According to a New York Times report[i] dated August 20, 2024 U.S. President Joe Biden has approved the country’s nuclear strategy to prepare for potential coordinated nuclear conflicts with Russia, China, and North Korea.
White House Spokesperson Sean Savett stated that the plan was approved earlier this year by the U.S. President and is not a response to a single country or threat. He added, “Although the specific text of the guideline is classified, its existence is in no way hidden. The guideline, published earlier this year, is not a response to any particular organization, country, or threat.”[ii]
According to the Times report, the deterrence policy takes into account the rapid growth of China’s nuclear arsenal, which is expected to rival the size and diversity of U.S. and Russian stockpiles within the next decade. This comes at a time when Russian President Vladimir Putin has made threats to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.[iii]
Nuclear weapons played a critical role in triggering the Cold War and forming two opposing blocs after World War II. While the U.S. implemented the Massive Retaliation Strategy, which advocated responding to a Soviet attack with nuclear weapons, this strategy lost its effectiveness by the late 1950s due to the increase in Soviet nuclear capabilities.
The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) was enacted in 1970 with the aim of preventing the spread of nuclear weapons, promoting cooperation in the peaceful use of nuclear energy, and achieving nuclear disarmament. The treaty was extended indefinitely in 1995.
As a confidence-building measure among states, the treaty establishes a safeguard system under the responsibility of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). These safeguards are used to verify compliance with the treaty through inspections conducted by the IAEA. The treaty also promotes cooperation and equal access to peaceful nuclear technology.[iv]
In 1955, China made a strategic decision to develop its atomic energy industry, marking the birth of its nuclear industry. Over the past 65 years, China’s nuclear industry has made significant breakthroughs from scratch and achieved major milestones independently.[v]
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists estimates that China currently possesses approximately 500 nuclear warheads, and experts believe this number will rapidly increase in the coming years. A 2023 Pentagon report claims that China’s operational nuclear arsenal has seen significant growth under President Xi Jinping’s leadership, forecasting an arsenal of over 1,000 warheads by 2030.[vi]
Thus, the U.S.’ nuclear strategic move aims not only to maintain global deterrence but also to balance the nuclear capabilities of Russia, North Korea, and China. According to Western claims, China seeks to establish a balance against the U.S. and Russia in the nuclear arena. The U.S. Department of Defense believes that within the next decade, China’s nuclear arsenal will be comparable in size and diversity to that of the U.S. and Russia.[vii]
In conclusion, Biden’s decision on nuclear strategy indicates that the world is witnessing an escalation in nuclear tensions. The production of nuclear weapons for deterrence purposes still carries the risk of leading to conflict in the future. The increase in nuclear power by countries competing economically and militarily could serve as a balancing factor in a non-conflict situation. It can be said that the U.S. is ready to use its nuclear capabilities as a deterrent in the context of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War, the conflicts in Gaza, and tensions in Taiwan. However, these steps may further provoke Russia and China and contribute to the spread of Cold War mentality.
[i] “Biden Approved Secret Nuclear Strategy Refocusing on Chinese Threat”, NYTimes, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/20/us/politics/biden-nuclear-china-russia.html, (Access Date: 21.08.2024).
[ii] “Biden Approves Nuclear Strategy Refocusing on China Threat” The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/20/biden-nuclear-strategy-china-threat, (Access Date: 21.08.2024).
[iii] Ibid.
[iv] “Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs, https://disarmament.unoda.org/wmd/nuclear/npt/, (Access Date: 23.08.2024).
[v] “65年前的今天 他们开始研制原子弹、氢弹、核潜艇”, 人民网、https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1655796004473903658&wfr=spider&for=pc, (Access Date: 23.08.2024).
[vi] “Understanding China’s Growing Nuclear Arsenal” The Cipher Brief, https://www.thecipherbrief.com/chinas-nuclear-weapons, (Access Date: 23.08.2024)
[vii] “拜登批准机密核战略，首次重点聚焦中国”, 金融界、https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1807982366432845608&wfr=spider&for=pc, (Access Date: 23.08.2024).
