Europe will face intense and critical events in 2025. The parliamentary, local and presidential elections to be held in many countries are of great importance that can affect political dynamics not only at the national level but also across the continent. The structural and political problems facing the European Union (EU) in particular point to an agenda that will be reshaped with these elections. Issues such as rising populism, economic inequality, migration policies and climate change will be at the center of election campaigns and political discourse.
1. Challenges Expected in 2025
The year 2025 will present a complex political and economic picture for Europe. Dynamics in the international arena have made this situation even more complicated. Europe’s political fragmentation, economic fragility and geopolitical tensions have left the continent facing one of the most dangerous years in its history. Civil unrest in France, upcoming elections in Germany and economic difficulties in the UK have weakened Europe’s leadership capacity. Divides among member states on fundamental issues such as security, energy policy and migration have disrupted the union’s decision-making mechanisms.
Internationally, the war in Ukraine and the tensions in the Middle East have created two main fronts threatening European security. Donald Trump’s second term as president, who won the 2024 elections in the United States (US), has brought profound changes to European-US relations. The reduction of support for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the implementation of protectionist trade policies against Europe have put the continent’s security and economic interests at risk.[1]Russia’s aggressive stance has been further emboldened, especially if the US cuts off support for Ukraine.
In the Middle East, the EU has set various goals to ensure peace and stability in the region. The main priorities include establishing an inclusive administration after the overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria, strengthening efforts for a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine, and finding solutions to problems such as climate, employment and migration in the Mediterranean region.[2]However, unless a common vision is established among EU member states, these goals have become difficult to achieve.
Alongside the US and China, the EU is seen as a third geopolitical power. However, 2025 could test this vision and lead to the union facing a serious geopolitical crisis. This situation could be shaped by two main factors. First, Beijing-Washington relations could suddenly become unexpectedly tense.[3]As the US-China rivalry deepens, the EU could be left out of the equation. The bloc appears to lack both the political will and unity to craft effective policy. This could exacerbate economic problems, particularly chip supply shortages.
Second, Trump’s presidency could be an opportunity for China to reshape its relations with Europe, with Beijing cooperating more closely with EU countries to counter US policies.[4]While some European countries may welcome this cooperation, others may resist, wary of Beijing’s intentions. In this difficult picture, the EU will have to manage its dependence on the US, rising tensions with China, and internal divisions. If a determined stance and unity cannot be achieved, 2025 could be a turning point in which the EU’s geopolitical goals will face major challenges.
It will also be a matter of whether the Nordic and Baltic countries will be able to scale up this comprehensive preparedness approach across the EU in 2025. It is critical that the European Commission integrates resilience into EU systems, taking into account the different capacities and policy frameworks of Member States.[5]But political will remains a decisive factor. It is uncertain, but not impossible, that the Nordic and Baltic countries will export their total defense approach to Europe. The escalation of hybrid attacks from Russia is a phenomenon that is shaking up Europe’s peacetime thinking. Germany, in particular, which is increasingly aware of its defense needs, could play a key catalyst role under its new government.
2. Election Calendar in 2025
The 2024 European elections have largely shaped political dynamics on the continent. The rapid rise of right-wing populist parties and increased anti-EU rhetoric in recent years have heralded radical changes in Europe. In Germany, the growing power of right-wing parties such as the Alternative for Germany (AFD) could threaten the country’s traditional political structure. The AFD’s growing popularity, particularly its anti-immigrant rhetoric and concerns about the future of the eurozone, could have an impact on Germany’s influence and domestic politics in Europe.
In France, the rise of far-right parties has led the country to take a more cautious stance towards the EU as Emmanuel Macron’s presidency draws to a close. The anti-EU rhetoric of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) has posed a threat to the integrity of the Union.[6]France’s future policy has had a direct impact on the EU’s strategies, particularly in economic reforms and immigration policies.
The rapid rise of right-wing populism in Eastern European countries, such as Poland and Hungary, has complicated relations with Russia. The Polish elections may have been a test of the EU’s strength and unity in eastern Europe, especially in countries within Russia’s sphere of influence. Hungary, under Viktor Orban’s leadership, has taken an independent stance against the EU, while its strong relations with Russia have also become a major concern for the EU.[7]The policies of these countries have been one of the determining factors in shaping the EU’s security strategies.
In Southern Europe, local elections, especially in countries such as Italy and Spain, have also stood out as another dynamic affecting the future of Europe. The anti-EU rhetoric of the right-wing government led by Giorgia Meloni in Italy and its possible victory in the local elections may have led to fundamental changes in Europe’s economic strategies. Similarly, the political uncertainty in Spain, especially the debates around Catalonia’s independence issue, have provided clues about how the EU will approach such internal regional crises. Elections in countries such as Norway and Sweden may have serious implications for the future of Europe. Norway’s independent stance outside the EU, in particular, has become a turning point for the continent’s future foreign policy strategies, as populist movements in the country have gained strength.
The year 2025 will be a critical turning point for the political future of Europe. At a time when right-wing populists are gaining power and criticism of the EU is increasing, the continent may experience further divisions, economic crises and social unrest. This has made it necessary to develop an effective political strategy for the EU to remain united and strong. The future of Europe depends not only on the policies of its leaders, but also on how to respond to the demands and concerns of its people. Internal divisions and external pressures have reduced Europe’s global influence, making efforts to preserve the continent’s unity even more important. During this period, the influence of center-right and left parties, as well as far-right and left movements, on the electorate is of great importance. The polarization of voter behavior and changing preferences will be decisive for the future of Europe. As a result, 2025 is a critical turning point that will shape not only national political agendas but also Europe’s democratic structure, economic cooperation and international relations.
[1] Brandon Bohrn & Peter Walkenhorst, “Trump returns four years after the Capitol was stormed”, Global Europe, https://globaleurope.eu/europes-future/major-events-and-trends-shaping-europe-and-the-world-in-2025/, (Access Date: 16.01.2025).
[2] Christian Hanelt, “New EU-Middle East partnerships for 2025: Realistic goals or a toothless ambition?”, Global Europe, https://globaleurope.eu/europes-future/major-events-and-trends-shaping-europe-and-the-world-in-2025/, (Access Date: 16.01.2025).
[3] Cora Jungbluth, “2025 could be the EU’s geopolitical apocalypse”, Global Europe, https://globaleurope.eu/europes-future/major-events-and-trends-shaping-europe-and-the-world-in-2025/, (Access Date: 16.01.2025).
[4] Ibid.
[5] Helena Quis, “Will total defense go European in 2025?”, Global Europe, https://globaleurope.eu/europes-future/major-events-and-trends-shaping-europe-and-the-world-in-2025/, (Access Date: 16.01.2025).
[6] Roman Armangau & Peggy Corlin, “From Germany to Romania: Elections that will define Europe in 2025”, Euronews, https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/12/31/from-germany-to-romania-the-elections-that-will-define-europe-in-2025, (Access Date: 16.01.2025).
[7] “Viktor Orban’s challenger sees strong EU, NATO ties, ‘pragmatic’ approach to Russia”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/viktor-orbans-challenger-sees-strong-eu-nato-ties -pragmatic-approach-russia-2025-01-09/, (Access Date: 16.01.2025).
