The geopolitical struggle between the United States (US) and Russia in the South Caucasus has been reshaping regional balances, with Armenia’s efforts to align with the West drawing significant attention. Notably, the US-Armenia Strategic Partnership Commission Charter, signed on January 14, 2025, has brought regional power struggles to a new dimension. Armenia’s distancing from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and its deepening relations with the US signal a second wave of Color Revolutions in the South Caucasus. In this context, the US strategy to increase its influence in the region through Armenia and Moscow’s responses to these moves have become key factors in determining the long-term stability of the region.
The US-Armenia Strategic Partnership Commission Charter, signed in Washington on January 14, 2025, by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, transformed the bilateral relations into a strategic partnership. The agreement aims to foster cooperation in various areas, including the economy, energy, defense, security, strengthening democratic institutions, promoting the rule of law and justice, and enhancing people-to-people ties. Blinken described the charter as “a framework for deeper cooperation built on shared interests,” while Foreign Minister Mirzoyan characterized it as “a demonstration of US support for Armenia’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.” In this regard, Armenia’s initiation of negotiations on the 123 Agreement with the US regarding the peaceful use of nuclear energy and its participation in North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) exercises have been viewed as part of the country’s efforts to diversify its security policies. This charter has been regarded as a step toward deepening Armenia-US relations in pursuit of a more stable peace in the South Caucasus.[1]
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s announcement that Armenia’s CSTO membership has been “effectively frozen” and the decision to transfer control points on the Armenia-Iran border to the Armenian National Security Service are clear indicators of a shift in the country’s security and foreign policy direction. Prime Minister Pashinyan stated that the CSTO failed to meet Armenia’s security needs, particularly during the crises of 2021-2022, and did not provide an effective solution.[2] In this context, Armenia’s procurement of weapons from India and participation in joint exercises with the US and NATO are seen as part of its efforts to diversify security policies and integrate with the West.
On the other hand, the withdrawal of Russian border guards from the Armenia-Iran border represents another significant step in Armenia’s pursuit of regional independence. Deputy Chairman of the Civil Contract Party, Vahagn Aleksanyan, noted that the border arrangements strengthen Armenia’s sovereign rights, while the weakening of Russia’s influence in the region has led to tensions in relations with Moscow. These developments indicate a period in which Armenia’s inclination to align with the West in its foreign policy is accelerating.[3]
On January 15, 2025, during a press conference held in Yerevan, Armenian Defense Minister Suren Papikyan announced that the reform process of the Armenian Armed Forces continues with the support of the United States and France. Minister Papikyan stated, “Within the framework of Armenian-American cooperation, exercises, consultations, and reforms in the sergeant system are being carried out. We are satisfied with the cooperation: the pace is good, the dynamism is good. We hope this cooperation will deepen further.” He also noted that cooperation with France is developing along similar lines, adding that while details regarding military training remain limited, efforts are being made to overcome language barriers. These reforms demonstrate Armenia’s strengthening integration process with the West in the field of defense. In particular, the provision of military consultancy by the US and its leadership in joint exercises reflect Armenia’s strategy to reinforce its security ties with the West.[4]
The strategic partnership document signed between the US and Armenia has been interpreted as Washington’s move to expand cooperation with Yerevan. Antony Blinken’s emphasis that this agreement will deepen relations in key areas such as “economy, security, defense, democracy, and international cooperation” clearly reveals the US’s growing pursuit of influence in the South Caucasus. However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov criticized these developments as Western intervention in the region, describing them as “interventions carried out without understanding local traditions and the historical context.”[5] Lavrov’s statement that “regional issues should be resolved with neighboring countries such as Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Iran” reflects Moscow’s cautious approach to the process and its discomfort with Armenia’s turn towards the West.[6]
In the ongoing process of shifting roles in the American-Russian struggle for hegemony in the South Caucasus, Russia’s recent offer by President Vladimir Putin to mediate in resolving the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, followed by Russian-Armenian diplomatic talks in Moscow and the subsequent withdrawal of Russian forces from the region, has drawn attention. Following these developments, during the border demarcation meeting between Azerbaijan and Armenia held on January 16, 2025, it was decided that the border line would extend from the north to the Iranian border. In the meeting, draft documents outlining the procedures for the demarcation process were reviewed, and the parties agreed to determine the date and location of the next meeting within the working schedule.[7]
Following Georgia’s efforts to moderate public opinion within the framework of a policy of balance and “zero problems with neighbors” rather than radical pro-Western alignment, relations between the West and Georgia have become strained. Meanwhile, Armenia’s foreign policy reorientation has accelerated within the framework of the US-Armenia Strategic Partnership Commission Charter and increased military cooperation with NATO, resulting in a shift in the geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus. This has led to the emergence of an Armenian government increasingly distancing itself from Russia and moving closer to the US-centered West, while the Georgian government is preparing for negotiations with Russia while maintaining a strategic balance with the West. This situation indicates a role change in the South Caucasus.
