The federal elections held in Germany on February 23, 2025 have led to significant changes in the country’s political landscape. These elections were organized as early elections following the dissolution of the current coalition government in November 2024. The election results indicate a significant shift in the political balance in Germany.
1. Election Results and the Government Formation Process
The conservative bloc of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU) became the first party with 28.5% of the vote.[1] This result strengthened the chances of CDU leader Friedrich Merz becoming chancellor. However, since this vote share is not enough to form a government on its own, Merz will inevitably seek coalition partners. Possible coalition options include the Social Democratic Party (SPD) or the Green Party.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party came in second place with around 20% of the vote, the highest share of the vote in its history. The AfD’s rise was particularly pronounced in the former East German regions, where it received over 40% of the vote in some regions. AfD leader Alice Weidel has expressed a desire to form a coalition with the CDU, but Merz has distanced himself from this proposal. Although the CDU received the most votes in the election, the rise of the AfD signaled a significant change, especially in eastern Germany. The rise of the AfD shows that far-right influences in Europe are increasing. The AfD’s alliance with figures such as Elon Musk and JD Vance increases the party’s influence internationally. [2] The intervention of the United States of America (USA) in European politics is visible.
The SPD fell to third place with 16% of the vote, one of the lowest in its history. The Green Party received 13.5% of the vote, while the Left Party (Die Linke) will continue to be represented in parliament with 8.5%. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) received 4.3% of the vote, below the 5% threshold and out of parliament.[3]
In order to form a government, the CDU/CSU needs to reach 316 seats in parliament. With the current voting rates, at least one coalition partner is needed to reach this majority. SPD leader Olaf Scholz has stated that he has no intention of joining a CDU-led government. This raises the possibility that the CDU/CSU could form a coalition with the Green Party. However, coalition talks are expected to be difficult due to the political differences between the two parties.
2. Merz’s Victory and Ideas for the Future
Merz, 69, entered the election promising to solve Germany’s problems within four years.[4] He made a clear departure from Merkel’s more centrist policies by launching a far-right initiative. Friedrich Merz questioned the future of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), stating that the United States was indifferent to the future of this continent and that Europe needed to rapidly strengthen its defenses. In his statement following his election victory, he emphasized the goal of strengthening European unity and pursuing a policy independent of the United States.[5] This approach may herald significant changes in Germany’s foreign policy. He also stated that there are doubts about the future of NATO in its current form and that Europe may need to build its independent defense capability much faster.
Merz stated that Donald Trump sees America as an equal threat to Russia and that Europe is under pressure from these two major security threats. He noted that after the French and British visits to Washington, Germany disappeared for a while on the world stage and that the country should play a more active role in the international arena again. [6] He also stated that Germany wants to continue its military aid to Ukraine, but unlike the French and the British, Germany is not considering sending troops to Ukraine for the time being. As Germany’s defense capacity relies heavily on the 35,000 US troops in Germany, there is concern that a reduction in US military power could jeopardize Germany’s security. [7]
Merz’s political career began in 1994 when he entered the Bundestag, but at times clashed with centrist views within the CDU.[8] In particular, his attempt to tighten immigration laws distanced him from the more liberal approach of the center-right CDU and was seen as an attempt to win the votes of the far-right AfD. Although, this move was criticized by some in his party, it enabled Merz to gain a stronger position on the right wing.[9] This pledge was also seen as an attempt to protect Germany’s social and cultural structure. Merz also aims to restore Germany’s economic growth and revitalize the business world. In economic policies, Merz emphasizes measures such as maintaining the debt brake and corporate tax cuts. However, the strong presence of the AfD and the Left Party in parliament may pose obstacles to the implementation of such policies.
In addition, the election results had wide international repercussions. While US President Donald Trump described the CDU/CSU victory as “a great day for Germany and the US”, the rise of the AfD was met with concern in Europe. Many leaders drew attention to the strengthening of the far right in Germany. French President Macron congratulated Merz with the idea of a “strong and sovereign Europe” and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer congratulated Merz with messages of determination and cooperation.[10] As the political uncertainty in Germany continues, coalition talks are expected to take a long time.
In sum, Germany’s federal elections on February 23rd, 2025 produced results that will significantly change the political structure in the country. The CDU/CSU emerged as the first party under the leadership of Friedrich Merz, while the far-right AfD came in second place with a large increase in votes. Merz called for reducing Europe’s dependence on the US and emphasized the importance of ensuring EU unity. The rise of the AfD reflects voters’ dissatisfaction with current policies and their desire for change. The rise of the AfD could seriously transform Germany’s relationship with the EU.
Although other parties have stated that they will keep the AfD out of the government, the CDU’s shift to the right under Merz’s leadership heralds a new era in Germany’s domestic politics. Policies such as toughening immigration laws and increasing Europe’s defense power are likely to be among the priorities of Merz’s new government. These results may encourage other right-wing populist movements in Europe to gain strength and inspire parties that share similar views. This could threaten political stability in Europe and change the political balance within the EU. The coalition talks in Germany after the elections and Merz’s government formation process will be a critical turning point for Germany’s domestic politics as well as for the future of Europe and the world.
[1] Nette Nöstlinger, Emily Schultheis, Chris Lunday and Hanne Cokelaere, “What’s next after Merz’s conservatives win German election”, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/german-election-results-2025-friedrich-merz-cdu-conservative-party-win-exit-poll/, (Accessed: 23.02.2025).
[2] Sophie Tanno & Nadine Schmidt, “Germany’s far-right may be frozen out of power, but the AfD is now a powerful force”, CNN, https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/24/europe/germany-election-afd-cdu-intl/index.html, (Accessed: 23.02.2025).
[3] Ibid.
[4] Jessica Parker, “Friedrich Merz: Risk-taker who flirted with far right”, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdxnzkyw7n1o, (Accessed: 23.02.2025).
[5] Paul Kirby, “Germany’s conservatives celebrate, but far right enjoy record result”, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgenlw94n3o, (Accessed: 23.02.2025).
[6] Ibid.
[7] Katya Adler, “New German leader signals seismic shift in transatlantic relations”, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpv4n0dg3v3o, (Accessed: 23.02.2025).
[8] Ibid.
[9] Ibid.
[10] Sophie Tanno, Helen Regan, Frederik Pleitgen & Stephanie Halasz, “Merz warns Europe should seek ‘independence’ from US after conservatives win German election – and far-right support surges”, CNN, https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/23/europe/german-election-results-cdu-afd-intl/index.html, (Accessed: 23.02.2025).
