As both permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and the world’s two largest economies, the relationship between China and the United States (U.S.) holds significant implications for global security and stability. The contemporary characteristics of a multipolar world, economic globalization, and increasing cultural diversity have amplified the importance and impact of U.S.-China relations. This dynamic affects not only the prosperity of their respective populations but also global welfare across various domains, including economics, politics, society, and culture, thereby playing a critical role in ensuring world peace and development. [1]
With Donald Trump’s re-election, it is anticipated that economic competition between the U.S. and China will persist, along with notable shifts in global security dynamics. Trump’s explicit support for Taiwan could escalate tensions with China, leading to intensified military activities in the region and jeopardizing regional security. On the other hand, Trump’s expected isolationist stance toward international organizations may create space for China to accelerate its multilateral collaborations, intensifying the global power struggle between the two nations.
In U.S. politics, the president and their advisors significantly influence the formation of foreign policy. For instance, during Trump’s first term, his National Security Advisor, John Bolton, regarded China’s economic and military advancements as a direct threat to the U.S., advocating for preventive measures. This perspective led to the adoption of stricter policies against China, which have continued to shape U.S. strategies. Examples include imposing high tariffs on what were perceived as China’s unfair trade practices, restricting Huawei’s software sales, increasing arms sales to Taiwan, and enhancing security cooperation with India, Japan, and Australia as part of a broader containment policy.
In 2018, Trump also launched the controversial “China Initiative” as part of his national security strategy. This counter-espionage measure targeted Chinese academics and researchers working in the U.S., granting the Department of Justice authority to investigate and prosecute individuals allegedly transferring technology contrary to U.S. interests. This initiative, seen as a response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, aimed to curtail China’s growing economic influence but was discontinued in 2022 under the Biden administration due to criticism of racial profiling and discrimination. [2]
Under Joe Biden, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan adopted a more strategic approach to managing U.S.-China competition, focusing on balanced policies and cooperation on critical issues. As Trump’s potential second-term National Security Advisor remains uncertain, figures like Robert O’Brien, who previously served as Trump’s chief mediator and National Security Advisor, are considered strong candidates. [3] O’Brien is known for his traditionalist foreign policy perspective, which could influence the U.S. approach to China significantly. [4]
If Trump returns to office, it is likely that the rivalry with China will persist, coupled with the weakening of U.S. alliances due to his “America First” policy. Meanwhile, China’s continued economic development and multilateral partnerships suggest that it will be prepared to counter U.S. strategies. The choice of National Security Advisor, a pivotal role in shaping U.S. foreign policy, will thus be crucial in determining the stance toward China. This is especially pertinent to the Taiwan issue, as China has grown stronger economically and militarily since Trump’s first term.
The U.S. and European Union’s sanctions against Russia in response to the Ukraine crisis, which led to increased energy costs for European nations, exemplify the potential repercussions of radical decisions. Similarly, a drastic U.S. policy on Taiwan could backfire and isolate Washington. Opting for reconciliation over confrontation with China would be a prudent strategy. While the U.S. claims to support the “One China” policy, its increasing arms sales to Taiwan complicate the issue.
In conclusion, U.S. foreign policy is shaped not only by the president but also by their advisors. Whether Trump’s second term will witness a continuation or alteration of his prior radical policies, and the approach his National Security Advisor will adopt, remains to be seen. In a multipolar world led by powers such as Russia and China, the strategies employed by a Trump administration would have profound implications for global peace and security.
[1] “Keep to the right direction of China-US ties”, Global Times, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202411/1322695.shtml, (Date Accession: 10.11.2024).
[2] “Trump Wins the 2024 Presidental Election: Implications for China”, China Briefing, https://www.china-briefing.com/news/trump-china-us-relations-2024-election-victory-implications-businesses/, (Date Accession: 10.11.2024).
[3] “Trump’s second-term Cabinet: Here’s who may fill key roles”, The Hill, https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4979519-trumps-second-term-cabinet-heres-who-may-fill-key-roles/, (Date Accession: 10.11.2024).
[4] “Here’s Who Could Join Donald Trump’s New Administration Team”, NDTV, https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/heres-who-could-join-trumps-new-administration-team-6970848, (Date Accession: 10.11.2024).