The documents signed between Armenia and the United States, while encompassing defense reforms and the goal of compatibility with Western armies, do not provide concrete security guarantees or direct military support; rather, they offer a diplomatic framework. The pro-Western policies pursued by Armenia under Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan evoke the influence of Color Revolutions, such as the Rose Revolution in Georgia and the Orange Revolution in Ukraine. However, as evidenced by events following these revolutions—such as Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, the Russia-Ukraine War that began in 2022, and the 2008 Russia-Georgia War—U.S. strategic partnership policies have often been criticized for remaining largely theoretical and for generating chaos rather than regional stability. In this context, despite Armenia’s growing cooperation with the West, the absence of concrete security guarantees has led to a foreign policy orientation that strains regional balances. The U.S. approach of using countries like Armenia as strategic instruments against Russia has become increasingly apparent in this process.
The growing influence of the U.S. in the South Caucasus is altering the regional balance of power while posing a threat to Russia’s traditional influence. The de facto suspension of Armenia’s CSTO membership, the withdrawal of Russian troops from border areas, and Armenia’s pursuit of integration with the West may necessitate new adjustments in Moscow’s regional security strategies. However, this situation has further complicated Armenia’s geopolitical position and made its quest for regional stability more challenging. In summary, Armenia’s rapprochement with the West points to the foreign policy choices of a country caught between Moscow’s reactions and Washington’s strategic objectives.
The U.S. steps to increase its influence in the South Caucasus through Armenia will further weaken Russia’s traditional regional influence. Moscow is likely to deepen its cooperation with Azerbaijan and Iran in an effort to counterbalance the U.S. presence in the region. This dynamic may lead to a sharper geopolitical division in the South Caucasus, creating a stage for clashes between U.S. and Russian regional interests. Such competition could exacerbate instability in the region and leave Armenia trapped in a precarious position between Washington and Moscow.
The U.S. may seek to develop a more comprehensive strategy for the South Caucasus by establishing a cooperation model between Georgia and Armenia. Given the stagnation in Georgia’s relations with the West, the U.S. might aim to revitalize NATO and EU relations through Armenia while simultaneously supporting Georgia’s balancing policy. This approach would allow the U.S. to limit Chinese and Russian influence in the region while strengthening its own geopolitical objectives. However, despite Georgia’s efforts to balance Western and Russian influence, China’s commercial and logistical power, as well as its strategic position in the region, remain a priority for Georgia. In this context, the anti-China policies pursued during the Trump administration may have contributed to Georgia’s distancing from the U.S. Consequently, to maintain its influence in the South Caucasus, the U.S. continues to pursue a strategy of increasing its influence through Armenia, which can be seen as a potential fourth phase of the Color Revolutions.
[1] “Secretary Antony J. Blinken and Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan at a Strategic Partnership Commission Charter Signing Ceremony”, U.S. Department of State, https://www.state.gov/office-of-the-spokesperson/releases/2025/01/secretary-antony-j-blinken-and-armenian-foreign-minister-ararat-mirzoyan-at-a-strategic-partnership-commission-charter-signing-ceremony, (Access Date: 17.01.2025).
[2] “Armenia Freezes Participation in Russia-led Security Bloc – Prime Minister”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/armenia-freezes-participation-russia-led-security-bloc-prime-minister-2024-02-23, (Access Date: 17.01.2025).
[3] Ruzanna Stepanyan, “Rrus Sahmanapahnery Herranum Yen Iran-Hayastan Hskich-Sahmanayin Ketits”, Azatutyun, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/rousnery-heranoum-en-iran-hayastan-hskich-sahmanayin-ketits/33151257.html, (Access Date: 17.01.2025).
[4] “V Armenii Zayavili o Pomoshchi SSHA i Frantsii v Reformakh Armyanskoy Armii”, TASS, https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/22888101, (Access Date: 17.01.2025).
[5] “SSHA i Armeniya Podpisali Dokument o Strategicheskom Partnerstve”, TASS, https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/22880383, (Access Date: 17.01.2025).
[6] “Lavrov Prizval Armeniyu Reshat Problemy s Sosedyami”, TASS, https://tass.ru/politika/22876365, (Access Date: 17.01.2025).
[7] “Soobshcheniye Dlya SMI po itogam Odinnadtsatoy Vstrechi Gosudarstvennoy Komissii po Delimitatsii Gosudarstvennoy Granitsy…”, Azertac, https://l24.im/rPmnA, (Access Date: 17.01.2025).
