Thailand’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Maris Sangiampongsa, chaired separate consultative meetings with members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) on December 19–20, 2024, as part of discussions aimed at finding a solution to the ongoing crisis triggered by the 2021 coup that overthrew the civilian government led by the National League for Democracy in Myanmar. These meetings highlight the Thai Government’s intention to play a more active role in resolving the conflict in Myanmar and hold critical importance for ensuring stability in Southeast Asia, assessing ASEAN’s capacity for crisis management, and understanding the dynamics of regional power balances.
An informal consultative meeting was held on Thursday with the participation of representatives from Myanmar’s neighboring countries—China, India, Bangladesh, Laos, and Thailand—along with Myanmar’s junta-appointed Foreign Minister, Than Swe. This meeting is noteworthy as it marks the first instance of Myanmar and its five neighboring countries coming together. On the other hand, since the meeting was not held under ASEAN’s auspices, it does not directly reflect the organization’s official policy on the Myanmar crisis. Indeed, since the coup, ASEAN has not recognized Myanmar’s military leaders and has allowed only representatives without political status to participate in regional-level leaders’ and foreign ministers’ meetings.
As stated by Thailand’s Foreign Minister Maris, the five countries that participated in Thursday’s meeting emphasized their consensus on the critical and necessary nature of direct engagement with Myanmar.[1] This approach reflects the greater understanding displayed by these countries due to their geographical proximity to Myanmar compared to others.[2] Thailand’s interest in Myanmar’s stability stands as a notable example in the context of regional security. Similarly, neighboring countries such as China, India, and Bangladesh harbor serious concerns regarding the potential spillover of conflicts in Myanmar into their border regions. This underscores the need for a more comprehensive and cooperative approach to preserving regional stability and ensuring border security.
Within this framework, the meeting held on Thursday focused on addressing shared challenges, including border security, transnational crime, and the management of water resources. Furthermore, Myanmar’s junta-appointed Foreign Minister, Than Swe, briefed regional counterparts on the military administration’s political roadmap and the preparations for the elections scheduled for next year. According to Nikorndej Balankura, spokesperson for Thailand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Myanmar’s neighboring states generally expressed a positive stance toward the proposed election plan.[3] This favorable approach may be shaped by concerns over a potential power vacuum in the event of the military administration’s overthrow and skepticism regarding the ability of resistance movements to achieve success against the junta.
China views the elections as an opportunity to safeguard its infrastructure projects in border regions and to promote stability in the area. This approach aligns with the key motivations shaping China’s peace initiatives in Myanmar, particularly the investments in the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor and the Belt and Road Initiative projects in Rakhine State, which represent primary drivers of Beijing’s stability efforts in the region. China’s approach aligns with the policies of other neighboring countries, such as Thailand, India, and Bangladesh. Bordering Myanmar, these nations are profoundly affected by increasingly acute challenges, including refugee inflows, cross-border crime, and economic instability. Consequently, they support a Myanmar-centered solution to mitigate the transboundary effects of instability.
During the discussions held on Friday, ASEAN foreign ministers convened to address issues concerning Myanmar and to deliberate on ASEAN’s “Five-Point Consensus” plan. This development highlights that the Five-Point Consensus continues to serve as a foundational reference point for ASEAN in resolving the ongoing political crisis in Myanmar. Adopted by ASEAN in April 2021, the Five-Point Consensus plan aims to bring an immediate end to violence in Myanmar, initiate an inclusive national dialogue among all relevant parties, enable the ASEAN special envoy to assume a mediatory role, and facilitate the delivery of humanitarian assistance through ASEAN mechanisms.
