The Philippines is expanding its military partnerships not only with the United States but also with regional allies, particularly Australia and Japan. At the beginning of 2023, Manila allocated four additional military bases for U.S. use. Moreover, the two countries conducted their largest “Balikatan Military Exercise” to date. The proximity of the Philippines and Japan to Taiwan positions these nations as critical players in the U.S. strategy to contain China. The Philippines, in particular, could be used by the U.S. as a forward deployment base in the event of a potential military conflict in the South China Sea. Given that the U.S., located across the ocean, might be delayed in intervening in a possible conflict in Taiwan, regional allies such as the Philippines, Japan, and Australia would bear the brunt of the consequences.
The Manila administration is concerned about the potential for a crisis in Taiwan, which could drag the Philippines into a war. This concern was explicitly expressed by Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos[i]. Acknowledging that it would suffer the most damage in such a conflict, the Philippines is strengthening its military partnerships with the United States. However, it is also evident that Manila is focusing on cooperation with Australia and Japan, rather than solely aligning itself with the U.S. This indicates that a regional solidarity is being formed, even in the absence of the United States.
The Philippines has recently shown increasing interest in Australia as a way to mitigate the risks of a potential conflict involving Taiwan. It seems that Australia, Japan, and the Philippines, recognizing that they would be the most affected in the event of a war, are focusing on developing a regional cooperation and solidarity process that does not rely solely on the United States. In this context, Australia is not only showing growing interest in the Philippines but also in Japan.
As the United States accelerates its strategy to encircle China, the number of bilateral, trilateral, and quadrilateral dialogue mechanisms in the region is also increasing. Asia-Pacific countries are concerned about China’s growing regional influence, and Western nations, particularly the U.S., have played a significant role in fueling these fears. On the other hand, Southeast Asian countries have greatly benefited from the investments made by China under the Belt and Road Initiative. Despite the ongoing maritime sovereignty disputes in the South China Sea between Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei, and China, the relations between the regional states and Beijing are generally positive.
Recently, the United States’ increased support for Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the Philippines has greatly unsettled China. Beijing claims that Washington is provoking these countries. According to this view, the U.S. is attempting to drive a wedge between the Philippines and China. Indeed, there is a security agreement between the Philippines and the U.S. Under the 1951 treaty, the U.S. could provide military assistance if the Philippines were to face any attack in the South China Sea.
In recent months, the United States and China have focused on strengthening consultation mechanisms to prevent a crisis in the region. Regional countries are also taking similar steps. For example, the Philippines has announced that it will establish a new communication line with China to reduce tensions at sea.
China appears to be seeking to improve relations with the Philippines and reduce tensions. In short, both the Philippines and China have shown mutual goodwill and efforts to come closer together. Both sides are willing to enhance dialogue. The current situation is pushing the two countries towards rapprochement because, while the U.S. attempts to stoke potential crises, it is the regional states that will suffer the most. As the threat of conflict looms, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines have started looking for ways to reconcile with China and de-escalate tensions. Meanwhile, China is trying to show that the U.S. is dragging them into a crisis.
The Philippines, relying on Western support, is steering towards a dangerous polarization policy against China. The Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea can be seen as crises artificially inflated by the U.S. Taiwan’s close proximity to the Philippines positions Manila as a crucial player in the West’s strategy to encircle Beijing. The U.S. is attempting to deter China by asserting that it will protect the Philippines to the fullest extent.
While the U.S. tries to fuel potential crises in Southeast Asia, it is the regional states that suffer the most. Therefore, it is a crucial strategy for the Philippines to always keep the door open for dialogue with China in order to preemptively address these dangers. Regional allies of the U.S. are aware of the importance of maintaining dialogue with China. Until recently, the Philippines has made efforts to remain outside the U.S.-China rivalry. However, it has increasingly moved away from this balance. It does not seem like a rational choice for the Philippines, which is disengaging from the Belt and Road Initiative, to fully oppose China. However, it should not be forgotten that states often struggle to make rational decisions, especially during crises. It is nearly impossible for the West to fill China’s economic and investment void in the Philippines. Thus, Manila, Tokyo, and Canberra might find themselves alone against Beijing, similar to how the West initially supported Ukraine and then left it isolated in the midst of the conflict.
[i] “Marcos Says Philippines Bases Could Be ‘Useful’ If Taiwan Attacked”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/marcos-says-philippines-bases-could-be-useful-if-taiwan-attacked-2023-05-05/, (Date of Access: 19.03.2024).
