stage and to bolster its independence.
Blinken’s engagements during his visit to Asia clearly demonstrate the United States’ unwavering commitment to its Indo-Pacific allies and partners. When examining the countries visited and the issues addressed, it is evident that cooperation on Indo-Pacific regional security is at the forefront. Blinken’s visit holds critical importance for ensuring regional stability, strengthening economic collaborations, and supporting international law. Additionally, this visit reinforces the U.S.’s regional leadership aspirations, reaffirming the solid foundations of its strategic partnerships in the Indo-Pacific.
Considering the uncertainty created by the upcoming U.S. presidential elections in November and President Biden’s withdrawal from the race, Blinken’s visit to Asia reflects America’s full commitment to the Indo-Pacific region and its efforts to reassure its partnerships.
[i] “Secretary Blinken’s Travel to Laos, Vietnam, Japan, the Philippines, Singapore, and Mongolia”, U.S. Department of State, https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-travel-to-vietnam-laos-japan-the-philippines-singapore-and-mongolia/, (Date of Access: 25.07.2024).
[ii] Ibid.
[iii] “Secretary Blinken’s Travel to Laos, Vietnam, Japan, the Philippines, Singapore, and Mongolia”, U.S. Department of State, https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-travel-to-vietnam-laos-japan-the-philippines-singapore-and-mongolia/, (Date of Access: 25.07.2024).
[iv] “Blinken`s 6-country Asia tour tos how U.S. is ‘all in’ on region”, NIKKEI Asia, https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Indo-Pacific/Blinken-s-6-country-Asia-tour-to-show-U.S.-is-all-in-on-region, (Date of Access: 25.07.2024).
[v] Ibid.
[vi] Ibid.
