After the Cold War, many European countries transitioned from mandatory conscription to professional armies, and in light of the Russia-Ukraine War, these countries have revisited the topic. Germany leads this shift, while Denmark plans to extend compulsory military service to women starting in 2026, in addition to mandatory service for men aged 18 and over. [1] Among the Baltic countries most affected by the war, Latvia has reinstated mandatory military service in 2023 after a 16-year hiatus, requiring all men aged 18 to 27 to serve for 11 months.
Apart from compulsory conscription, another significant issue facing Western countries is the decline in applications for professional military service, with the naval forces being particularly impacted. For example, the German Minister of Defense stated in June 2023 that the number of applications to the German Armed Forces had decreased after the COVID-19 pandemic, and there was a shortage of qualified personnel. As part of the goal to increase the number of military personnel in the German Armed Forces, recruitment advertisements were issued, including in Turkish, with the phrase “Become part of our Navy.” [2]
In the United Kingdom, another country experiencing difficulty in recruiting professional sailors, First Sea Lord Admiral Sir Ben Kay expressed that the Navy was struggling to meet expectations for new recruits to connect with friends and family. He also noted a declining interest in submarine service. [3] According to another report, the Royal Navy/Marines’ workforce shrank by 4.1% between July 2022 and July 2023, a decline that is expected to create problems in fulfilling even the Navy’s basic missions. [4]
The United States stands out as the country facing the most significant challenges in this area. [5] In 2023, the Navy aimed to recruit 37,700 personnel but only achieved 30,236. A document detailing the “U.S. Navy’s Navigation Plan,” also known as “Project 33” (referring to the 33rd Force Commander), outlines seven key areas[6] for improvement and development by 2027, particularly in light of a potential conflict with China. One of the primary objectives is “recruitment and retention of personnel to maintain a greater presence in operational theaters, especially in the Pacific.” [7] This document highlighted a personnel shortfall of 22,000 as of the beginning of 2024.
RAND Corporation experts, in addressing the personnel shortage, have warned that if the situation continues, the Navy may face challenges in assigning ships, providing coastal support, and could encounter significant structural issues. The Navy’s Personnel Chief Admiral has proposed reforms, including eliminating the requirement for a high school diploma, raising the enlistment age from 39 to 41, increasing recruitment bonuses, and covering prior university tuition fees. However, experts have criticized the lowering of personnel standards as a solution. [8]
Additionally, rising obesity rates[9] and a perceived decline in patriotism among the “Generation Z” (those born after 2000) have emerged as further challenges. [10] To engage this generation, both the UK and the US have launched digital campaigns and advertisements targeting youth.
In conclusion, the significant decline in naval recruitment in Western countries, especially in the US and the UK, can be attributed not only to the characteristics of Generation Z but also to the increasing crime rates among young people. Measures to address the issue include attention-grabbing advertising campaigns, increased financial incentives, and, in the US, policies to make higher education more accessible. Given the long-term nature of the problem, it is expected that personnel shortages will continue to be a significant issue, particularly in scenarios involving potential conflicts, such as the highly discussed possibility of military engagement between the US and China, particularly over Taiwan in the South China Sea.
[1] Dénes, A., “Conscription is coming back to Europe, but which EU countries have re-introduced compulsory military service?”, Remix, https://rmx.news/article/conscription-is-coming-back-to-europe-but-which-eu-countries-have-re-introduced-compulsory-military-service/#:~:text=Military%20service%20is%20compulsory%20in,service%20is%20voluntary%20for%20women, (Date Accession: 22.09.2024).
[2] “Alman ordusundan Türkçe personel ilanı: Donanmamızın bir parçası ol”, En Son Haber, https://www.ensonhaber.com/gundem/alman-ordusundan-turkce-personel-ilani-donanmamizin-bir-parcasi-ol#google_vignette, (Date Accession: 22.09.2024).
[3] Montgomery, S., “Navy struggling to attract new recruits as Gen Z not prepared to sacrifice contact with friends and family”, GB News, https://www.gbnews.com/news/navy-news-recruitment-generation-z, (Date Accession: 23.09.2024).
[4] Royal Navy failing to get enough recruits into basic training, Navy Lookout, https://www.navylookout.com/royal-navy-failing-to-get-enough-recruits-into-basic-training/, (Date Accession: 23.09.2024).
[5] Mongilio, H., “Navy Misses All Recruiting Goals in FY 2023, Raises Goals for FY 2024”, USNI News, https://news.usni.org/2023/10/11/navy-misses-all-recruiting-goals-in-fy-2023-raises-goals-for-fy-2024, (Date Accession 24.09.2024).
[6] Preventing delays in the periodic maintenance of surface ships, submarines, and [naval] aviation vehicles, emphasizing robotic and autonomous systems to rapidly integrate more platforms, establishing command centers needed by fleets in a dispersed battlefield, employing the required personnel strength, providing service quality to [Naval Forces] personnel commensurate with their sacrifices, preparing for combat in real conditions and virtually, and improving critical infrastructure needed for combat and operations.
[7] U.S. Naval Institute Staff , “CNO Franchetti’s New Navy Navigation Plan” , USNI News, https://news.usni.org/2024/09/18/cno-franchettis-new-navy-navigation-plan, (Date Accession 24.09.2024).
[8] Stancy, D., “Inside the Navy’s quest to fix its recruiting crisis”, Navy Times, https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2024/02/21/inside-the-navys-quest-to-fix-its-recruiting-crisis/, (Date Accession 24.09.2024).
[9] In a study conducted by the U.S. Department of Defense, the percentage of young adults aged 17-24 who are eligible to join the military was 29% in 2016, but this rate dropped to 23% in 2020. The criteria sought for eligibility include physical condition, educational status, criminal record, etc., and the study states that at least one in three young adults is overweight and therefore ineligible to serve in the U.S. military.
[10] Schlott, R., “Military faces recruitment crisis thanks to ‘unpatriotic’ Gen Z, obesity, therapy ban”, US News, https://nypost.com/2023/09/07/military-faces-recruitment-crisis-as-unpatriotic-gen-z-fails-to-join-up/, (Date Accession 25.09.2024).
