Germany has a long history known for its stability and predictability. However, the early election process on February 23 reveals deep weaknesses within the country’s political structure. Traditional center-right and center-left blocs are weakening as the rise of the far right and smaller parties fragment the votes. According to analysts, Germany is moving toward an “Italian-style, fragmented” political landscape with this election.
Throughout Germany’s political history, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian counterpart, the Christian Social Union (CSU), have been the primary choice for conservative voters. The CDU/CSU has a great number of supporters particularly among rural, elderly, and religious voters. This alliance, which has provided multiple chancellors for Germany over the past seventy years, was defeated in the 2021 elections by the Social Democratic Party (SPD) under the leadership of Olaf Scholz, pushing the CDU/CSU into the opposition. However, under the leadership of Friedrich Merz, it seems likely that the CDU/CSU could return to power. SPD, on the other hand, has traditionally gathered support from the working class and female voters, securing a strong position in industrial regions such as North Rhine-Westphalia. However in recent years, SPD’s voter base has been shrinking. Frequently compared to the Labour Party in the UK, SPD no longer enjoys the same level of working-class support as it once did despite having taken root in the labor movement.
Founded in 2013, the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) entered the Bundestag for the first time in the 2017 elections with 12.6% of votes and has continued to gain momentum ever since.[1] Although AfD’s national votes fell to 10.4% in the 2021 elections, they have strengthened their influence in the former East German states. The party remains strong in Thuringia, Saxony, and Saxony-Anhalt, where they could surpass 20% in the 2024 elections.
The rise of the AfD threatens the established political consensus of mainstream parties, which have maintained a firm stance against any coalition with the far-right. However, as the AfD’s votes continues to increase, maintaining this stance gets increasingly difficult. According to political analyst Martin Elff, AfD’s popularity arises not only from their anti-immigration policies but also from distrust in traditional parties.[2] AfD’s recent rise in popularity is both reshaping Germany’s domestic politics and marking a significant turning point for right-wing populist movements across the rest of Europe.
Merkel’s criticism of Merz for shifting the CDU to the right has raised concerns that this might legitimize the AfD in the eyes of the public. The statement that “the AfD’s support for immigration laws encourages radical nationalist leaders” highlights the potential spillover effect of Germany’s political dynamics on other right-wing parties.[3] This shift has created a dynamic that could influence the future of European politics. Merkel’s remarks highlight the amount of threat against Germany’s political stability and European unity. While the AfD’s rise shakes Germany’s long-standing political equilibrium, it also strengthens right-wing movements across the continent.
Germany’s Green Party stands out as one of Europe’s most successful environmentalist parties. Having participated in three coalition governments since 1998, the Greens increased their vote share in the 2021 elections, becoming the leading party in 16 electoral districts for the first time.[4] Particularly popular among women and young voters, the Greens hold a strong position in major cities. However, backlash against their policies and economic concerns by the public could make it difficult for the party to reach its 2021 success.
The Free Democratic Party (FDP) usually enters parliament by surpassing the 5% electoral threshold but has never won the majority vote in any district. The FDP has a greater support among young male voters, securing 11% of the vote in the 2021 elections.[5] However, the dismissal of FDP leader and Finance Minister Christian Lindner by Olaf Scholz has severely damaged the party’s popularity. If the FDP fails to surpass the 5% threshold in this election, it risks being left out of the federal parliament.
One of Germany’s largest left-wing parties, The Left (Die Linke), found itself at a critical juncture in the 2021 elections with only 4.9% of the votes. The party managed to maintain parliamentary representation by winning direct mandates in three districts. In recent years, ideological conflicts within the party have intensified, leading prominent politician Sahra Wagenknecht to leave the party to form a new one, the BSW. While BSW’s economic and social policies align with traditional leftist principles, its hardline stance on immigration is closer to the AfD. Popular among voters in East Germany, the new party could further divide Die Lanke’s votes and weaken the left wing.
The current political landscape in Germany clearly illustrates that no party will be able to form a government independently. If the CDU/CSU emerges as the strongest party, Friedrich Merz is likely to become the next chancellor. However, the party faces limited options for possible coalition candidates. While cooperation with the AfD has been ruled out by mainstream parties, the CDU/CSU may have to form a coalition with the Greens if the FDP fails to pass the 5% threshold.[6] For the SPD to remain in government, it may not be enough for the Greens and FDP to enter parliament. Given the FDP’s internal crisis and the possibility of the Greens losing votes, maintaining the current “traffic light coalition” could become increasingly difficult.
In conclusion, upcoming elections in February 23 represent a critical juncture that will shape Germany’s future. With mainstream parties losing support, the far right rising, and smaller parties playing a decisive role in coalitions, this new political era raises significant questions about Germany’s stability and leadership in Europe.
The current political landscape indicates that Germany’s traditional stability is giving way to a more fragmented and uncertain structure. Established parties like the CDU/CSU and SPD are experiencing voter losses, while far-right and far-left parties such as the AfD and BSW are on the rise. On the other hand, smaller parties including the Greens and FDP are struggling for survival. This election could mark the beginning of a lasting transformation in Germany’s political system. The decline of traditional parties necessitate new alliances to form, while the AfD’s rise might challenge the fundamental principles of the established system. Germany’s future will not only depend on the election results but also on how parties will proceed after the election.
[1] Lucia Mackenzie, “How Germany found itself holding an Italian election”, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-italy-elections-federal-cdu-csu-olaf-scholz-spd-vote/, (Accessed: 07.02.2025).
[2] Rosie Birchard, “Where do Europe’s far-right parties differ?”, DW, https://www.dw.com/en/where-do-europes-far-right-parties-differ/video-71506085, (Accessed: 07.02.2025).
[3] Tim Ross and Nette Nöstlinger, “Merkel, Musk and the far right: What is going on in Germany’s election?”, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/angela-merkel-elon-musk-far-right-afd-germany-election/, (Accessed: 07.02.2025).
[4] Ibid.
[5] Ibid.
[6] Ibid.
