Donald Trump was elected the 47th President of the United States of America (USA) on November 5, with a decisive victory over Kamala Harris in the Presidential election. This election caused great repercussions, especially in Europe. The future of the international system is being debated again.[1]
His tendency to question the current US position in the international arena and his criticism of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) show that Trump is a revisionist. In addition, Trump’s nationalist approaches and his “America First” motto reveal his isolationist identity. His statement that Taiwan must pay before it can receive defense support and his criticism of the funds provided to Ukraine by both himself and the public are clear reflections of these political schools. It is also claimed that Trump will withdraw American troops from Syria, whose lives are under threat.
One of the most questionable issues is the future of the Russian-Ukrainian war in Europe. This war has led to a debate on NATO’s competence. With the arrival of Trump, it seems inevitable that these debates will flare up. The West and NATO have clearly failed on the Black Sea, and day by day, the West is being overburdened. In his 2014 article criticizing the foreign policy of the pre-Trump administration, Henry Kissinger foresaw what is happening in Ukraine and criticized NATO’s eastern expansionism.[2]What happened first in Georgia and then in Ukraine vindicates these sentiments.
The 19th century British Empire’s policy on the Black Sea is similar to NATO’s post-Cold War policy in the region. This is one of the factors that could trigger Russian aggravation. This justifies Trump’s criticism of the West’s stance in this conflict and his belief that NATO, whose founding purpose was to prevent the spread of communism, is now pointless.
European states, fearing Russian aggression, are under the NATO security umbrella. However, Trump’s critical approach to NATO and his protectionist stance under the motto “America First” raise questions about the future of American bases in many parts of the world, especially in Europe.
In 2014, following Russia’s annexation of Crimea, a rule was introduced in NATO that countries should allocate 2% of their national income for defense. Following this rule, the US has become more skeptical of NATO countries. Although Poland is currently at the highest point at 4.1%, the majority of member states are below 2%. Trump expects countries to reach at least 3%. This demand creates serious problems and debates in EU countries.
In the immediate aftermath of the US elections, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed Finance Minister Christian Lindner, leading to the collapse of his coalition of three, which had been at odds over the defense budget.[3] Trump’s election could have other jarring effects on Europe.
A week before the election, Trump said that if elected, he would make the EU pay a high price for not buying enough American products.[4] This would involve raising tariffs, which could lead to an increase in missiles and higher prices around the world. This would undoubtedly have a negative impact on European countries, whether they are US allies or not. The EU’s low level of economic growth compared to China and the United States, and its declining share in world trade as well as domestic production, encourages the EU to take more concrete measures.
On the other hand, the EU countries’ reactions to Trump’s approaches have been mild. However, it may take much longer for continental Europe, which has become dependent on the US in the post-World War II order, to break free from these ties. Even though opposition to Trump is high within the EU, names like Viktor Orban and Georgia Meloni, who see themselves as close to Trump, could also shape European politics. Such transatlantic ties greatly reduce unity within the European Project. Trump’s policies therefore pose a danger even for EU allies.[5]
In the shadow of these circumstances, the European Political Community Summit was held in Hungary three days after the US elections and Trump was the main agenda item. The leaders gathered in Budapest signed a declaration to increase the troubled competitiveness. The leaders emphasized that the question of “what should be done” should no longer be asked to America, but to Europe itself, and that the steps taken should not only be in reaction to the elections. In response, Orban emphasized that there were no serious disagreements between the countries and that everyone agreed on competitiveness.[6]
Important steps are being taken at such summits. But more concrete steps need to be taken. In 1954, the French parliament rejected the European Defense Community, which is now out of the question, and a common army and a review of defense options may be on the agenda. Or the EU countries could acquiesce to Trump’s terms. Neither option would change the nature of the transatlantic relationship and solve Europe’s major security challenges and tensions.
[1] Psarapoulos, John (2024), “Europe braces for a ‘swift and brutal transition’ to the world of Trump”, Al Jazeera, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/11/11/europe-braces-for-a-swift-and-brutal-transition-to-the-world-of-trump, (Erişim Tarihi: 12.11.2024).
[2] Kissinger, Henry (2014), “How the Ukraine crisis ends”, The Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/henry-kissinger-to-settle-the-ukraine-crisis-start-at-the-end/2014/03/05/46dad868-a496-11e3-8466-d34c451760b9_story.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 12.11.2024).
[3] Vocki, Ido & McGuinness, Damien (2024), “German coalition collapses after Scholz fires key minister”, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c7v3r046pzzo, (Erişim Tarihi: 12.11.2024).
[4] Holland, Steve & Beech, Eric (2024), “Europe will pay a ‘big price’, Trump warns on tariffs”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe-will-pay-, (Erişim Tarihi: 12.11.2024).
[5] Rij, Armida (2024), “Trump and his growing number of European allies threaten the European project”, Chatham House, https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/11/trump-and-his-growing-number-european-allies-threaten-european-project, (Erişim Tarihi: 12.11.2024).
[6] Henley, Jon (2024), “EU leaders vow to make bloc more competitive in face of Trump threat”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/08/eu-summit-trade-policy-economic-growth, (Erişim Tarihi: 12.11.2024).
