Hungary is located at a significant crossroads in Central Europe, important in terms of travel routes between the east and the west. After gaining full independence following a Cold War marked by heavy Soviet pressure, the country came under the umbrella of the European Union (EU) during the 2004 enlargement. Since then, Hungary has been one of the most debated states within this supranational organization.[i]
Following Hungary’s assumption of the European Union Council Presidency, which rotates every six months, on July 1, 2024, Prime Minister Viktor Orban visited Kyiv first, then Moscow, and Beijing. It is a noteworthy development that the Hungarian government, under EU sanctions, visited Moscow, displayed the European Union flag in Kyiv, and used the Hungarian Presidential Logo in Beijing.[ii] Orban claimed that he made these visits to establish peace and that Hungary is the only state capable of talking with all the involved parties.
Hungary, which has been criticized since 2018 for acting against democracy and the rule of law, holding the EU Council Presidency is considered unacceptable by many European actors.[iii] Having been deprived of nearly 20 billion euros in funding, Hungary has twice failed to pay the 200 million euro fine imposed by the European Court of Justice, even after its monthly deadlines passed. The European Commission has stated that if this fine is not paid, the amount will be deducted from Hungary’s share of the funds. In parallel, the country faces a daily fine of 1 million euros for not complying with the European Court of Justice’s decision and failing to lift its restrictions on the right to asylum.[iv]
Hungary disrupts the decision-making mechanism within the EU and causes difficulties in the enlargement process and the budget. The Hungarian government’s opposition to and delay of the €50 million financial aid fund provided by the EU to Ukraine this year is considered the clearest example of this. As a result, at the beginning of 2024, the leaders of the 27 member states held a summit in Brussels solely due to Orban’s stance, and after significant efforts, Hungary was finally convinced.[v]
The aim behind Hungary’s stance is to gain as much as possible from the crisis environment. To give a historical reminder: in the mid-19th century, when Hungarian communities were the region’s largest grain producers, during the events of the 1848 Revolution, they produced just enough grain and goods to sustain themselves due to Vienna’s harsh approaches and their demands for autonomy. In this process, known as “Passive Resistance,” they boycotted the government by stopping tax payments. Another example is from 1903, when the Hungarian Parliament launched an attack by rejecting the empire’s military budget in opposition to the imperial language law, similar to how it is currently blocking the EU’s financial aid to Ukraine. Considering the outdated Habsburg weaponry at the time, this was an important factor contributing to the Austro-Hungarian Empire’s military incompetence in World War I. Indeed, Emperor Franz Joseph first begged the Hungarians, who held a significant number of soldiers in the Imperial Army, and then, in a bluff, granted more voting rights to minorities, only to withdraw them once the Hungarian Parliament approved the budget.[vi]
As in history, the Hungarian government today continues to adopt similar attitudes, and its policies significantly conflict with the principles of the European Union. Since no results have been achieved under the current sanctions, a gradual contraction could even be considered within the EU, which advocates cautious enlargement. However, the Treaty on European Union does not provide a process for canceling a country’s membership. Therefore, this process could either be initiated by the Council inviting Hungary to begin the withdrawal process under Article 50, or it would require a fundamental change in the treaty or laws. [vii] Such a change could also bring positive outcomes for European integration. The decision-making mechanism would accelerate, but the deterrent power for countries could also spark discussions related to EU principles.
In response to Orban’s stance, Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union, which provides for the suspension of a member state’s voting rights in the European Union Council, also stands as a potential measure. Belgium, during its previous presidency, attempted to apply this article against Hungary during its presidency, but no results were achieved. The article was also previously attempted against Poland during the tenure of its former government, but that too was unsuccessful. These examples highlight the weakness of Article 7. [viii]
Lastly, Hungary’s ability to assert its own demands at such a level in matters beyond its capacity within a supranational organization reflects the skill of the country’s politicians and the solid foundation of its political culture. However, if this approach is pushed further, it could lead to isolation. Therefore, this political mastery should be carefully evaluated and critiqued. Perhaps there is a dream of a federal structure within the European Union, achieved through regional integration.
Therefore, adopting a collective approach beyond individual national interests aligns with this ideal. However, as mentioned, the political cultures of many member states, particularly Hungary, are in significant conflict with this ideal. Ultimately, no country can be blamed simply for defending its own interests and seeking to gain advantages. In this regard, the same conditions apply to Hungary, which pursues a consciously strategic rise in its relations with other states, as Machiavelli described, and this is both valid and necessary.[ix]
[i] “European Union: “Hungary”, Directorate-General for Communication”, https://european-union.europa.eu/principles-countries-history/eu-countries/hungary_en, (Date of Access: 22.10.2024).
[ii] Rij, Armida (2024), “Orban is using Hungary’s EU Council presidency to bulldoze EU norms”, Chatham House, https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/07/orban-using-hungarys-eu-council-presidency-bulldoze-eu-norms, (Date of Access: 22.10.2024).
[iii] Viner, Katharine (2024), “Outrage as Hungary presides over EU talks on democratic standards”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/24/outrage-as-hungary-presides-over-eu-meeting-on-democratic-standards, (Date of Access: 22.10.2024).
[iv] Liboreiro, Jorge (2024), “Brussels moves to deduct €200 million fine from Hungary’s EU funds, as country refuses to pay up”, Europe News, https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/09/18/brussels-moves-to-deduct-200-million-fine-from-hungarys-eu-funds-as-country-refuses-to-pay, (Date of Access: 22.10.2024).
[v] Beardsley, Eleanor (2024), “European Union approves $54 billion aid for Ukraine as Hungary drops opposition”, NPR, https://www.npr.org/2024/02/01/1228316748/eu-ukraine-aid-hungary-orban, (Date of Access: 22.10.2024).
[vi] Gruyter, Caroline, (2024), “The Habsburg Solution for Viktor Orban”, Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/01/31/europe-hungary-orban-ukraine-habsburg/, (Date of Access: 22.10.2024).
[vii] Downes, James & Trillo-Figueroa, Sebastian, “Does Hungary still belong in the European Union”, The Loop: ECPR’s Political Science Blog, https://theloop.ecpr.eu/does-hungary-still-belong-in-the-european-union/, (Date of Access: 22.10.2024).
[viii] Ibid.
[ix] Arslanel, Nazan & Eryücel, Ertuğrul (2011), “Philosophical Foundations of the Modern State Concept”, Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 2011, 15 (2): 1-20.
