The new strategic moves of the United States (US) in the global power struggle aim to shape geopolitical balances by focusing on the Russia-Ukraine War and developments in the Indo-Pacific region. The decision of President Donald Trump to hold a phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin and initiate the negotiation process was intended not only to end the conflict in Ukraine but also to distance Russia from China, thereby creating a balance in favor of the US.
Meanwhile, the summit held in Washington with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was considered an important step toward strengthening India in the China-India rivalry by deepening US-India cooperation. These strategic initiatives reflect the US’s shift from a Europe-centered security policy toward the Indo-Pacific, aiming both to balance China’s regional influence and to reinforce the US’s global leadership position.
US President Donald Trump announced that during a phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin on February 12, 2025, they reached an agreement to initiate negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, stating that the meeting would take place in Saudi Arabia. Trump’s view that Ukraine’s membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is unlikely prompted diplomatic initiatives in Berlin, Paris, and London, with countries such as France, Germany, and the United Kingdom calling for an active role in the negotiations.[1]
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky described his meeting with Trump as an important step toward achieving “lasting and reliable peace,” emphasizing that the US and Europe must be involved in this process. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stated that Trump is the “only leader” capable of guiding the parties toward peace, while Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov also expressed Russia’s positive reception of the negotiation proposal. Trump’s implication that it may not be possible for Ukraine to fully return to its pre-2014 borders increased the likelihood that the negotiations might involve territorial concessions; this made Zelensky’s warning that “peace is impossible without Ukraine’s participation”[2] even more significant.
Zelensky, in an interview with NBC, emphasized that it would be “very difficult” to resist the Russian invasion and maintain post-war existence without US support. In his statements at the Munich Security Conference, he noted that Putin viewed a ceasefire as an opportunity to lift international sanctions and rebuild the Russian military. The Trump administration’s distanced approach to Ukraine has raised concerns in Europe about the risk of NATO weakening and Russia being rewarded. According to European intelligence, Russia may launch new attacks within five years if NATO is perceived as weak. So far, approximately one million people have lost their lives in the war.[3]
During his meeting with Trump, Zelensky stressed that peace is only possible if Ukraine, Europe, and the US act with a common position, stating that NATO membership is the strongest security guarantee for Ukraine. Warning against the risks of bilateral negotiations between the US and Russia, Zelensky stated that it is vital for Ukraine to participate in the negotiations from a position of strength.[4]
Senior officials from Russia and the US held a series of negotiations in Saudi Arabia to prepare for a possible summit between Putin and Trump. The summit addressed solutions aimed at ending the conflict in Ukraine.[5]
The Trump administration’s new approach essentially aims to distance Russia from China and strengthen India in the China-India rivalry. On February 13, 2025, during a summit held in Washington with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the “US-India Alliance for the 21st Century” initiative was launched. As part of this initiative, projects such as the 10-year Defense Framework Agreement, joint production of autonomous systems, and fifth-generation fighter jets were announced, along with the “Mission 500” plan, which aims to increase trade volume to 500 billion dollars by 2030.[6]Trump’s simultaneous pursuit of negotiations with Russia and these significant steps with India demonstrates that the US is pursuing a strategic balance policy against China-Russia relations and seeks to turn the China-India rivalry in favor of the US.
The US initiative to end the Russia-Ukraine War is seen as an effort by the Trump administration to reshape its global priorities. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s statement that the US now prioritizes deterrence against the Chinese threat in the Indo-Pacific rather than European security is one of the clearest indicators of this shift. This move is considered part of the US strategy to distance Russia from China and shift the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific in its favor.
China is closely monitoring this new US orientation, fearing that a rapprochement between Trump and Putin could weaken Beijing’s strategic influence over Moscow. In particular, the exclusion of China from the US-led Ukraine negotiations could diminish its role in resolving international crises. Furthermore, China’s plans regarding Taiwan may also be affected by these developments.
The successful conclusion of the negotiation process between the Trump administration and Russia could signal new fractures in the international system’s balance of power within the framework of realist paradigms in both Europe and the Asia-Pacific regions. In this scenario, distancing Russia from China would represent a significant strategic gain for the United States, while also causing deep divisions within the European Union and NATO. Countries such as Germany and France may see this new situation as an opportunity to strengthen diplomatic relations with Russia, whereas Poland and the Baltic states, perceiving a direct threat, might demand NATO to adopt a more interventionist defense strategy. However, the lack of US support for such demands would weaken NATO’s internal cohesion and call into question the alliance’s effectiveness. The Trump administration’s implication that the US might act independently of NATO’s collective decisions during this process could create a critical breaking point for the alliance’s resilience.
In another scenario, the failure of negotiations in Ukraine and the gradual reduction of US support for Kyiv could create a greater security gap in Europe. The Trump administration’s pursuit of a policy less dependent on NATO would clearly demonstrate the US’s quest for strategic autonomy.
With its recent collaborations, the United States’ designation of India as a “priority regional partner” aims to balance China in the Indo-Pacific region and achieve geopolitical superiority by distancing Russia from China. This strategy demonstrates the United States’ shift in global security policies toward the Indo-Pacific region, with a tendency to act independently of NATO’s collective decision-making mechanisms. The United States’ negotiation process with Russia could provide Moscow with an opportunity to ease economic sanctions and establish pragmatic cooperation with the West while creating deep fractures in the China-Russia strategic partnership. In this process, Russia’s positioning as a balancing power could lead to a loss of confidence for China and force it to develop a more independent defense strategy. Meanwhile, with U.S. support, India would gain a significant advantage on its path to regional hegemony, seizing the opportunity to enhance its military capabilities and defense industry in its rivalry with China.
[1] Donald J. Trump, “I just had a lengthy and highly productive phone call with President Vladimir Putin of Russia. …”, Truth Social, https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113991956474899296, (Access Date: 15.02.2025).
[2] Bernd Debusmann Jr ve Mike Wendling, “Ukraine War Talks Start Now, Trump Says After Putin Call”, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c04n622gzx7o, (Access Date: 15.02.2025).
[3] Alexander Smith ve Alexandra Marquez, “Zelenskyy: ‘Very Difficult’ for Ukraine to Survive Without U.S. Military Support”, NBC News, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/zelenskyy-difficult-ukraine-survive-us-military-support-rcna192196, (Access Date: 15.02.2025).
[4] Ken Bredemeier, “Zelenskyy Rejects Bilateral US-Russia Pact to End Moscow’s War Against Ukraine”, VOA News, https://www.voanews.com/a/zelenskyy-rejects-bilateral-us-russia-pact-to-end-moscow-s-war-against-ukraine-/7973916.html, (Access Date: 15.02.2025).
[5] “Bloomberg: Vstrecha Puthina i Trampa Mojet Sostoyasya v Kontse”, TASS, https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/23152155, (Access Date: 15.02.2025).
[6] “United States – India Joint Leaders Statement”, U.S. Embassy & Consulates in India, https://in.usembassy.gov/united-states-india-joint-leaders-statement, (Access Date: 15.02.2025).
