Hungary took over the six-month rotating presidency of the European Union on July 1, 2024. Five days later Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban traveled to Kiev and met with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky as well as forming the “Patriots for Europe” alliance with other right-wing groups in the European Parliament.
After his contacts in Ukraine, Orban traveled to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to seek a solution to the war. Orban’s meeting with Putin drew harsh reactions from other EU leaders and Ukraine said that it had not been consulted.
The fact that Hungary led by Orban, acted in line with its own interests and established contacts with Russia and undertook a peace mission for Ukraine, despite being the rotating EU president, is a new indicator of the deep cracks in European politics. The President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, said that the path to a just and lasting peace in Ukraine lies through unity and determination within the EU.[i]
It is stated that Orban’s Moscow contacts aim to “defuse tensions” and Hungary “wants to leave the door open for dialogue with Russia.” Unlike other EU leaders Orban, who tends to establish a dialogue with Putin, intends to draw a new road map within the EU regarding the crisis and leave a mark in European politics.
Shortly before the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Leaders’ Summit in Washington, Hungary’s turn towards dialogue with Russia and the search for a solution to the crisis as the rotating EU president may also cause problems in transatlantic relations in the long run. Indeed, in his first statement after assuming the EU presidency, Orban called for “Make Europe Great Again” adapting Donald Trump’s slogan for “America” for “the EU.”[ii]
The EU, which has to pursue its Ukraine policies under the defense-security umbrella of the United States (US) and NATO may have an important opportunity to chart its own path under Hungary’s presidency. Hungary, which wants to give a new direction to EU politics aims to reduce the influence of the US if it can resolve the Ukraine Crisis. Both Hungary and Russia may be hoping that Trump will take office after the US presidential elections and that the new dialog with Putin will lead to a solution to the war in Ukraine. However, at least until the end of 2024, no major rupture in the EU’s relations with the US is expected.
The change in the UK with the return of the Labor Party to power after a 14-year absence may also affect the Western World and global politics. Continental Europe can already see that with a possible Trump change in the US, transatlantic relations will face major challenges. In these troubled relations, the UK may have an important mission: “Mediation.” It will be a matter of curiosity how Trump who worked with the Conservative Party governments in the 2017-2021 period, will establish a relationship with the Labour Party government after 2025. If the UK can keep its relations with the EU positive on the conduct of Brexit, it will be able to strengthen its position in Europe. Thus, the EU may need the UK’s support in managing and resolving the crisis in Ukraine. Ultimately, the UK’s role will be important for Continental Europe to manage its relations with NATO and the US in a healthy manner.
In addition, it remains to be seen what kind of change Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who was elected as NATO’s new Secretary General and is expected to take office on October 1, 2024, will bring to the alliance. Even if a significant change in NATO’s policy and strategic vision is not expected under Rutte’s leadership, at least a different tone on critical issues such as Russia and China may be given, and this may change the overall stance of the alliance and especially its orientation towards the Asia-Pacific. Therefore how Rutte chooses to manage the alliance’s global strategy as NATO Secretary General may also be decisive for the global balance of power.
China, North Korea and Russia have frequently voiced their concerns about NATO’s expanding influence in Asia and the Asia-Pacific in recent years. Therefore, the main challenge Rutte is likely to face in his new role will be the implementation of NATO’s Global Strategic Vision. In short under Rutte’s leadership, NATO’s rhetoric and tone on security and defense policies may change. A more European-oriented approach to transatlantic relations, for example, could have a significant impact on the balance within the Western World. Nevertheless, it should be emphasized that the position of NATO Secretary General is structured to build consensus and cooperation among the Allies. Thus, even in the event of the appointment of a new Secretary General, NATO’s core principles and mission generally remain, and major strategic changes are widely discussed and agreed.
In conclusion, for the Western World, the years 2024-2025 will witness important challenges that could create serious ruptures in the global balance of power. In particular, it remains to be seen how Continental Europe will manage this crisis. While Europe wants to resolve the crisis in Ukraine, it also wants to be less dependent on the US. At this point, Britain’s role is needed. Therefore, NATO may have great responsibilities in strengthening transatlantic ties and opening a new chapter in the coming years. In this context, the preparation and implementation of a new strategic security concept and vision document on the Asia-Pacific within the EU and NATO may be on the agenda. In this way, new steps can be taken for the security of Europe and the Asia-Pacific and to put an end to the debate on NATO’s mandate and mandate.
[i] “Hungary’s Orban talks Ukraine peace with Putin, stirring EU outcry”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungarys-orban-says-no-position-negotiate-between-ukraine-russia-2024-07-05/, (Date of Access: 06.07.2024).
[ii] “Orban’s meeting with Putin on Ukraine peace deal is ‘appeasement’, EU leaders say”, France24, https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240705-hungary-s-orban-arrives-in-moscow-on-peace-mission-without-eu-mandate, (Date of Access: 06.07.2024).
