The German federal elections held on February 23, 2025 is seen as a turning point regarding the political future of the country and it’s estimated effects on European Union policies. It is believed that the elections will alter Germany’s role in EU and the future of the union.
When looked at the election results, The Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) leader Friedrich Merz has declared victory. Merz’s party gained 28,5% of the votes and remained first in line. This result means that the center-right has returned to power in Germany. However, it was not enough for CDU to govern alone, forcing the party to enter coalition negotiations. Presumed coalitions are the Social Democrat Party (SDP) with other possible talks with the other parties. SDP coming in second in the election results is an important factor fort he talks.
Merz is known for his conservative policies and economy focused approach. He started his political career as a member of the European Parliament and then resumed to work in the German Federal Assembly (Bundestag). Merz’s leadership can lead to significant changes in German internal and external policies. Merz supports policies that aim to maximize Germany’s global economic competition. He emphasizes capitalism and has an approach that encourages a free market economy.
Merz aims to improve Europe’s defence capabilities and reduce dependency on United States of America (USA). He emphasizes the importance of the development of a more independent defence policy for EU. This approach might redefine Germany’s relations with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and lead to a strong defence alliance in EU. Though Merz sees Türkiye as a strategic partner he is skeptical about Türkiye’s potential EU membership. He is against Türkiye’s full membership and suggests alternative cooperation models. This approach might be signaling a new stage in Germany and Türkiye relations.
1. Merkel Era (2005-2021)
Germany in Merkel era became the strongest economic actor in EU and a power that affects both internal and external policies. Germany took role as an important leader in decision-making mechanisms in the EU. Angela Merkel took a reconciling role in major crises in the EU and endorsed Germany’s role in the EU. Merkel’s versatile leadership helped maintain the stability in EU. Merkel took initiative regarding the migration policies of EU and Germany became the country with the biggest immigrant population. This approach led to problems in the EU and affected future migration policies.
Germany took initiative in the 2008 Financial Crisis and the Euro Area Crisis during the beginning of 2010s to help EU countries manage their debt. During this process, the austerity policies inflicted by Germany using economic power on the other countries in the Euro Area (especially Greece) reshaped the political and economic stability of the EU. Germany, being the most powerful economic actor, had significant effect on shaping EU policies. Germany became a leading actor in EU market integration, free trade treaties and green transformation during this era.
2. Friedrich Merz’s Possible Effecrs and the New Era
The defence policy of Friedrich Merz might directly effect Germany’s role in the EU. Merz might take steps to reduce Germany’s defence dependency to the US and improve EU’s mutual defence policies. This might help EU move more independently in global power dynamics. Merz might develop policies in regard to the improvement of EU’s self-defence capabilities while stabilizing Germany’s relations with NATO. This might make EU’s security policies more sovereign against global powers like the United States and Russia.
Merz might take a different approach towards leading Germany’s economic policies in the EU comparing to Merkel. Merz defends Europe leading a more free market focused economic approach towards the United States and China. EU in German leadership might develop new strategies to create a more free international trade. Merz aims to maximize Germany’s leadership in areas such as green energy and digitalization. EU might accelerate its green transformation policies with Germany’s initiative but this might lead to conflicts with some EU countries due to the economic and environmental costs.
The extreme right wing party AFD gaining power in Germany might affect EU policies. Merz’s harsh attitue towards popülist movements might limit the effects of the extreme right within EU. However, this might cause Germany to adopt more dominant policies and less cooperative ones in the EU which might cause conflict in domestic politics. AFD’s growing effect in Germany might encourage other popülist movements within EU and might lead to an increase in internal conflicts in regards to EU’ future. The type of strategies Merz will follow in reaction to these populist movements will determine Germany’s future position in the EU.
Scenarios
Friedrich Merz gathers attention with his discourse about market based economy policies and independent European defence strategies. As the leader of CDU he aims to make Germany a more powerful and independent actor in the EU. He also aims to make Germany a leader in the EU that supports economic growth by following more liberal trade policies. The government might reconsider green transformation policies and encourage Germany’s industry sector. This will affect Germany’s trade relations especially with China and the United States.
Within the EU, we may see a more proactive Germany in trade policies. By supporting the establishment of an independent EU defense force, Germany could shift the balance within NATO. Germany’s defense spending is expected to increase, which could shape the EU’s security policies. Given the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, these new German defense policies may further emphasize military cooperation within the EU. Germany may adopt stricter border controls and a more selective immigration policy. The rise of the AFD could bring stricter immigration policies to the agenda. How Germany leads EU’s mutual migration policies will be determinative for other member states. This situation could affect the EU’s relations, particularly with Central and Eastern European countries, as some EU nations expect Germany to follow a more open immigration policy.
Germany’s New Era: Risks and Opportunities for the EU
Under the leadership of Friedrich Merz, Germany presents both opportunities and risks for the EU.
Opportunities: The EU may develop a more independent defense policy. Germany’s leadership in trade policies could make the EU more competitive in global markets. Germany’s economic growth-oriented approach could boost investments within the EU.
Risks: The rise of the AfD could increase support for anti-EU policies in Germany. Stricter immigration policies in Germany may create divisions within the EU’s common migration policies. The leadership rivalry between Germany and France could deepen instability in the EU’s internal dynamics.
