The European Union (EU) is concerned about the possibility of Trump returning to presidency, halting aid to Ukraine and a new “trade war.” Because of this possible scenario, the EU has already begun making preparations.
Trump’s return to the presidency after winning the elections on November 5, 2024 has raised various security and foreign policy concerns for the EU. This concern of the EU stems from the problems experienced during Trump’s presidency in 2017-2021. Because during the first term of his presidency, Trump described the EU as a “hellhole” and described it as “anti-US” and especially “a commercial enemy”. In this context, Trump has halted negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Agreement (TTIP), which envisages the removal of trade barriers between the US and the EU across economic sectors. In addition, during his first term as president, Trump has questioned NATO’s existence by announcing that he would encourage Russia to attack member states that owe money to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and fail to pay. In light of these facts, Trump’s victory in the presidential election held on November 5, 2024, has increased concerns in EU countries.
In his second election campaign, Trump criticized EU countries for not fulfilling their financial responsibilities within NATO and stated that he could withdraw the US from NATO, which he described as “no longer functional” when he was re-elected as president. Trump also described Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as “the greatest salesman in history” and claimed that he would end the Russia-Ukraine War in a short time. These statements indicate that if Trump is elected, he could end the billions of dollars of military support the US provides to Ukraine.
Trump’s statements and the EU’s concerns have forced the Union to take certain measures. Trump’s past criticism of the financial and military aid provided by the US to Ukraine and his questioning of the long-term benefits of this support in terms of the interests of the American people pose significant risks to the sustainability of the EU’s support for Ukraine and the security of the European continent. As is known, the US has been one of the largest providers of military and financial support to Ukraine. If the aid is cut, the EU will need to increase its support for Ukraine.
Since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine War, the EU and its member states have provided military aid to Ukraine worth 33 billion euros. With the US withdrawing its support from Ukraine under Trump, this figure is expected to increase even more. However, there is no full harmony among EU countries regarding burden sharing in this regard. While some countries are unwilling to provide more aid and find limited aid sufficient, others do not want to increase aid and take a greater risk. For example, Hungary is the country with the most open reservations about arms aid and sanctions to Ukraine. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has distanced himself from the EU’s economic sanctions against Russia and military support to Ukraine. Hungary has abstained from decisions about support due to its desire to maintain energy ties with Russia and economic concerns.
Bulgaria, which had a reserved approach to providing military support at the beginning of the war, initially hesitated to support Ukraine due to political internal conflicts and its energy ties with Russia. However, it has recently agreed to provide limited support. Austria, which is not a NATO member but maintains a policy of neutrality within the EU, has refrained from providing arms support to Ukraine, instead providing limited humanitarian aid and diplomatic support. Austria is inclined to provide indirect support to the war due to its trade relations with Russia and its commitment to neutrality. In particular, the limitations in the EU’s defense budgets and the economic imbalances among some members make it difficult for Europe to fully provide aid.
Trump’s questioning of NATO’s commitment and his past rhetoric about reducing the US’s role in the European security architecture have the potential to create a serious security gap for Europe. NATO’s goal of establishing a deterrent force against Russia on its eastern flank will be difficult without US support. In this case, the EU may have to take more serious steps to strengthen its own defense capabilities, and the concept of “strategic autonomy” may come back to the agenda. However, there are also different views on this issue among EU countries. Trump’s tendency to establish closer relations with Russia is causing concern in Europe. Trump has expressed his relations with Putin in positive terms in the past and expressed his desire to establish a more pragmatic dialogue with Russia. This situation makes it difficult for the EU to take a common stance against Russia and may cause European countries to reshape their own security policies. Russia’s strengthened position against a Ukraine that has lost the support of the US under Trump could present the EU with a challenging situation in terms of both security and diplomacy.
Trump’s scenario of cutting aid to Ukraine could lead to divisions within the EU. Eastern European countries in particular may advocate a tougher stance against the “Russian threat,” while Western European countries may tend to seek diplomatic solutions. This will complicate efforts to ensure policy coherence within the EU and test the union’s internal solidarity. In this scenario, the EU will be forced to develop a common strategy on Ukraine, preventing divisions. Furthermore, the reshaping of relations with Russia will directly affect the EU’s energy policies and energy security. If relations with Russia ease under Trump’s presidency, some European countries may reconsider re-engaging with Russia on energy. This could further highlight the different approaches to energy independence and security within the EU. At the same time, cutting off US aid to Ukraine could force Europe to increase its own defense spending, which could put additional pressure on European economies.
As a result, the EU will have to reconsider its strategy of supporting Ukraine during Trump’s new presidency. The EU needs to take on a greater role in supporting Ukraine and strengthen its own security architecture. In addition, possible changes in US policy towards Ukraine will increase the difficulties of strategic alignment within the EU and make regional differences more apparent. In this process, the EU will need to develop an effective diplomatic strategy that will both maintain internal solidarity and provide balance between Russia and Ukraine.
