In a statement on April 25.2024, North Korea said that the expansion of the AUKUS will turn the Asia-Pacific region into a nuclear minefield ready to explode.[1] The defense ministers of the AUKUS countries had issued a statement in early April stating that they considered Japan as a partner in trilateral security cooperation by 2024. Japan is the first country to be invited to work within the framework of the tripartite AUKUS since it was launched in September 2021.
The AUKUS consists mainly of two columns. The main goal of the first column is to help Australia obtain nuclear-powered submarines with conventional weapons. The goal of the second column focuses on developing advanced combat capabilities such as artificial intelligence, undersea unmanned aerial vehicles, hypersonic and electronic warfare technologies. In this context, it is expected that Japan, New Zealand and Canada will join the second pillar of the AUKUS.[2] According to US officials, the reason why countries such as Japan and New Zealand were invited to the second pillar of the AUKUS is to create a wide network of allies in the region.
A significant number of Asia-Pacific countries have become signatories of the Southeast Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty of 1995 (the Bangkok Treaty) and the South Pacific Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Agreement of 1986 (the Rarotonga Agreement). In addition, the Joint Declaration for a Nuclear-free Korean Peninsula was signed in 1992.
Despite these agreements, the development of nuclear-powered submarines and other military technologies within the scope of the first and second pillars of the AUKUS indicates that the nuclear-free structure of the region will disappear over time. Regarding this issue, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, in a statement on the basis of his visit to Papua New Guinea on April 21, 2024, criticized the AUKUS trilateral defense partnership, saying that the Pacific should not become an arena for great power competition.[3] Reiterating that China is against inter-bloc conflict in the region, Wang emphasized that such an approach is not compatible with the needs and historical development trends of Pacific countries.
On the one hand, Western powers are trying to limit China’s economic influence in the region through alliances such as the AUKUS, while on the other hand, Beijing is further strengthening its political ties with Pacific island countries. Japan’s plan to join the second pillar of the AUKUS leads to China’s reaction. Chinese Ministry of Defense Spokesman Wu Qian said that China is concerned about Japan’s plan to join the AUKUS and strongly opposes relevant countries coming together in special groups, forming bilateral or multilateral military alliances aimed at China, creating divisions and conflict, and fueling bloc Deconfliction.[5]
Noting that the US-Japan alliance is a product of the Cold War and should not target third parties or disrupt regional peace and stability, Wu said that Japan is once again showing a dangerous trend of military expansion, rather than seriously considering its past actions.[5]
Indeed, the participation of Japan, New Zealand, Canada and India in such a military alliance could radically change the security of the Asia-Pacific and the regional balance of power. In recent years, the security activities of the West in the Asia-Pacific have been increasing, new alliances have emerged in the region or their scope has been expanding.
It is known that NATO has established new partnerships with South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand over the past two years. In addition, the planned strategic dialogue with India has been interpreted as the expansion of NATO towards the Asia-Pacific. It has been discussed for a long time that Japan may also join AUKUS. But to date, both the United States and Britain have denied claims that Japan will participate in this cooperation.[6] Therefore, it is noteworthy that at this point an understanding has emerged for Japan, New Zealand and Canada to join the AUKUS. This means that “anti-China” alliances are gradually strengthening and expanding in the Asia-Pacific.
It is obvious that the Western World will accelerate its polarizing politics in Asia-Pacific in the near future. If Japan, New Zealand and Canada officially join the AUKUS, efforts to denuclearize the Asia-Pacific will be disrupted. The acceleration of military polarization and expansionism in the region during the Cold War period may pave the way for the establishment of an Asian NATO in the future.
[1] “N. Korea says expansion of AUKUS will turn Asia-Pacific region into ‘nuclear minefield’”, Korea Times, https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2024/04/103_373441.html, (Date of Accession: 26.04.2024).
[2] “Australia wants Japan to collaborate with AUKUS on defense tech”, Japantimes, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/02/18/japan/politics/australia-looks-to-japan-aukus/, (Date of Accession: 26.04.2024).
[3] “China criticizes AUKUS alliance, warns against major power competition in Pacific”, AA, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/china-criticizes-aukus-alliance-warns-against-major-power-competition-in-pacific/3198492, Date of Accession: 26.04.2024).
[4] “China concerned about Japan’s plan to join AUKUS, firmly opposes relevant countries cobbling together exclusive groupings: defense ministry”, Global Times, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202404/1311307.shtml, (Date of Accession: 26.04.2024).
[5] Aynı yer.
[6] “US Denies Inviting Japan to Join Aukus Security Alliance”, SCMP, https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3174185/us-denies-inviting-japan-join-aukus-security-alliance, (Date of Accession: 26.04.2024).
