On August 5, 2024, Sheikh Hasina’s fifteen-year rule in Bangladesh fell after massive and bloody student uprisings demanding quota reforms. This was an important turning point in Bangladesh’s political history and an interim government was formed to replace the ousted government. After the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government, the interim government in Bangladesh was headed by Muhammad Yunus, a Nobel laureate in 2006 and a consistent critic of Sheikh Hasina’s government. Muhammad Yunus is known as the pioneer of microcredit and co-founder of the Grameen Bank. This bank focuses on microcredit and provides collateral-free microloans to the needy.
The interim government has an important mission to ensure the political stability of the country and a return to the democratic process. It is responsible for carrying out fundamental reforms of the institutions and leading the country to elections. On the hundredth day of the interim government’s rule, Muhammad Yunus promised that elections will be held after the completion of the necessary and essential reforms and asked people to be patient. The interim government is trying to build a consensus with other parties, restructure democratic institutions and rebuild the system “point by point, sector by sector”. The objective is set to build a new and lasting electoral system.[1]
However, the government faced serious challenges. A number of problems have emerged, including political unrest, floods, pressure from those seeking to rush to elections and an increase in violence against minorities.
One of the first steps taken by the government under the leadership of Muhammad Yunus was to lift the political ban on the Jamaat-e-Islami Party, which was declared “militant and terrorist” and shut down during the student protests of the Sheikh Hasina government. Yunus’ lifting of the ban on this party was interpreted in some circles as paving the way for radical movements and caused uneasiness. However, Yunus assured that lifting the ban on this party would not pave the way for radical movements and that the influence of radical movements would not expand.
The fate of Awami League has been another issue of debate during the interim government. After Sheikh Hasina’s government was overthrown, senior members of her Awami League party tried to leave the country, their houses were looted and their bank accounts were frozen. On 23 October 2024, the Awami League’s youth organization was shut down by the Muhammad Yunus government on the grounds that it was engaged in terrorist activities. Yunus stated that Awami League no longer had any influence in Bangladesh and described the party as “fascist”. According to Yunus, Awami League poses a threat to democracy and therefore should have no place in the future of the country. Although Yunus commented that Awami League could disband, he declared that the interim government he leads will not take any decision on the party since it is not a political government.[2]
Upon Sheikh Hasina’s departure to India, the interim government filed a criminal complaint against Hasina, and one of the priorities of the government was to bring Hasina back to Bangladesh and bring her to justice. Yunus, however, argued that this process should not be a quick one, but a step-by-step one, and emphasized the need for a careful diplomatic approach in relations with India.
Bangladesh’s difficulties in terms of relations with India are not limited to the issue of Sheikh Hasina’s extradition. The interim government of Bangladesh has sought closer relations with Pakistan. Moreover, in the first hundred days of the interim government, attacks on the Hindu minority in Bangladesh reached two thousands.[3] These attacks were frequently covered in the media and became a major source of tension in relations between India and Bangladesh. Trump also defended the Hindu minority in Bangladesh. With this in mind, the Yunus government aims to improve relations with the United States of America (USA), one of its biggest trading partners.
One of the greatest dangers facing the interim government is the deepening of social fragmetations. The weakening of the Awami League and the re-emergence of Jamaat-e-Islami could pave the way for the rise of radical currents. If these radical currents cannot be controlled, there could be a serious split in the social structure of the country. An even greater danger could arise from a revanchist attitude against the Awami League or by the Awami League. Indeed, when the interim government came to power, the violence between the parties did not stop and this time Awami League supporters were the targets of violence, some of which even resulted in deaths. Many Awami League members went into hiding due to this situation.[4] It can be expected that these attacks on the Awami League will remain in people’s memories. If left unchecked, this could create a crack in society.
In Bangladesh, which has experienced many coups in its history, one of the deep threats facing the interim government is a military takeover. A military coup is possible if the reforms and preparations for elections are not carried out at the required pace, public discontent grows, political uncertainty deepens, or there is an intervention by major countries. Any coup can lead to prolonged instability and political turmoil in Bangladesh. It could also change the geopolitical balance in the region.
Although the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus initially enjoyed broad support, it is not yet clear whether Yunus’s reforms will be successful, given the balance in the country’s current situation. The success of this government, which constitutes a critical turning point for Bangladesh, is of great importance for the future of the country. However, if the interim government faces difficulties in achieving social and international balance and fails to properly implement the reforms and electoral processes, the country may face a deeper crisis.
[1] “Bangladesh’s Yunus seeks time, says election roadmap after reforms”, Al Jazeera, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/11/17/bangladeshs-yunus-seeks-time-says-election-roadmap-after-reforms, (Access Date: 28.11.2024).
[2] “Bangladesh’s leader says ‘no place’ for Sheikh Hasina’s ‘fascist’ party”, Financial Times, https://www.ft.com/content/42e223c9-ade1-46a1-ac95-2c4f807b0c5c, (Access Date: 28.11.2024).
[3] “Bangladesh: 100 days of Muhammad Yunus govt | Reports say Hindus victimised”, India Today, https://www.indiatoday.in/newsmo/video/bangladesh-100-days-of-muhammad-yunus-govt-reports-say-hindus-victimised-2637485-2024-11-22, (Access Date: 28.11.2024).
[4] “Bangladesh’s new outcasts: Students from ex-PM Hasina’s party now in hiding”, Al Jazeera, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/27/once-powerful-student-members-of-hasinas-party-bangladeshs-new-outcastes, (Access Date: 28.11.2024).
