After the Russia-Ukraine War that started on February 24, 2022, direct contact was established between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky for the first time, and the leaders held a phone conversation that lasted for about an hour on April 26, 2023.[1] It is obvious that the aforementioned meeting has increased the expectations that China can mediate in the Russia-Ukraine War in order to reach a ceasefire.
As a matter of fact, it can be stated that the contact between the parties was positive. For this reason, Zelensky, who made a statement on the subject from his official account on the social media site Twitter, used the following statements:[2]
“I had a long and meaningful phone call with President Xi Jinping. I believe that this call and the appointment of Ukraine’s Ambassador to China will give a strong impetus to the development of our bilateral relations.”
The above words of the President of Ukraine are very important in that they indicate that diplomatic contacts on the Beijing-Kiev line will increase. Because, although China has expressed on various platforms that it wants the war to end as soon as possible, it is accused of preparing to provide military ammunition support to Russia by some actors, especially the United States of America (USA) and England, who want the war to prolong.[3]
Despite the aforementioned allegations, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China has clearly expressed its stance on two issues in the twelve-point statement published on February 24, 2023, on the occasion of the first anniversary of the war, and in which Beijing revealed its approach to the Russia-Ukraine War. The first of these is the support given to the territorial integrities and sovereignties of the states, which is emphasized in the first article of the declaration. It can be argued that this clause was disappointing in Moscow and meant that Kiev was justified by Chinese decision makers. The second issue is the criticisms directed at unilateral sanctions within the articles in the declaration. This can be considered as a criticism of the sanctions that aim to isolate Russia from the international community.[4]
As can be expected, the aforementioned declaration increased the expectations that the Beijing administration could act as a mediator between Moscow and Kiev. As a matter of fact, on March 20-22, 2023, Xi visited Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the relations between the two countries and the situation of the war in Ukraine. This has enabled China to cross an important threshold in terms of diplomacy carried out with the aim of achieving a ceasefire between Moscow and Kiev. In the ongoing process, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, who is the next term president of the European Union (EU), visited Beijing on March 30, 2023, and during the visit, the outcome of the war in Ukraine as well as EU-China relations were discussed. On 5-7 April 2023, the President of the EU Commission Ursula von der Leyen and the President of France Emmanuel Macron visited China and similar issues were also discussed.
All these developments have revealed that the expectation of the European actors who want the war to end is for Xi to use his influence over Putin. There may even be a task sharing between China and Europe at the point of mediation. In other words, while Xi was trying to persuade Moscow; Macron and other European leaders may also force Kiev to a ceasefire. However, it is thought that Russia is the party that should be discouraged from its goals in order to end the war. For this reason, China is the main actor that comes to the forefront in the mediation discussions regarding the Russia-Ukraine War.
It is not a coincidence that Zelensky invited Xi to Kiev during the diplomatic traffic carried out due to Beijing being perceived as the main center in the search for a ceasefire. Zelensky, in his statement on March 29, 2023, said, “We are ready to see Xi here. I want to talk to him.” he said.[5] Therefore, the phone call between the two leaders and the announcement by the President of Ukraine that an Ambassador will be appointed to Beijing in this context can be interpreted as a harbinger of critical developments both in mediation diplomacy and in the dimension of bilateral relations on the Beijing-Kiev line.
Of course, at this stage, it can be foreseen that Xi will pay a visit to Kiev in the near future. Perhaps in the future, Xi may take his shuttle diplomacy to a new level and propose a trilateral summit or a more comprehensive summit of leaders with the participation of leaders such as Macron, for example, in order to find a middle ground between Putin and Zelensky.
At this point, it should be stated that; there are serious differences in the expectations and goals of Moscow and Kiev regarding the war. This means that it would be too optimistic to expect a ceasefire in the near future. However, the process has revealed that it is unlikely that Washington and London will succeed in their efforts to cut off China from Europe and isolate it from the world like Russia. Because, as of the point reached, Beijing is becoming an important center in the search for overcoming the crises. In this sense, it is possible to state that China’s orientations and the expectations of the EU largely coincide.
[1] “Ukraine’s Zelensky Holds First War Phone Call with China’s Xi”, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65396613, (Date of Accession: 27.04.2023).
[2] @ZelenskyyUa, “I had a long and meaningful phone call with 🇨🇳 President Xi Jinping. I believe that this call, as well as the appointment of Ukraine’s ambassador to China, will give a powerful impetus to the development of our bilateral relations.”, Twitter, https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1651184756623802368, (Date of Accession: 27.04.2023).
[3] “Russia Wants Military Aid from China-Here’s Why This Deal Could Help China, Too”, The Conversation, https://theconversation.com/russia-wants-military-aid-from-china-heres-why-this-deal-could-help-china-too-201284, (Date of Accession: 27.04.2023).
[4] “China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis”, FMPRC, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202302/t20230224_11030713.html, (Date of Accession: 27.04.2023).
[5] “Zelenskyy to Xi Jinping: Come to Ukraine”, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-xi-jinping-ukraine-russia-war/, (Date of Accession: 27.04.2023).
