Austria, which does not play a significant role within the European Union (EU), is one of the few European countries that is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). This state of neutrality has allowed Austria to develop a unique approach to its foreign relations. Since the end of World War II, and especially following the Neutrality Declaration of 1955, Austria has experienced significant political stability. Traditionally, Austrian politics has been dominated by two major parties: the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) and the Social Democratic Party (SPÖ). However, in recent years, the rise of parties such as the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ), the Greens (GRÜNE), and NEOS has increased political diversity.[i] This change indicates a more competitive political environment, as seen in the current coalition government formed by the ÖVP and the Greens.
Austria will hold legislative elections on September 29, 2024, to select members of the 28th National Council, the lower house of the bicameral Austrian parliament. These elections represent a critical turning point for the EU in terms of security and fundamental values. The far-right Freedom Party of Austria continues to show a steady rise, raising concerns about the future of the rule of law in the country and political stability in Europe. The presence of anti-EU and pro-Russian governments, such as those in Hungary and Slovakia, creates a situation that threatens the unity and security of the EU.
Recent polls indicate that the Freedom Party of Austria has reached around 27% in voter support, a significant increase from its 16.2% in 2019. Meanwhile, the ÖVP, its former coalition partner, has dropped to 24%, the SPÖ stands at 21%, the Greens at 9%, and NEOS at 11%.[ii] The FPÖ’s lead increases the likelihood of forming a far-right coalition government, which could mean the appointment of a chancellor from the FPÖ.
The FPÖ also gained attention due to the Ibiza scandal that erupted in 2019.[iii] This scandal began with the emergence of a video in which FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache allegedly offered assistance in public procurement processes in exchange for increasing the party’s influence to a person claiming to represent the Russian government. This incident raised serious concerns about FPÖ’s relationships with Russia. Since the mid-2000s, the party has developed close ties with the Putin regime. The FPÖ has organized various events expressing loyalty and friendship toward Russia and opposed the sanctions imposed by the EU on Russia. In 2016, a cooperation agreement was signed between the FPÖ and Putin’s party, “United Russia.” [iv] During Herbert Kickl’s tenure as Internal Affairs Minister, he attempted to control Austria’s intelligence service (BVT), leading to the loss of important documents and concerns that these documents might have fallen into Russian hands. An article in the Financial Times dated July 14, 2023, suggested that Austria had become a hub for Russian espionage.[v]
If the FPÖ wins the elections on September 29, this could pose a significant threat to the rule of law in Austria and the integrity of the EU. FPÖ leader Kickl has expressed a desire to implement Orbán’s program. Orbán’s electoral law reforms and control over the media could pave the way for a similar authoritarian regime in Austria. The electoral law reforms implemented by Orbán have reduced the number of legislative bodies in Hungary and established control over the media. As a result, press freedom has been severely restricted, and the independence of the judiciary has been weakened. If the FPÖ adopts a similar approach, pressures on the media and civil society organizations could increase. Additionally, FPÖ’s perception of the Russia-Ukraine War as a struggle between conflicting parties could negatively affect Austria’s foreign policy.
The FPÖ’s opposition to Europe’s migration policies could lead to practices that promote human rights violations and discrimination. A coalition government led by the FPÖ could weaken the EU’s foreign policy. Furthermore, the FPÖ’s criticism of Brussels’ sanctions against Russia and emphasis on the impacts of the energy crisis could strengthen anti-democratic tendencies within the EU.
The Austrian public is currently focused on issues such as high living costs and stricter immigration rules. The FPÖ supports the repatriation of criminal immigrants under its “Austria First” agenda. A coalition between the FPÖ and the ÖVP could pave the way for tax cuts, while a more centrist coalition could accelerate the transition to independence from Russian gas.
In conclusion, Austria’s elections on September 29, 2024, represent a critical turning point that could affect not only the country’s political future but also the integrity of the EU. The rise of the FPÖ to power could be a decisive factor for the future of both Austria and the EU. The ascendance of the far-right Freedom Party of Austria poses serious threats to the rule of law and democratic norms. The FPÖ’s intention to follow Orbán’s policies could increase pressures on media freedom, judicial independence, and civil society. Furthermore, shifts may occur in Europe’s migration policies and relations with Russia.
It is vital for mainstream parties to form a broad coalition to keep the FPÖ from power, in order to preserve Austria’s democratic values and maintain the unity of the EU. The election results could reshape Austria’s internal politics and change the political landscape of Europe. Therefore, this election, which is a critical threshold for Austria’s future and the resilience of the EU, will be closely monitored.
[i] Nikita Triandafillidis, “Kaleidoscopic Elections In Austria: A New Parliament, a New Europe?”, Modern Diplomacy, https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2024/09/17/kaleidoscopic-elections-in-austria-a-new-parliament-a-new-europe/, (Accessed: 20.09.2024).
[ii] “What’s at stake in Austrian parliamentary election?”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/whats-stake-austrian-parliamentary-election-2024-09-19/, (Accessed: 20.09.2024).
[iii] Theodoros Benakis, “Why Austrian general elections are critical for Europe”, European Interest, https://www.europeaninterest.eu/why-austrian-general-elections-are-critical-for-europe/, (Accessed: 20.09.2024).
[iv] Ibid.
[v] Ibid.
