As global power balances are being reshaped around the Ukraine Crisis, the geopolitical rivalry between the United States (US), Russia, the European Union (EU), and China has reached a more complex dimension. The US policy on Ukraine has been interpreted not merely as an effort to manage a regional conflict but as a strategic maneuver aimed at redesigning the Western alliance in line with its own interests.
As the EU’s position in the international system weakens, direct negotiations between Russia and the US have deepened divisions within the West. This situation has prompted China to strengthen its relations with Europe. In this context, the economic and diplomatic measures imposed by the US on Ukraine indicate that the global order is undergoing a new transformation process.
The steps taken by the US regarding the Ukraine Crisis have triggered a process that has shaken global balances and caused serious fractures within the Western alliance. The US-Russia negotiations held in Istanbul on February 27, 2025, demonstrated that Washington preferred to engage directly with Moscow, excluding Europe. This development has revealed that the Trump administration adopted a policy that divided Western diplomacy, denied the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) traditional strategic approach, and sought to further weaken the EU’s standing in the international system through direct dialogue with Russia.
Ukraine’s cautious stance on a natural resource agreement with the US has indicated that the Kyiv administration is seeking not only economic assistance but also long-term security guarantees. However, the US, in return for the economic aid it provides, is executing a process aimed at bringing Ukraine under full control. This has further highlighted that the US is acting entirely independently of the EU in the Ukraine matter.
The Trump administration’s direct diplomacy with Russia and its exclusion of Europe have delivered a significant blow to the traditional Western alliance structure. These moves, which aim to weaken NATO’s unifying role, demonstrate that the US is distancing itself from Europe and prioritizing its own global interests. Economic pressure mechanisms, such as Washington’s imposition of a 25% tariff on European goods, have been interpreted as part of a strategy designed to further diminish the EU’s role in the global system.[1]
The declining influence of the EU on the international stage was further underscored by the vote held at the UN Security Council (UNSC) on February 24, 2025. The fact that 65 countries abstained from voting demonstrated that there is no clear global polarization on the Ukraine issue and that the EU’s diplomatic effectiveness is waning.[2] Israel’s negative vote and Hungary—a member of the EU—abstaining from the decision further illustrated Europe’s diminishing ability to act in unity.[3] The US policies during this period have dealt a significant blow to the EU’s claim of being an autonomous power center in the international system.
Moscow viewed direct negotiations with Washington as a strategic opportunity to fragment the Western alliance, and the talks held in Istanbul were interpreted as an initiative that excluded Europe while attempting to detach Russia from the West. While Washington engaged with Moscow in an effort to sideline Brussels within the international system, Russia sought to use this process to deepen internal divisions within the West. Many experts have characterized US actions in Ukraine as “neocolonial”—in other words, as a set of “new colonialist” economic agreements. Moscow, on the other hand, interpreted Washington’s actions as an attempt to advance its unilateral interests in the region. Through this diplomatic maneuver, Russia aimed to limit NATO’s eastward expansion and transform Ukraine into a neutral buffer zone, distancing it from integration with the West. Moscow, continuing its policies to secure access to the Black Sea, prioritized gaining international legitimacy through negotiations with Washington. Additionally, it considered the neutralization of Ukraine between NATO and the EU and its transformation into a landlocked “territorial state” as a likely geopolitical scenario. Meanwhile, the US aimed to shape Ukraine’s future in alignment with its own geopolitical interests by indirectly establishing a government dependent on Washington’s influence.
In this context, the negotiations between the US and Russia over Ukraine have been interpreted as a geopolitical maneuver intended to isolate China. At the Munich Security Conference, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi described Europe as “an important pole in a multipolar world” and stated that “the two sides are not rivals, but partners,” signaling Beijing’s efforts to capitalize on Western divisions and foster new collaborations with Europe.[4] The US’s direct engagement with Russia while diplomatically and economically sidelining the EU created an opening for China in Europe. Seizing the opportunity presented by the weakening US-EU alliance, Beijing sought to expand its influence across the European continent and strengthen its strategic partnerships.
