Faced with nationwide anti-government protests, Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned and left the country in a military helicopter on Monday, August 5, 2024, the parliament was dissolved and President Muhammad Shahabuddin appointed Muhammad Yunus to form the interim government. Hasina, in office since 2009, left the country and went to New Delhi after intense protests, leaving a power vacuum and public unrest in the country, raising questions about the future of Bangladesh’s domestic and foreign policy.
Hasina declared a curfew to quell the protests before leaving office, but the Prime Minister had to resign due to the reluctance of the Bangladesh Army to fulfill this decision and the growing protests.[i] The nationwide curfew was imposed after at least 91 people were killed and hundreds injured in clashes across the country on Sunday, August 4, 2024. The spread of protests and the deaths of at least 241 people made it difficult for the Bangladesh Army to defend Hasina at all costs, and ultimately a change of power became inevitable.
The 84-year-old Muhammad Yunus, who has been appointed to form the interim government until new elections are held in the country, is a Nobel Peace Prize-winning social entrepreneur and banker who has long criticized the Hasina administration. In this process, it is very important that the power vacuum in domestic politics is quickly filled by the interim government. This is because it has also raised concerns whether the Bangladesh Army will step in to fill this leadership vacuum. Therefore, the interim government has a long and complicated road ahead to restore authority in the country. The first challenge will be to restore public order, security and stability after the violent protests.
Another important task will be to ensure free and fair elections. For many years, the most important expectation and demand of the people from the government has been democratization, fundamental rights and freedoms. The interim government will also struggle to prevent the protests, in which nearly 300 people were killed, from escalating, to deal with the possible consequences and to prevent further violence. In this respect, the interim government or the newly elected government will also be under pressure to investigate the officials involved in the violence and to carry out the necessary judicial procedures. It may also be challenged to manage the country’s economy, prevent corruption and undertake reforms until internal calm is restored.
In addition to domestic challenges, Bangladesh is also facing a geopolitical squeeze in its foreign policy and is now entering a period of intense struggle to sustain its economic growth, strengthen its international trade and investment relations, and ultimately regain stability. As a matter of fact, Bangladesh is a major player in key exports, especially in the textile and clothing sectors, and therefore maintaining foreign trade agreements and economic partnerships is of great importance for global investors.
Seeking to establish good relations with neighboring countries in South Asia, Bangladesh is an important balancing actor, especially between India and China. In this context, it is crucial for Bangladesh to focus on security cooperation with neighboring states to ensure border security and support regional stability. The country needs regional cooperation to combat the activities of various militant groups along the border.
Bangladesh’s ties with India play a critical role, especially in managing relations with Myanmar. In this respect, relations with India constitute a counterweight to regional security and stability. On the other hand, Bangladesh is determined to develop economic and strategic relations with China. China’s role in Myanmar’s internal stability and security also contributes to Bangladesh’s interests. More importantly, it can be emphasized that Bangladesh has a strategic importance in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Therefore, it is expected that China will continue its constructive support to ensure and maintain political stability in Bangladesh.
It can be said that regional and global actors, especially India, China and Japan, attach great importance to Bangladesh’s internal stability, especially in order to protect their commercial interests and maintain their investments in the Bay of Bengal coast. Indeed, the security of maritime trade through Bangladesh also concerns the interests of global powers.
The political transition in Bangladesh may also shape the future of global politics. The continuation of the civil war in Myanmar carries the danger of spillover of crises in South Asia. In this regard, it is crucial that regional actors, especially India and China, build relations based on mutual respect and sovereign equality and contribute to Bangladesh’s peace, security and stability.
In conclusion, it should be emphasized that Bangladesh, which is going through a political transition, plays a critical role in the regional and global balance of power. It is crucial for Asian actors to remain vigilant, especially against foreign intervention, given that Western powers may transfer crises to other regions. In this respect, it can be argued that Bangladesh has a strong and robust state future-experience.
[i] “Exclusive: Bangladesh army refused to suppress protest, sealing Hasina’s fate”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/bangladesh-army-refused-suppress-protest-sealing-hasinas-fate-2024-08-07/, (Date of Acess: 08.08.2024).
