Azerbaijan’s initiation of natural gas exploration activities in the Eastern Mediterranean is considered a strategic move that could reshape regional energy balances[1]. The State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR) obtaining an exploration license in Israel’s northern Cluster I field stands as one of the most significant indicators of Baku’s global expansion in the energy sector. This development may have important implications for Europe’s energy security, Turkey-Azerbaijan relations, and competition in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Thanks to the Southern Gas Corridor, which stretches from the Caspian Sea to Europe, Azerbaijan plays a key role in the continent’s energy supply security and now aims to become an active player in the Eastern Mediterranean as well. Israel granting SOCAR an exploration license indicates the expansion of energy cooperation between the two countries and aligns with Europe’s strategy of seeking alternative sources to reduce its dependence on Russian gas.
There are multiple reasons behind Azerbaijan’s pivot to the Eastern Mediterranean. Firstly, SOCAR has long aimed to become a global energy company by investing in projects beyond the Caspian region. Although energy resources in the Caspian Sea remain a critical source of revenue for Azerbaijan’s economy, relying solely on this region is insufficient for SOCAR’s long-term goal of becoming a global player. Accordingly, SOCAR’s cooperation with Israel and its entry into the Eastern Mediterranean is part of its strategy to enhance its influence in international energy markets. Moreover, Europe’s efforts to secure energy supply have encouraged Azerbaijan to take bold steps toward developing new reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Following the Ukraine War, the European Union has sought alternative suppliers to reduce its dependence on Russian gas, and Azerbaijan has emerged as an important partner in this process. Through the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) and the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), Azerbaijan supplies gas to Europe via the Southern Gas Corridor and could further strengthen this position by utilizing reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean. SOCAR’s partnership with Israel also increases the possibility of new collaborations to deliver Eastern Mediterranean gas to Europe.
There are economic, technical, and strategic reasons behind Israel’s decision to grant SOCAR an exploration license in the Cluster I field. Although Israel possesses major gas fields such as Leviathan and Tamar, it needs international partners to discover and develop new reserves. SOCAR’s experience in the Caspian Sea and its track record in large-scale projects have made it an attractive partner for Israel. Israel also seeks to access new markets to boost energy exports, and SOCAR’s infrastructure in Europe (TANAP, TAP, and other energy projects) could accelerate this process. Furthermore, the development of political relations between Azerbaijan and Israel has paved the way for SOCAR’s energy investments in Israel.
Azerbaijan has long been a significant oil supplier to Israel, and energy cooperation between the two countries carries not only commercial but also strategic dimensions. Israel’s collaboration with SOCAR can be seen as part of its strategy to diversify energy diplomacy by involving a non-regional actor in Eastern Mediterranean energy projects. However, it remains unclear to what extent this cooperation will reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian gas.
While natural gas projects between Azerbaijan and Israel could provide a significant alternative for Europe’s energy security, it seems unlikely to create major changes in the short term. The main reason for this is the lack of fully developed infrastructure to transport Eastern Mediterranean gas to Europe. Although Israel is attempting to export its gas via liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals, the high cost of this method could reduce the competitiveness of the gas.[2]
On the other hand, SOCAR’s cooperation with Israel could bring new options to the table, such as transporting Eastern Mediterranean gas to Europe through Azerbaijan in the future. SOCAR’s success in the Eastern Mediterranean will depend on both the technical exploration process and political developments in the region. If SOCAR discovers commercially viable gas reserves in the Cluster I field, larger projects with Israel may follow. How Turkey will be affected by this process will depend on the route through which SOCAR’s extracted gas is transported to Europe. If Israeli gas passes through Turkey, it could present an economic opportunity for Ankara. However, if Israel prefers to export the gas via LNG, Turkey may not gain directly from the process.
In conclusion, Azerbaijan’s initiation of natural gas exploration activities in the Eastern Mediterranean is a significant step that could impact the regional energy competition. The agreement between SOCAR and Israel expands Azerbaijan’s role in the global energy market and may also help increase Europe’s energy diversity. However, it appears unlikely that this cooperation will significantly reduce dependence on Russian gas in the short term. Turkey’s gains from this process will depend on whether it plays a role as a transit country in the transportation of SOCAR’s gas to Europe. If alternative routes are used, different scenarios in Ankara’s energy policies may come into play.
[1] “Azerbaijan Steps into Eastern Mediterranean Gas Arena”, News.az, https://news.az/news/azerbaijan-steps-into-eastern-mediterranean-gas-arena, (Access Date: 21.03.2025).
[2] “Israel Explores Diversifying Natural Gas Exports with LNG Facility”, Natural Gas Intelligence, https://naturalgasintel.com/news/israel-explores-diversifying-natural-gas-exports-with-lng-facility/, (Access Date: 21.03.2025).