The US-Russia negotiations have been assessed as a strategic maneuver aimed at fragmenting Ukraine, marginalizing the EU in favor of a US-centered approach, drawing Russia closer to its sphere of influence, and isolating China. The interpretation of US-imposed agreements on Ukraine—particularly those fostering economic dependence through rare earth elements—suggests parallels with historical geopolitical cases. When viewed through a historical lens, the current struggle over Ukraine bears similarities to the secret protocol of September 29, 1939, in which Germany and the Soviet Union divided Poland. In this regard, Ukraine has become a battleground for spheres of influence, with the US strengthening its economic and political presence in the region while pushing Russia toward a buffer-state status, detached from the EU and NATO.
This situation has led to divisions within the Western perspective, dealing a blow to the EU’s status as an international organization and initiating a process aimed at weakening the EU through economic pressure mechanisms such as the 25% tariff imposition. This new process, which rejects NATO’s traditional strategic approach, has triggered a radical US-centered transformation, leading to a lasting shift in the global balance of power. While US-Russia negotiations over Ukraine have disrupted internal Western dynamics in the global power struggle, they have also paved the way for China to seek new partnerships in Europe. These developments signal an acceleration of new blocs and intensified power rivalries in international relations.
As the economic and diplomatic maneuvers conducted by the US through Ukraine remain at the center of the global power struggle, Washington’s strategy of sidelining Europe while engaging in direct negotiations with Russia aims to establish a new balance of power. By maintaining limited cooperation with Russia, the US seeks to prevent Ukraine from falling entirely under Western control and to partially counterbalance Moscow while simultaneously restricting China’s sphere of influence. However, Washington’s tendency to bypass the EU in this process has weakened NATO’s traditional functioning and has led to the US’s global leadership being shaped primarily through economic power. The Trump administration’s escalation of economic tensions with the EU—through measures such as tariffs—could lead to a permanent rupture in US-EU relations and accelerate Europe’s pursuit of an independent role in the global system.
The most likely scenario for the West is that the EU will seek a new geopolitical orientation in response to US policies aimed at marginalizing Europe. The EU is expected to strengthen its economic autonomy policies and develop long-term strategies to reduce its dependence on the US, particularly in the field of energy independence. Washington’s exclusion of Europe from the Ukraine crisis will further fuel debates within the EU regarding NATO’s future, and with the rise of far-right parties in member states like Hungary, additional fractures within the EU are anticipated in the coming period. The US’s reduction of its commitments to European security could prompt Germany to increase its defense spending and revive the European Defense Force concept long advocated by France. Meanwhile, Russia’s post-war position in Ukraine will continue to be a decisive factor in determining whether Europe remains within NATO’s framework. Washington’s direct engagement with Moscow has created uncertainty regarding security guarantees in Europe and has deepened divisions within the EU.
In this geopolitical equation, China’s most rational move is expected to be capitalizing on the emerging vacuum in Europe and turning Western fractures to its advantage. The US-Russia negotiations have compelled Beijing to adopt a more cautious strategy in the global system. China will aim to strengthen its trade ties with the EU, securing a stronger foothold in the European market while counterbalancing US economic pressure on Europe. Efforts to expand trade and investment agreements, particularly with countries like France and Germany, are likely to intensify. In this context, China’s increasing economic and technological influence in Europe presents a high probability of leveraging divisions within the Western alliance in its favor. However, Russia’s direct negotiations with the US pose a strategic risk for China, making it likely that Beijing will take steps to maintain its relations with Moscow and prevent Russia from fully reconciling with the West. Ultimately, the US policy of marginalizing Europe while engaging in direct negotiations with Russia is expected to bring about long-term shifts in global power balances—whether permanent or temporary—while simultaneously creating an opportunity for China to expand its influence in Europe.
[1] “Tramp Prodlil Deystviye Sanktsiy v Otnoshenii Rossii”, TASS, https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/23265255, (Access Date: 28.02.2025).
[2] “Resolution Adopted by the General Assembly on 23 February 2023”, United Nations General Assembly, https://docs.un.org/en/a/RES/ES-11/6, (Access Date: 28.02.2025).
[3] “UN General Assembly ADOPTS Resolution…”, UN News – X, https://x.com/UN_News_Centre/status/1894064279902437688, (Access Date: 28.02.2025).
[4] “A Steadfast Constructive Force in a Changing World”, Ministry of Foreign Affairs The People’s Republic of China, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/wjbzhd/202502/t20250215_11555665.html, (Access Date: 28.02.2025).