However, despite the passage of three years, the military junta in Myanmar has flagrantly violated these commitments by escalating violence and obstructing the delivery of humanitarian aid. This situation has raised serious questions about ASEAN’s crisis management capacity and the viability of the Five-Point Consensus. ASEAN’s adherence to a consensus-based decision-making process and its principle of non-interference in internal affairs significantly constrain the organization’s ability to compel the Myanmar military to implement the Five-Point Consensus or to impose sanctions in the event of its violation. Indeed, Bolbongse Vangphaen, Director-General of Thailand’s ASEAN Affairs Department, remarked during Friday’s discussions that no concrete agreement was reached on overcoming these challenges.[4]
One of the greatest obstacles to resolving the conflict in Myanmar is the indifference of the parties toward the negotiation processes. Over the period following the coup, the internal war, shaped by the autonomy demands of ethnic groups, has evolved into a zero-sum power struggle aimed at achieving absolute dominance over the country’s future. In this context, keeping the Five-Point Consensus plan on the agenda is of critical importance in establishing ASEAN’s credibility and defining its role, both regionally and internationally, in its approach to the Myanmar crisis. ASEAN’s approach to this crisis is regarded not only as a test of solidarity among its member states but also as a process that shapes the organization’s position as a strategic actor in the eyes of the international community. The absence of negotiations in Myanmar and the transformation of the crisis into a zero-sum dynamic further underscore the importance of ASEAN’s ability to implement this plan effectively.
Thailand holds a unique diplomatic position in the context of the crisis in Myanmar due to its relationships with both the military junta and revolutionary groups. Its financial and diplomatic support for the junta, particularly through investments in Myanmar’s oil and gas sector, plays a vital role in enabling the military administration to sustain its operations. In addition, Thailand holds a significant position of influence over revolutionary groups, possessing substantial potential to de-escalate conflicts and facilitate dialogue between the parties. These multifaceted relationships position Thailand as an ideal actor for mediating the Myanmar crisis. Thailand’s role within ASEAN assumes even greater significance in this context. It is a rational course of action for Thailand to sustain its leadership position, given its role in ensuring regional stability and enhancing efforts to address the humanitarian crisis in Myanmar. Such leadership has the potential to contribute to ASEAN’s formulation of more effective and holistic strategies to address the crises in Myanmar.
In conclusion, the Myanmar crisis represents a test of ASEAN’s leadership capacity in maintaining regional security and stability. The strategies to be developed to resolve the crisis will not only ensure Myanmar’s stability but also play a determining role in shaping ASEAN’s reputation and influence on the international stage. Although Thailand’s mediation efforts and the cooperation of other regional countries provide a promising basis for establishing a joint resolution process, these efforts must be supported by ASEAN’s holistic approach. The cross-border impacts and economic risks in the region make it imperative for ASEAN to adopt a more decisive stance in addressing the crisis.
In this context, Malaysia’s assumption of the ASEAN Chairmanship in January 2025 holds the potential to shape the future of regional efforts addressing the Myanmar crisis. The Langkawi Summit offers a critical opportunity to clarify ASEAN’s stance on Myanmar and to develop a joint roadmap for crisis management. The decisions to be made at the summit will test ASEAN’s regional leadership capacity through key issues such as the feasibility of the Five-Point Consensus, the role of the ASEAN special envoy, and the promotion of an inclusive political process. The approaches to be developed during this process will be decisive not only for Myanmar but also for ASEAN’s long-term influence at the regional and international levels.
[1] “Thailand hosts regional talks to find solutions to Myanmar’s bloody civil war”, AP News, https://apnews.com/article/myanmar-conflict-asean-diplomacy-8b05c4d22e649f88aeb1449bcf052710, (Date of Access: 20.12.2024).
[2] Ibid.
[3] “Myanmar’s Election Ambitions: Insights from Than Swe’s Diplomatic Plans in Bangkok”, Thai News, https://thai.news/news/thailand/myanmars-election-ambitions-insights-from-than-swes-diplomatic-plans-in-bangkok, (Date of Access: 21.12.2024).
[4] “Thailand calls regional talks on war-torn Myanmar frank but short on agreement”, VOA News, https://www.voanews.com/a/thailand-calls-regional-talks-on-war-torn-myanmar-frank-but-short-on-agreement-/7909022.html, (Date of Access: 21.12.2024).
