The “2024 Arctic Strategy” prepared by the United States of America (USA) Department of Defense, which is stated to be an updated version of the 2019 version, was published on June 21, 2024.[i] The strategy consists of five parts: executive summary, US defense interests in the Arctic, strategic environment, defense approach to deal with new challenges, and conclusion
The executive summary states that climate change and changes in the geostrategic environment have created the need for a new strategic approach to the Arctic region. The strategy, which sets out the US Department of Defense’s policy for the Arctic, is aligned with the 2022 National Security Strategy (NSS), the 2022 National Defense Strategy (NDS), and the 2022 National Strategy for the Arctic Region (NSAR), and will strengthen the ability to manage risk to US interests in the Arctic effectively.
In the second chapter, the North American Arctic is defined as “the region comprising the sovereign territories of NATO Allies, including the northern approaches to the homeland, the sovereign US territories in Alaska, and the sovereign territories of Canada and the autonomous territory of the Kingdom of Denmark, Greenland”, and its vital importance for the projection of power to Europe and the defense of the Atlantic Sea lines of communication between North America and Europe.
Noting that the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), including increased cooperation between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia in the Arctic, and the growing effects of climate change are heralding a new and more dynamic Arctic security environment, the third chapter is divided into five sections: PRC activities in the Arctic, Russian activities in the Arctic, PRC-Russian cooperation, changing the security architecture, and the effects of climate change on the operational space.
The first section notes that the PRC is seeking to capitalize on changing dynamics to gain greater influence and access, exploit Arctic resources, and play a greater role in regional governance, with three icebreaking vessels conducting activities in the region, enabling civil/military research efforts.
In the second part, it is noted that the Arctic has become Russia’s second priority region after its “near abroad”, which includes regions such as Ukraine, Belarus and independent Eastern European states,[ii] while it continues to renovate Soviet-era facilities and military infrastructure in the region.[iii] It is also emphasized that Russia’s capabilities in the region threaten the ability of the United States to project power to Europe and the Indo-Pacific region and will limit its ability to respond to potential crises.
On Russia-PRC cooperation, it is noted that the alarming alignment between the two countries continues to be monitored and that Russia is increasingly strengthening its ties with China to finance oil and gas extraction activities and energy export infrastructure. In addition, it is assessed that the PRC may increase its presence in the Arctic in the future with the joint military exercises in the Arctic[iv] and the memorandum of understanding[v] they signed on comprehensive cooperation in maritime security issues (combating terrorism, illegal migration, drug and arms trafficking, preventing illegal fishing, etc.) in the Barents Sea and Arctic waters.
In the section on security architecture change, it is highlighted that with the membership of Finland and Sweden, seven of the eight members of the Arctic Council are now NATO members, and that this expansion will create new opportunities for information sharing and exercises that will increase Nordic defense cooperation as well as expand regional cooperation.
In the last part of the third section titled “the effects of climate change on the theater of operations”, it is stated that the Arctic may experience its first ice-free summer by 2030 and Arctic routes will increase access to undersea resources, and in this context, the US should be ready and equipped to mitigate the risks of these changes.
In the fourth chapter, “A defense approach to deal with new challenges”, the means to achieve the ultimate goal of “maintaining the Arctic as a stable region where the US homeland remains secure and vital national interests are protected, in cooperation with allies and partners” are discussed under the headings of “enhance, engage, and exercise”.
The first of these, “enhance”, emphasizes the importance of developing an understanding of the Arctic operational environment and risk management capability; “engage” emphasizes the importance of collaborating with Allies, Partners, local authorities, tribes/communities and industry in Alaska; and “exercises” emphasizes the importance of developing interoperability both independently and by training with Allies and Partners and establishing a presence in the Arctic.
The strategy concludes that as the Arctic security environment evolves, it is essential to be prepared to protect U.S. national interests in the region, and that the strategy will guide and support government efforts to maintain security and stability in the Arctic and beyond by ensuring that U.S. Allies and Partners act in harmony.
When the strategy is considered in general, it is seen that there is a serious R&D and investment plan for issues such as satellites providing coverage in the Arctic, unmanned platforms to improve intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities, and the infrastructure required for this, especially the capabilities within the scope of the US-Canada North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD). This shows that all necessary means will be provided for the early warning and close monitoring of activities such as the flight activities of the joint patrol of nuclear-capable strategic bombers of Russia and the PRC, which was intercepted by US-Canadian jets on July 26, 2024, near Alaska in the North Pacific and Arctic regions.[vi] While NORAD has stated that this activity does not pose an immediate threat to North America, the fact that this is the first time that strategic bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons have flown together and so close to North American airspace demonstrates the validity of the strategy.
