In his statement on January 19, 2024, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned that Russia could attack NATO in 5-8 years and in this context, the European Union should prepare for war by the end of the year.[1] With the existence of speculations that Russian threats would increase towards the end of the decade, the German Minister called on European countries to strengthen their defense industries and adapt to geopolitical changes. Pointing out to the reluctance of European Union countries and especially the USA in the continent, Pistorius said that “Russia’s threats against the Baltic countries, Georgia and Moldova should be taken very seriously.”
Germany has intensified its efforts to rebuild its armed forces by taking advantage of the 100 billion euro special fund created after Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Pistorius, who took on the post of Minister of Defense at the beginning of this year, has been exposed to criticism due to the recent deviations in the pacifist understanding shaped in Germany after the Second World War.
The German Minister attempted to create a more solid military structure by presenting new defense proposals that envisaged the country being “ready for war” and assuming a military leadership role in Europe. Regarding the issue, Pistorious commented, “It will take time for the defense industry to increase its capacities. We now have about five to eight years to reach this level, both for the armed forces, for industry and for society.” To strengthen European defense cooperation, Pistorius has advocated adding a military component to the Weimar Triangle, an informal forum consisting of Germany, Poland and France.
Strategists in Europe are constantly warning about the “risk of Russian attack”. During such a period, Berlin took action to place a new armored tank brigade in the Lithuania region.[2] Thus, if Russia launches an attack on NATO territory, thousands of German soldiers will remain only 100 kilometers from the Russian border and in the direct line of fire.
Speaking about this support to Lithuania, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced that an agreement will be signed that foresees the deployment of 4,800 German soldiers in the Baltic country. “With this combat-ready brigade, we assume leadership responsibility here in the alliance and on NATO’s eastern flank,” Pistorius said. Also adding, “The speed of the project clearly shows that Germany understands the new security reality.”[3]
These bases are located very close to the Suwałki Pass, a narrow pass connecting Russia’s Kaliningrad region and its close ally Belarus. Western military planners warn that this region will be one of Russia’s first NATO targets after Ukraine.
Alongside Germany, the UK’s Chief of Staff, General Sir Patrick Sanders, has warned that Britons could be called up to fight in the armed forces if his country goes to war with Russia.[4] The commander of the British Army has stated that British men and women must be ready for duty if NATO goes to war with Russia.
A few days before the British General’s words, on January 17, 2024, NATO Military Committee Chairman Admiral Rob Bauer said that the military alliance should prepare for a conflict with Vladimir Putin’s forces in the next 20 years.[5]
General Lord Dannatt, one of the former general staff of the British Army, drew attention to the shrinking structure of the army and emphasized that it decreased from 102,000 personnel in 2006 to 74,000 today. According to that; The current situation of the UK armed forces is similar to the unassailable superiority over Germany during the Second World War. In this sense, according to General Lord Dannatt; “There is a serious danger of history repeating itself.” But this time, it is estimated that England will not be able to prevail against Russia. Pointing to increasing geopolitical uncertainty, General Lord Dannatt commented: “If our armed forces are not strong enough to deter future attacks by Moscow or Beijing, this will be a big war, not a little war.”[6]
Former British Defense Minister Tobias Ellwood said that there was “a 1939 feeling in the world” and that Britain was not equipped to deal with “what was coming on the horizon.” Pointing to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Ellwood made the following assessment:[7]
“There is a risk aversion to the West wanting to deal with this, and our global institutions like the United Nations are unable to hold these nations (Russia) accountable. Our world is no longer at peace. We are moving towards a world at war. “Britain certainly has a role to play, but we need to step up our defensive posture.”
It seems that both Germany and England are preparing for a war against Russia. Particularly noteworthy are Germany’s efforts to establish a military alliance with Poland and France within the scope of the “Weimer Triangle” platform. Because at the same time Poland has also established a defense alliance with Ukraine and England. Thus, the era of informal alliances began to be built in Europe. This is very similar to the coalitions and confrontations established before the first and second world wars. We should also emphasize that during this process, Ukraine negotiated bilateral defense agreements with Romania and the Netherlands, as well as with the G7 countries. European countries are seeking to establish bilateral and multiple defense alliances among themselves, independently of NATO. These steps further enhance NATO’s collective defense capacity against Russia, but at the same time they further provoke Russia and escalate the risk of war in Europe.
[1] “EU Should Prepare for War by End of Decade, German Defence Minister Warns”, Euronews, https://www.euronews.com/2023/12/18/eu-should-prepare-for-war-by-end-of-decade-german-defence-minister-warns, (Date of Accession: 24.01.2024).
[2] “Germany Puts Its Troops in The Line of Fire If Putin Attacks NATO”, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-strikes-deal-with-lithuania-on-its-first-permanent-foreign-troop-deployment/, (Date of Accession: 24.01.2024).
[3] Ibıd.
[4] “Britons face call-up to fight in the armed forces if UK goes to war with Russia, top army chief warns”, Independent, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/britain-war-russia-putin-nato-b2483837.html, (Date of Accession: 24.01.2024).
[5] “NATO Askeri Komuta Başkanı Bauer’den Batı’ya, Savaşmak Dahil ‘Her an Her Şeye Hazır Olun’ Çağrısı”, Euronews, https://tr.euronews.com/2024/01/17/nato-askeri-komuta-baskani-bauerden-batiya-savasmak-dahil-her-an-her-seye-hazir-olun-cagri, (Date of Accession: 24.01.2024).
[6] Ibıd
[7] Ibıd
