United States (US)-Cuba relations have been in constant flux since Fidel Castro’s revolutionary rise to power in 1959. This relationship, inherited from the ideological tensions of the Cold War, has been shaped by trade embargoes and diplomatic ruptures since 1962. Under Barack Obama, however, there has been a significant transformation. Obama resumed diplomatic relations with Cuba and opened the door to closer cooperation between the two countries. However, the progress made during this period was largely reversed during Donald Trump’s presidency. Trump criticized Obama’s détente policies and brought harsh sanctions against Cuba back to the agenda. While the economic and political consequences of these policies have been severe for Cuba, the ties between the two countries have been strained during this period.
Trump has implemented a series of tough policies towards Cuba during his presidency. In 2017, with the signing of the National Security Presidential Memorandum, he put a stricter framework on US policy towards Cuba. Accordingly, American citizens are banned from doing business with state-controlled enterprises in Cuba. Restrictions were imposed on Cuban tobacco and alcohol products. In addition, tourism travel has been restricted, making individual visits almost impossible. In 2021, Trump re-added Cuba to the list of “countries that support terrorism”, justifying this by Cuba’s support for the Maduro regime in Venezuela.[1] All these sanctions have further strained Cuba’s already weak economy and had a profound impact on the population.
Joe Biden has adopted an approach that aims to partially soften these harsh policies of the Trump era. Biden tried to revitalize economic relations between the two countries by removing Cuba from the list of “countries supporting terrorism”. It also lifted restrictions on money transfers imposed by the Trump administration and liberalized the flow of financial aid to families. In addition, the US has expedited visa processing, making it easier for Cubans to reunite with their families in the US.
The Biden administration also worked in cooperation with the Vatican to encourage the Cuban government to release political prisoners. As a result of these diplomatic efforts, Cuba has announced the release of more than 500 political prisoners.[2] However, Biden’s steps were criticized by both Democrats and Republicans. Criticisms have focused on the fact that such détente policies ignore Cuba’s human rights violations.
With Trump’s re-election to the presidency on January 20, 2025, he is expected to return to his harsh policies towards Cuba. During the 2024 election campaign and in previous periods, Trump’s harsh stance against Cuba policies has attracted attention. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has taken a parallel stance with Trump on this issue, arguing that economic pressure is the most effective way to promote a democratic transformation in Cuba.[3] Accordingly, the Trump administration is expected to add Cuba back to the list of “countries supporting terrorism” and reimpose restrictions on money transfers and travel.
However, Trump’s policies could further increase the current economic burden on the Cuban people. Cuba faces serious shortages of basic necessities such as food, medicine and energy. If Trump’s harsh policies exacerbate this situation, Cuba is likely to see mass migratory movements. This could affect not only Cuba, but also the migration crisis on the US-Mexico border.
It is anticipated that serious problems may arise in Cuba in areas other than the economy and migration issues under the Trump era. The Trump administration’s potential pincer policy could make it difficult for Cuba to use foreign policy tools such as health diplomacy. For example, Cuba’s vaccines or the role of its medical personnel in international aid could be blocked. Moreover, diplomatic pressure could weaken Cuba’s position in regional and international organizations. This could further isolate Cuba and expose the country’s human rights record or policies towards dissidents to harsher international criticism.
An escalation in US-Cuba relations could severely damage Cuba’s tourism sector. The Trump administration has imposed strict sanctions in the past, restricting US citizens’ travel to Cuba and making it difficult for US companies to trade with Cuba. The reintroduction of such policies could have a major impact on Cuba’s tourism revenues. Although the number of tourists from countries such as Europe and Canada may increase, it may not be enough to compensate for the losses from the United States.
The re-implementation of Trump-era policies may also pose other problems for international travel. In particular, individuals entering Cuba through third countries and then planning to travel to the United States may again be concerned about being turned back at border crossings, as happened during Trump’s previous presidency. Beyond tourism, this could create a new challenge to international freedom of movement.
Strained relations with the United States could lead Cuba to seek closer ties with other countries. In particular, countries such as Russia and China could strengthen their strategic partnerships with Cuba. China could finance Cuba’s infrastructure projects, while Russia could provide support in energy and defense. In addition, relations with countries such as Venezuela and Iran are expected to deepen. The European Union, especially Spain, could offer more support to Cuba in order to stabilize the current political tensions. At the regional level, cooperation with countries such as Mexico and Argentina could be strengthened as a counter to US isolationist efforts.
The future of U.S.-Cuba relations depends not only on the political choices of leaders, but also on regional and global developments. Despite the tense history of the two countries, diplomatic efforts for a lasting solution must continue. An approach that prioritizes the interests of both peoples can create a more sustainable relationship, both economically and humanitarian. However, it is believed that there is a long way to go to achieve this goal.
[1] “Trump Administration Re-Designates Cuba as ‘State Sponsor of Terrorism’.”, CBS News, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-administration-cuba-state-sponsor-terrorism/, (Accessed Date: 01.19.2025).
[2] Garcia, Emma. “Díaz-Canel Calls Prisoner Release in Cuba a ‘Routine Practice’.”, Cuba Headlines, https://www.cubaheadlines.com/articles/295489, (Accessed Date: 01.19.2025).
[3] Jaffe, Alexandra. “Rubio and Paul Spar over Cuba”, CNN, https://edition.cnn.com/2014/12/19/politics/paul-rubio-cuba/index.html, (Accessed Date: 01.19.2025).