The priority given to NATO in terms of cooperation is demonstrated by the reference to the fact that the strategy of increased information sharing and deepened cooperation with the accession of Finland and Sweden to the Alliance is supported by the “NATO’s Deterrence and Defense Concept for the Euro-Atlantic Region” approved in 2021[vii] and the “Northwest Regional Plan” covering the defense of the North Atlantic and the European Arctic. The bloc’s largest exercise since the Cold War, “Exercise Steadfast Defender 2024”, was in this sense a concrete demonstration of US cooperation with NATO in this area, testing the allies’ capacity to secure the Atlantic against Russian advances from the Arctic. The strategy stated that the exercise improved the ability to rapidly deploy anywhere in the Arctic region and created the opportunity to test equipment in Arctic conditions, and that Allies and Partners would continue to conduct such exercises.
Considering that the Northern Sea Route (NSR) has become increasingly important as a link to Asian markets that Russia needs to balance Western sanctions with the sanctions imposed after the war with Ukraine, it is foreseeable that the number and scale of US-backed NATO exercises will increase every year in response to Russia’s April 2023 exercise [viii] with the participation of Northern Fleet elements, which sent a message of determination to secure the sea lanes.
It is assessed that the US will share the responsibility for the Arctic, which is considered to be the US’s priority after the Pacific, with Canada and other Scandinavian members of NATO, namely Norway, Sweden, Finland and Denmark, and that the UK, whose flights over the Black Sea have recently been intercepted by Russian jets, will also support the activities in the region, but if such engagements continue to increase in the future, the risk of hot conflict will increase.
To conclude, the Arctic region, where 80% of Russia’s natural gas and 17% of its oil production takes place,[ix] has become a high priority for Russia to protect its interests along the Northern Sea Route (NSR), and it is expected that Russia, which retains its nuclear deterrence capability with its bases/elements in the Kola Peninsula, will respond to the efforts of the US, which is aware of the situation, to have a say in the region with the strategy in question.
[i] “DoD Announces Publication of 2024 Arctic Strategy”, US Department of Defense, https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3846206/dod-announces-publication-of-2024-arctic-strategy/, (Date of Access: 25.07.2024).
[ii] Novak, D., “Russia’s “Near Abroad”, USA Gov Policy, https://www.usagovpolicy.com/russias-near-abroad/, (Date of Access: 25.07.2024).
[iii] Delanoë, I., “The Russian Navy and the Arctic: A New Reality, Old Challenges”, Network for Strategic Analysis, https://ras-nsa.ca/the-russian-navy-and-the-arctic-a-new-reality-old-challenges/, (Date of Access: 25.07.2024).
[iv] “China and Russia Conduct Joint Naval Operation Near Alaska, Prompting US Response”, Medium, https://t.ly/6-RZP, (Date of Access: 25.07.2024).
[v] “FSB signs maritime security cooperation with China in Murmansk”, The Barents Observer, https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2023/04/fsb-signs-maritime-security-cooperation-china-murmansk, (Date of Access: 26.07.2024).
[vi] Volkov, A., “Russia and China Conduct Joint Bomber Patrol Near Alaska, Prompting US and Canadian Response”, Publicist Journalist, https://publicistjournalist.com/russia-and-china-conduct-joint-bomber-patrol-near-alaska-prompting-us-and-canadian-response/, (Date of Access: 26.07.2024).
[vii] Ryan K., “NATO’s Concept for Deterrence and Defence of the Euro-Atlantic Area (DDA)”, Belfer Center, https://t.ly/VL2rw, (Date of Access: 26.07.2024).
[viii] “China and Russia Conduct Joint Naval Operation Near Alaska, Prompting US Response”, a.g.e., (Date of Access: 26.07.2024).
[ix] Ålander, M., “High North, High Tension: The End of Arctic Illusions”, Foreign Policy Research Institute, https://www.fpri.org/article/2023/05/high-north-high-tension-the-end-of-arctic-illusions/, (Date of Access: 26.07.2024).
